jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Apr 2, 2017 13:03:55 GMT
I can see why a majority have voted for early mania phase. I sort of feel that way. With IFISAs coming and the FCA authorizations appearing fast, it feels that we could easily see more investors pile in, with yields collapsing. Greed and and a delusion of safety might not be that far away. Like some others have mentioned, however, the issue with that view is that P2P is still far too small and nowhere near-term mainstream enough. Most of us who have been on this forum for a few years are really just "early adopters", part of the stealth phase; mainstream retail investors are not really here yet. The institutions who are investing are similar early adopters. My thought is perhaps that we get a similar cyclical pattern within each phase ( self-similarity). So perhaps we are in the "mania phase" of a broader "awareness phase". There are going to be winners and losers from the IF-ISA battleground and there are so many platforms appearing now it's hard to feel that all can survive. Perhaps it ends with a "bear trap", that for many of us may well feel like a crash but mainstream investors won't even notice because they aren't be involved. Moreover, P2P is hardly a systemic risk to the system given how small it still is. Thanks to everyone who voted. It's difficult to determine where in the cycle P2P lending is, or where it will be, without reference to property prices, given that so many loans across the sector are secured to Property. I don't know the percentage but it might be as much as 40-50%. Therefore P2P lending maybe some way off a bubble, but if property crash tomorrow then its almost certain that a lot of P2P will crash with it.
Its a property price crash that caused the 2008 crash, yes poor lending decisions before which helped to fuel the US housing bubble but its only when property prices in the US started to decline and everyone went for the door at the same time and realised that there were no buyers that caused prices to then collapse and the crash happened.
The difference between then and now was that the poor lending decisions to the US sub prime property drove down yields and self perpetuated, but whilst property lending might dominate P2P lending, P2P only represent a fairly small percentage of property lending or more importantly Bridging finance. The P2P sector is not geared as in other asset bubbles, yes yields will fall as lending becomes more mainstream and there will be some fall out as some sites fail. But P2P needs to grow multi-fold before it becomes relevant in the mainstream.
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 31, 2017 14:07:41 GMT
I think where the SM is at the moment is about perfect. Other than a few hard to shift loans most queues are moving fairly quickly and for a newbie's there is a fair selection of decent loans available.
However personally, how SS have acted in the last few days showing such a lack of regard for investor's have confirmed to me that I want a lot less money in this site, particularly some of the DFL's where I realise in hindsight I got far too large and given the loans are large in themselves can become very illiquid very quickly and will be the first to go bad if we have a downturn.
What I say about SS having no regard, take for example PBL085 that repaid late yesterday evening way after many of us were done for the day. Whereas if that had been MT they would have told us about the repayment and waited till the next day to credit funds whereby we all earn an extra days interest. What a great gesture if SS had done that and it would have cost them all of £1500. Make no mistake SS have only one objective to crank out as many loans as possible at as low a rate as possible and IMO so they can extract maximum value from the site in a sale or funding round. Whilst pushing for profits is all fair but when its on a short term view and never mind the casualties it time to get OUT !
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 30, 2017 15:31:38 GMT
A slew of BHs in this one. Before bringing such a big loan I think FS would have made a few calls to their BH's to ensure their support which IMHO is why its filling so well.
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 29, 2017 12:52:34 GMT
I think it may not have been fully subscribed - if so, its because SS gave insufficient notice of it going live imho. Also, PBL85 hasn't yet been repaid which was supposed to happen before this went live - lets hope this is done sometime today Not surprising under subscribed given the relationship to a bunch of other loans across P2P all at better rates. Another example of SS exploiting their franchise to shove outs loans at inferior rates, I bet PBL167 is not undersubscribed, a bigger loan but at the right rate !
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 28, 2017 21:26:33 GMT
I think SS are intentioned to flood the market. Releasing £6m tomorrow. But given PBL122 will repay tomorrow and they have told us PBL085 will repay before DLF020 draws down that's nearly £5.5mln plus this months interest due in a couple of day that actually more than the new loans. However the point is well made SS appear to want to flood us with new loans with no regard to the SM which by their own admission is meant to be there to facilitate sellers.
Plus given the demise of INPL is it not about time that SS paid interest on selling loan parts (every other site I use does) we are still on risk when selling plus SS have our money, and some selling queues are days long, so why don't they pay us interest. Or like everything they have done recently SS first, second and third and the lenders a very second best last !
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 25, 2017 12:19:08 GMT
Hi, thanks for your message. The new feature is only applicable to deposits. It will not be available on withdrawals for the foreseeable future. Paul Well at the very least you could improve withdrawals to the level of before fast deposits when they all went out between 8am and 10am, not as is now sometime mid-afternoon. If you could do it before, you should be able to do it again.
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 24, 2017 15:15:16 GMT
I've made multiple withdrawals over the past few days and none of them have been actioned either. Poor show SS... That's much more than poor show, there is no excuse or does this mean that SS have cash flow problems ?
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 24, 2017 15:02:19 GMT
But 2nd charge, so junior in rank, it seems.... Hmmm... So maybe it will be a loan in its own right. SS have never done this before; I wonder if this is some FCA rules filtering through? They did the same with PBL059 & PBL072. Although in this case with so much PBL084 on the SM who will want this new loan ?
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 24, 2017 14:26:23 GMT
Friday 24/3- Has anyone had a withdrawal go through today? I requested one yesterday evening and no sign of it as at 2.15pm. Same here, seems SS are getting better and better at taking our money but whole different story when you want it back !
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 22, 2017 16:03:56 GMT
What a difference 1% makes, two loans similar sizes one DFL19 12% Over subscribed and none on the SM and DFL17 11% looks about 50% subscribed given more than £2mln was on the SM after launch and at least 3 more £300k slices have hit the SM yes I think 19 is a better loan but does it really all come down to the 1% ?
Yes I know some will say PBL035 was rolled into DFL19 and PBL073 repaid, but it also followed DFL017 when a lot of the excess funds had already been eaten up and when they SM was fully laden. Whereas DFL017 came first to a fairly barren SM. Just mindless thoughts but still think its interesting how sensitive the rate is. And I have to own up personally also guilty, went for max allocation for 19 and zero for 17.
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 22, 2017 11:32:21 GMT
Not made a withdrawal from SS for a while but my recollection used to get it before 10am but made one last night and not yet received has anyone else received a withdrawal today ?
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 20, 2017 12:40:25 GMT
Another £300k appeared I assume SS that they held back I wonder how much they still hold
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 14, 2017 12:22:17 GMT
RE: "...one whale m~l." Seems strange to be honest... £1,757,657 available at 11:56am Tuesday, 14th March 2017. Yes, 1/4 mill cancelled then the released whale went on an even larger splash on SM, looks like other lenders got -ve balance emails so perhaps just the most egregious were cancelled at first pass. IMHO if the 1/4 million was cancelled through lack of funds then what funds does the whale have for making purchases unless money was put into the account today if so why would SS have cancelled the 1/4 million ?
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 12, 2017 17:01:14 GMT
This very depressing looking at the SM and drooling, I have seen more on the SM at different times but never the variety virtually every loan has availability, I even saw every DFL with availability at the same time including 007.
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Mar 12, 2017 11:11:15 GMT
Only a minority of loans renew or repay on the due date, however about another 40% do renew or repay within a week of due date (usually renew). If there is no action for a week an update will usually appear to investors on loan progress or too give the borrowers often pathetic excuses as to why he has not paid up, although they can be very woolly at times. Of the balance 2/3rds renew or repay within approximately a month of due date and the rest well who knows ? What? 40%? Probably I am unfortunate, as in my experience probably only 10% renew or repay within a week of the due date. A lot drag on for months without any real justification or even a simple explanation of what is going on. This is unacceptable for a lending platform. Actually since I have returned to FS in earnest and invested all my ex SS money I have found that figure to be much better than 40% well over 50%. But each to their own and this is what makes a market, different people with different views.
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