mikes1531
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FundingSecure (FS) in Administration
Overdue loans
Feb 12, 2017 0:58:38 GMT
Post by mikes1531 on Feb 12, 2017 0:58:38 GMT
Prime Central London prices are going down, very little trade at the moment. sb : Thanks for the info. This makes me think I should reconsider the SS loans I'm holding that were made at 70% LTV. Those LTVs are based on valuations made a year ago, so the LTV now might be more like 80%. I would suggest that Frank Knight data needs treating with extreme caution. The slow down in "prime" London is primarily in properties over £2m, where falls of 10-20% over the last 12 months are frequently being reported. Two of the three SS loans I referred to fall into the £2+M classification. (The values are £1.5M, £2.1M, and £3.25M.)
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 11, 2017 2:20:06 GMT
I'm surprised that INPL has remained for new loans. Taking the SS argument that when they hold a loan for a short period that it isn't true P2P - what about when a loan drawsdown before all investors send funds. We've seen several loan drawdown before the 48hr deadline, so I'm sure some of the loan parts where being funded by SS, and in some cases, these parts get dumped on the SM when funds aren't sent in time. Isn't there a very simple solution to this 'problem'? Make a new loan live a few days before it draws down. That would provide ample time for investors to have INPL and still pay for their investment before drawdown.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 8, 2017 23:23:18 GMT
Is improved communication worth a 3/4% drop in rate? Not for me, it isn't. I can't say. I'm still waiting for the improved communication so I can place a value on it.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 8, 2017 23:12:03 GMT
Why is it that this loan is so much more unpopular than other "end of term" loans? With a relatively healthy (for SS) 12 days to term, there are loans which have overrun into many negative days, yet are nowhere near as unpopular on the secondary market as this loan. Another reason is that the loan is approaching negative term, which is when some investors hit the big red button. Also, this is one of SS's larger loans, so there are more parts that can be sold. One way to factor that out would be to calculate the fraction of the loan that's for sale. In this case, that would be 59/4580 at the moment, which is 1.3%.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 8, 2017 22:52:29 GMT
Just look at the timeline for PBL 040 updates - absolute joke... Barclays has made an offer to refinance > Expected repayment > expecting refinance (from non-existing BS) > arranging another loan from friends and family > sale is to complete within 3 weeks > Supposedly refinancing this week > Borrower is working with us to sell the property > The customer is working towards a refinance cooling_dude: You left one out...
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mikes1531
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Lendy (L) in Administration
PBL 040
Feb 8, 2017 22:49:01 GMT
james likes this
Post by mikes1531 on Feb 8, 2017 22:49:01 GMT
However, interestingly, even PBL020 (in default, even according to SS) has only 4.6% available on the SM. I can only assume that investors would rather stay on board the sinking ship, in the hope of earning some interest and being repaid some proportion of their investment, rather than attempt to sell it on the SM.
I just don't get it. There's no point in trying to sell PBL020 parts, simply because they aren't being bought. (OK, a few are being bought -- who knows why -- but it's just peanuts.) I put a part up for sale on 5/Oct, and it's still in the queue. If someone is convinced that investors will receive no more than a portion of their capital when PBL020 finally is settled, then they might as well offer their parts for sale because they have nothing to lose. If, on the other hand, they believe that some accrued interest will be paid, either from sale proceeds or via a PF payment, then they might as well hang onto their parts to allow their accrued interest to continue to increase and possibly increase their return upon settlement. And just to add a further complication, AFAIK, SS never have indicated how a payout that was less than 100% of accrued interest would be allocated among those who have accrued interest. Would they pay the interest accrued to some date? Would they pay a fraction to everyone who have accrued interest? In short, we haven't a clue, so it's not possible to make an informed decision on the relative merits of holding or selling.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 8, 2017 21:52:51 GMT
It seems that the updates from SS have finally put people off buying in to these. Only as long as there are other loans available. If the pipeline continues to provide only a trickle the other loans will disappear first and then people desperate to invest will start buying these. The situation will change in a flash if there's a repayment, as people with positive account balances try to put their money back to work.
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mikes1531
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FundingSecure (FS) in Administration
Overdue loans
Feb 8, 2017 18:43:09 GMT
Post by mikes1531 on Feb 8, 2017 18:43:09 GMT
Prime Central London prices are going down, very little trade at the moment. sb: Thanks for the info. This makes me think I should reconsider the SS loans I'm holding that were made at 70% LTV. Those LTVs are based on valuations made a year ago, so the LTV now might be more like 80%.
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mikes1531
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FundingSecure (FS) in Administration
Overdue loans
Feb 8, 2017 18:35:01 GMT
Post by mikes1531 on Feb 8, 2017 18:35:01 GMT
That one is a bit of a worry. The General Info for this loan -- which is a renewal -- includes... Given the 35.8% LTV and the nature of the loan why is the lack of an update a worry? Steerpike: I wasn't trying to suggest the lack of an update was a worry, though I would have liked to see one. My concern related to the fact that the flat has been on the market for a year now with no takers. That suggests it is overpriced and, if London property prices are declining, becoming even more so. The owner obviously isn't in much of a hurry to sell. How are the payments on the first charge being serviced? Is that why this loan was increased from £115k to £200k when it was renewed six months ago? Are we about to see another large increase -- to £300+k -- for the upcoming renewal?
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 8, 2017 18:18:48 GMT
This would not be a quick sale either if the borrower defaulted. Liz : What made you change your position from... The security looks like an easy sell at auction, but it is a security I'm very unfamiliar with. It might not take that long, since it could be viewed as a reasonably straightforward financial instrument. It would be even easier once the freehold is old enough to have a track record showing how much the 'extras' bring in, but that's not relevant for a short-term FS loan. I'm a bit disappointed that we haven't had any input from FS in response to... I suppose one open question is... If the flats haven't all been sold yet, who is going to pay the lease amount for the unsold flats? In short, is the security generating income at the £12k rate now? Or will it not produce that until all the flats are sold? If the latter, we need fundingsecure to tell us how many flats are generating income now. How about it fundingsecure ? Is the £12k/yr real income now? Or just jam tomorrow?
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 8, 2017 4:27:03 GMT
Thanks for bringing this up. I have not seen this update. I looked at the General update email, dated 4/2/17 and it says No change for this loan. Paul64 Can we have this fixed please? That's an interesting development. If SS put an update on a loan after the last general update and then follow it with another update before the next general update, then the first update after the previous general update never appears in any general update email. What an innovative way of burying bad news! In this case, both the update regarding the additional financing and the subsequent 'No change' update are timed a mere 25 seconds apart.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 8, 2017 4:05:53 GMT
I think we've just witnessed something unprecedented -- a loan event that has turned out to be better than expected! Last update for this loan: 23/Dec/16 "Expecting funds for a 1-month extension to give the borrower time to refinance with another lender." I don't know whether it counts as better than expected. For reasons that I don't understand SS want to exit this loan, and have asked the borrower to refinance. The borrower has failed to refinance, which is potentially a bad sign. If the borrower is providing the funds to cover the extension then it is curious that SS want the borrower to refinance away. Perhaps they're concerned about the value of the property and the ability to achieve a good result if they have to send in receivers. If that's what's stopping other lenders from refinancing, maybe SS have the right idea in keeping the pressure up on the borrower
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 8, 2017 3:58:09 GMT
People taking cash out in march and April to fund ISA''s etc? That's an interesting thought. I wonder if AC will build up extra cash in the QAA as the end of the tax year approaches in order to prepare for this.
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mikes1531
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FundingSecure (FS) in Administration
Overdue loans
Feb 7, 2017 20:15:47 GMT
Post by mikes1531 on Feb 7, 2017 20:15:47 GMT
I'm going to guess 1322375580 is heading the same way. 7 days late with no info i can see to date. That one is a bit of a worry. The General Info for this loan -- which is a renewal -- includes... "no info" above is a bit of an understatement. The loan was activated over six months ago, and its Updates tab says... ...ever! Does this mean fundingsecure have received no info from the borrower in over six months?
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 7, 2017 19:59:11 GMT
The security looks like an easy sell at auction, but it is a security I'm very unfamiliar with. AIUI, the security is basically a £12k p.a. income stream. So the £300k value depends on finding someone willing to make an investment with a 4% yield. I certainly wouldn't, but the valuer thinks it could be done. I suppose they ought to know, because of the business they're in. If interest rates rise, it might become harder to find investors willing to settle for a 4% yield, and that would reduce the price they'd be willing to pay for that £12k of annual income. A 5% yield would suggest a value of £240k, and a 6% yield would suggest a value of £200k. If I'm interpreting the VR correctly, the lease fixes the income at £12k for the first 15 years, so I wouldn't have thought that the prospect of an income increase in 2032 would have much impact on the price the security would fetch if it had to be sold if the borrower defaulted later this year. Which leads me to ask why the borrower wants to take out a FS loan, paying something like 10% of the value of the security to FS and their investors over the next six months. Why not just sell the security now? With interest rates probably more likely to rise than fall in the next six months, ISTM unlikely that they'd get a better price for it later this year. No doubt there's something about this that I don't understand. I suppose one open question is... If the flats haven't all been sold yet, who is going to pay the lease amount for the unsold flats? In short, is the security generating income at the £12k rate now? Or will it not produce that until all the flats are sold? If the latter, we need fundingsecure to tell us how many flats are generating income now.
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