lobster
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Post by lobster on Dec 9, 2019 8:22:01 GMT
Within the "repayments" section there is now something called "monitoring fee" (in addition to the normal "lender principal" and "lender interest" etc). So is the monitoring fee the charge that AC themselves make to the borrower ?
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Dec 4, 2019 7:56:00 GMT
I always struggle to understand the concept of buying a stock (or a stock index) for the yield. As soon as a stock goes ex-dividend the exact amount of the dividend is subtracted from the share price giving no overall loss or gain. However, there are of course tax implications if one wishes to have income rather than capital gain. That is true, but lovers of high yielding stocks (not that I'm one) like them because a steady dividend keeps the share price generally high. There is one theory that the fair price of any share is the time-discounted value of all future dividends. I don't understand that. A steady dividend , or indeed any dividend, lowers the share price by the exact amount of the dividend.
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Dec 4, 2019 7:38:06 GMT
For example I can just pick up a tracker on the FTSE which has a dividend yield of 4-4.5%. Great idea. Plenty of trackers or funds promise great yields but how does that protect your capital? You can find individual shares yielding 7%+ but that’s pretty pointless if Corbyn gets in or Brexit goes to sh1t and equities fall 30%. A 4% yield on a capital reduced by 30% doesn’t look so clever I always struggle to understand the concept of buying a stock (or a stock index) for the yield. As soon as a stock goes ex-dividend the exact amount of the dividend is subtracted from the share price giving no overall loss or gain. However, there are of course tax implications if one wishes to have income rather than capital gain.
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Nov 24, 2019 11:27:53 GMT
I believe that the P2P sector is an early indicator of the health of the whole economy, even the whole world economy.
The whole P2P sector seems to be affected. The weak ones get infected first.
There is a problem with the debt & lending, which is a follow-on off the financial crisis in 2008.
If you study the USA in particular it seems that the banks are borrowing more & more. I think to cover their debt.
Gold might be a good investment.
" I believe that the P2P sector is an early indicator of the health of the whole economy, even the whole world economy." Why should the relatively tiny and immature P2P market be a better economic indicator than those markets traditionally considered to be the best forward indicators, namely the enormously sophisticated global bond market, and also the FX and equity markets ? " Gold might be a good investment." Again , why ? It earns no interest at all (unlike P2P, and most stocks pay a dividend), and gold also has very little utility. Warren Buffet puts it best, albeit a bit tongue-in-cheek : "Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head." Well I'm sure you get the point - apart from the relatively tiny jewellery market, gold is hardly used for anything. A good measure of the value of something is to gauge how life would be without that commodity. eg. a world without iron or nickel would almost unthinkable (no steel for starters) but what about a world without Gold ? Very little disruption compared to most other items of value - damn near "business as usual" tbh.
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Oct 19, 2019 6:55:49 GMT
"After comparing and rescaling two consecutive loan book downloads, I happened to notice that the implied total holding of one of the loans had gone down by a very similar amount to what I'd recently sold[1]."
I don't quite understand this. I would have thought that your sale of a loan would result in the total holding in the access accounts going either up or remaining unchanged ?
This is because, if the access accounts bought the loan units that you were selling, this would result in an increased holding for the access accounts. Or, if your loan units were bought by another "ordinary" account, (myself for example), then I would expect the Access account holding to be unchanged.
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Oct 10, 2019 8:43:40 GMT
I think deposits in the AC automated accounts are much more 'sticky' than the more active minority may think. Most people are likely just to invest and leave. For example, the 1% cashback bonus qualification period ended at midnight on Saturday. Since then only around £2m has left the site which is a drop in the ocean all things considered. Yes, and in addition to this, once the 1% cashback is paid to lenders (due today, 10th Oct) , plenty of that 1% will be invested straight back into the access accounts.
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Oct 1, 2019 22:06:53 GMT
I think we really are getting there - slower than any of us would like, but personally, I reckon we'll have some good news by the close on Friday. Well aren't you the optimist. Still feeling that way? Yup, still feeling exactly the same way. ie. Good news that we will be paid out in full, as promised, but it will take longer than we would like.
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Sept 23, 2019 20:21:39 GMT
Update now coming Friday 27th. I think we really are getting there - slower than any of us would like, but personally, I reckon we'll have some good news by the close on Friday.
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lobster
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SoMo (SM) (formerly BridgeCrowd)
go****ne r**d
Sept 9, 2019 17:53:52 GMT
Post by lobster on Sept 9, 2019 17:53:52 GMT
There was 20k of availability earlier today, but strangely this figure has now jumped to 40k. I would have thought that this loan would have flown off the shelf with such a low LTV.
I quite fancy this loan but for some reason am hesitant to pull the trigger.
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lobster
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SoMo (SM) (formerly BridgeCrowd)
go****ne r**d
Sept 7, 2019 7:15:47 GMT
Post by lobster on Sept 7, 2019 7:15:47 GMT
This loan has just come on with BC, and there is availability right now. According to the website the open market value of this property is £4.0m , but the valuation report puts the value at only £3.85m ?? So because of this , BC are therefore quoting the LTV incorrectly ? Have I understood this correctly ? Thanks
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Aug 31, 2019 10:43:55 GMT
Revised figures to July 2019 now posted, which look much more in line with past performance. Indeed, but unfortunately there were no management accounts to go with the generation update, so we just have to take the numbers at face value. But at least they look credible now. I see there is no availability in any of the 9 loans within the portfolio. I thought that turbine loans had fallen out of favour - clearly not in this case. Personally I think in general that wind turbines are a decent bet, but only after having been fully commissioned , and after having demonstrated a few months of operation in line with (or preferably exceeding) forecasts. They also represent an obvious diversification from property loans.
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Aug 19, 2019 16:50:26 GMT
OK, so I explained the issue to AC in an email, and received the following response (the bold is mine) :
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The 2018 figures were provided with a monthly breakdown of the forecast enabling a more accurate performance figure to be published. We have not received this for 2019 but have requested this from the borrower so we can improve the accuracy of the figures provided rather than using a pro-rata figure of the annual forecast. (i.e. we have simply quartered the total rather than apportioned in accord with seasonality)
We hope to get this with the July generation figures which are due by 26th August and as such, will provide a further update by close of business 2nd September 2019.
In the interim, and indeed our focus to date, has been that the latest Management Information shows all turbines are profitable and all repayments are up to date.
I hope this answers all of your questions.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To my mind, in producing the latest forecast , AC have not "simply quartered the total". The forecasts in the Mar 18 report were the same as for the Mar 19 report which covers the windiest 3 months of the year (Jan-Mar). Both these reports are seasonally adjusted , forecasting relatively high generation for this period. Then , for the Jun 19 report, the forecasts are simply double the Mar 19 report. This is not the same as "quartering the total" , and will inevitably result in forecasts which are far too high, because the figures for the windiest quarter are doubled.
I'll wait to see if anyone wishes to respond to this, and then email the above back to AC first thing tomorrow.
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Aug 17, 2019 15:44:18 GMT
Many thanks for your analysis, dave2 . As it happens, I used the same logic regarding adjusted forecasts as yourself, and therefore produced the exact same revised "Actual vs Forecast" percentages as you for June 2019. Of course we are assuming that the latest actual generation figures are correct, because if they are, then some of the turbines have indeed roared back into action during the second quarter, as you suggested. The second quarter performance of the top turbine in the list , "Win*mill Win*", would be particularly impressive - so hopefully it is genuine. Then what are we to make of the "poor weather conditions for May and June" remark ?! OK - I shall most certainly be taking this up with AC Towers on Monday, and I'll report back here with any progress. With the dismal (and probably erroneous) performances in the latest report, some lenders may well choose to sell out of perfectly good turbine loans. This could land AC in big trouble if it then emerges that these lenders were acting on incorrect data. To be fair though, it's quite possible that the source of the error could lie with the borrower, if they have reported their own forecast figures incorrectly.
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Aug 17, 2019 5:33:31 GMT
There has been a recent update on this suite of 9 turbine loans, with a generation report being produced for all 9 turbines up to the end of June 2019. It is stated in the document that all 9 turbines underperformed due to adverse weather conditions (ie. less wind than expected) in May and June 2019.
I have taken a little time to have a close look at the numbers provided, and I'm almost certain that they are seriously flawed, resulting in totally incorrect "% actual against budget" figures. The bottom line is that, in my opinion, all 9 loans are performing far better than is stated in this latest generation report. However, before I contact AC next week, I would be very grateful if anyone else with an interest in these loans could have a look and see if you agree with my findings, which are as follows :
The figures in the "Forecast Generation to June 2019" column are exactly twice those in the previous generation report for March 2019. As the reports are cumulative, this is suggesting that the generation for Apr-Jun was forecast to be the same as it was for Jan-Mar. This is surely incorrect, because there will obviously be more wind in the winter months of Jan-Mar , than in Apr-Jun. Compare this with the 2018 generation reports for March and June, in which the June forecasts are much less than twice the March forecasts, as one would expect.
The Mar 2018 and Mar 2019 generation reports give identical forecasts for all 9 turbines (except for Ballyduggan, which is probably a typo) , and I would therefore expect the June 2018 and June 2019 generation reports to also give identical forecasts, but they are very different, and I feel confident that the current June 2019 report is using incorrect forecast data.
As mentioned above, I would appreciate anyone's views on this before I take this further. Thanks.
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Jul 19, 2019 7:46:39 GMT
Is the fact that Brightstar have dropped Bridgecrowd important ? Will this have a significant impact on the amount of business they can attract ? Also how about lenders ? Might some BC lenders, particularly women, withdraw from the platform as a response to this ? Sorry - too many questions My concern with the smaller operators such as Bridgecrowd is always platform risk, so I hope this isn't too destabilizing.
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