r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Apr 8, 2021 18:18:18 GMT
As a 30-something person yet to be vaccinated, I do have a few niggles about the situation/reporting thereof: 1) It's not the most assuring fact that many other countries restricting AZN are opting for a circa <55 year old cut-off level whilst the UK opts (alone?) for <30 being cool, despite cases being lower in the UK than the majority of other places and the risk to all age groups lower. It smells like a semi-operational decision based on the level of alternative vaccines available. 2) There's a lot of duff maths going about. For example, in trying to reassure, the BBC starts wittering on thusly: "Ten deaths out of 10 million people vaccinated is a one-in-a-million chance. That's roughly the same risk as being murdered in the next month or - if you get in a car and drive for 250 miles - the risk of you dying in a road accident on that journey"Is my risk of being murdered consistent if I happen to live in a Tower Hamlets postcode or in rural Scotland? Is my risk of dying in a road accident consistently the same whether I'm a 18 year old boy racer vs a middle-aged Woman? No and No. See also: risks for plane crashes (is my flight starting in Africa, or not?). It's not as simple as measuring outcomes of a roll of a die, there are always other factors involved. Likewise for AZN they have reported already that younger women may be at more risk than men, so the risk calculation is clearly different (higher) for younger people and clearly different (higher) for women. Whilst a reassuring 20m may have been vaccinated with AZN, how many of those were under 40? I assume a much much smaller number. So, where they have deemed it not being worth a 29 year old person taking the risk of having AZN, I take it with a large pinch of salt that the balance of risk is totally correct for myself and my wife in our mid-thirties. We're healthy, living in a very rural area and not really seeing anyone, so our risk of contracting/spreading is minimal at the moment. All of the above said, I do still recognise the risk is very low and am still intending to take it if offered, though not without some recognition that the equation being presented isn't a total no-brainer with the current information at hand. However, if I was any one of: 1) in my fifties or above 2) living with mid-January case levels 3) overweight 4) doing a people job , then I'd find it a much easier call to make. edit: apologies for overlap with michaelc 's post re: the stats, I had only skimmed through recent posts.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Apr 3, 2021 11:28:29 GMT
As a yet to be vaccinated healthy 30-something year old, based on what I've seen so far I'll still take whatever I'm offered. I've been back in the UK for two weeks, and I'm already fed up with weighing up whether a trip to the supermarket is really worth the risk. I won't deny though that my ears pricked up when I heard that I may receive the Moderna vaccine. As I plan to try and travel to far flung places later in the year, my hope is that the Moderna replicates recent hugely positive findings about the Pfizer vaccine providing 100% protection against even the SA variant. Of course, perhaps AZ will too, I'm not sure if there's a comparable study yet (?) But again, will take whatever I can get, and be very grateful.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 27, 2021 11:27:07 GMT
The treasury committee is waiting for a response from Mr Bailey following his recent appearance (LC&F). I would certainly like to see him appear before the treasury committee to answer questions on Col he certainly knows far more than he has ever said and was disclosed in this letter to Lord Myners. For the record he was first informed of the Col problem on 09-12-2017. I have to wonder whether it might have been easier to actually do his job well rather than spend all of his time perfecting his teflon sheen for future consequences.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 25, 2021 13:39:56 GMT
especially in the warmer weather.
That one went out the window last year my friend.
Warm weather does not prevent spread of COVID.
The only thing that does help in the fight against spread is correct management (Hands, Face, Space and a more recent helping hand from a vaccine).
Well, whether it's directly attributable or indirectly, the effect is still there surely? Even if COVID spreads equally as well in warm weather (and I thought it's optimal temperature was about 4 degrees from memory?), then it's obviously easier for everyone to be outdoors and for the virus to dissipate more quickly in the Summer. Hence the Government pestering me to 'crack a window' on Twitter. Whilst I appreciate Brazil's pain now despite being mostly a warm country, it also seems unlikely to me to be coincidence that the whole of Europe simultaneously had flattened curves from Jun-Aug. Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong. Not saying it's a silver bullet though - Spain's cases started rising in August (although nothing like Autumn/Winter levels).
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 25, 2021 12:09:30 GMT
I don't think I've seen a more puff piece bit of COVID news than this pub vaccine passport stuff.
I'm more minded to think this is just scaremongering rather than actually seriously being considered, mainly as I just can't see any possible reasonable scientific basis for it.
If nearly everyone is actually having the vaccine, the risk of a significant spread of the virus by not doing this seems very unlikely - especially in the warmer weather.
And, as Ed Milliband pointed out "indeed if it was necessary, why would you be leaving it up to individual landlords? If this was really a public health measure, you wouldn’t be saying, ‘Well, it is going to be a landlord discretion.’ You’d be saying, ‘This is the government’s view, this is what’s safe.’ So there are many, many unanswered questions about this.”
Also, if left to their discretion, what pub landlord in their right mind would be the one in town to insist on it?
edit: thinking further, perhaps the spate of articles about having sex with facemasks on and in less contagious positions perhaps beat it.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 25, 2021 11:26:30 GMT
Poland and Ukraine's situation at the moment look horrendous. The share of tests coming back positive in Poland/Ukraine are circa 28%. For comparison, most EU countries are <8% and UK is 0.5%. Poland had 30,000 cases today with a population of 37m, so to put this in comparable terms with the UK you could call it roughly 58,000 cases if it happened here, and that itself would be a dramatic underestimate. They are apparently going to be locking down further, which is frankly essential because a) the ICU's are full and b) the Polish would otherwise definitely mostly meet up for Easter (and many still will regardless!). Easter being tremendously more observed/involved there than here. You may be surprised to learn exactly that did happen here in the UK (you were perhaps abroad at the time). For the first two weeks of January, we were regularly posting 50,000+ new cases per day (and some areas were reporting 25% of tests positive IIRC). New cases here peaked as high as 68k on Jan 8th. Sure, I remember - I remember thinking "Jesus, am I really going to have to come back to that?" But, at least according to the same dataset , even at the very peak of the UK's woes we were only seeing 13% of tests returned positive overall. In November, Poland managed the feat of fully 50% tests returning positive. At the time they were apparently refusing tests to anyone except those who literally pitched up at hospitals in a bad way. It does make you wonder just how many cases Poland would have now if they tested to the same extent as the UK.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 24, 2021 17:42:29 GMT
Well, I've just had the NHS T&T e-mail informing me that I've been in contact with someone who's tested positive. Date coincides with my journey to the UK, so seems a racing certainty that it was someone on the flight. So that now leaves me doubly quarantined I suppose. Quarantined as I've come into the UK, and quarantined again as someone on the plane had it. I can live with that, just as long as I don't get the hat trick of being quarantined with COVID (we have no symptoms but also no results yet back from the crappy day 2 testing provider) Not nice. Hope you get negatives and if I recall you're in your 30s so really you should be ok whatever happens. Was that the nhs T&T app that picked it up or just you were manually tracked down as (you guess) being on the same flight? I suppose it could have been someone in the arrivals hall ? I assume it will be the passenger locator form, which also includes the allocated seat numbers. Though the stewardesses were unusually sanguine, even encouraging, about everyone switching their allocated seats so it's all a bit meaningless really. We weren't really near anyone for the rest of the journey (despite being on 2 separate trains - both totally empty).
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 24, 2021 16:42:09 GMT
Well, I've just had the NHS T&T e-mail informing me that I've been in contact with someone who's tested positive. Date coincides with my journey to the UK, so seems a racing certainty that it was someone on the flight.
So that now leaves me doubly quarantined I suppose. Quarantined as I've come into the UK, and quarantined again as someone on the plane had it. I can live with that, just as long as I don't get the hat trick of being quarantined with COVID (we have no symptoms but also no results yet back from the crappy day 2 testing provider)
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 24, 2021 13:47:39 GMT
Poland and Ukraine's situation at the moment look horrendous. The share of tests coming back positive in Poland/Ukraine are circa 28%. For comparison, most EU countries are <8% and UK is 0.5%. Poland had 30,000 cases today with a population of 37m, so to put this in comparable terms with the UK you could call it roughly 58,000 cases if it happened here, and that itself would be a dramatic underestimate. They are apparently going to be locking down further, which is frankly essential because a) the ICU's are full and b) the Polish would otherwise definitely mostly meet up for Easter (and many still will regardless!). Easter being tremendously more observed/involved there than here.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 23, 2021 15:50:28 GMT
Add to that the unknown of how long the UK's red list will continue and which countries will be on it. Then there are the queues which can be up to 7 hours on return. You know part of this reminds me of the "Hostile Environment" the government (T May ?) created to deal with illegal immigration. Its designed to influence behavior and is fuzzy. THe rules under which we all live should be very clear and easy for a court ultimately to decide upon. We've got to the stage where individual bobbys and check-in clerks are making these decisions. I think I'm in an even worse situation (and I don't want to compete in our misery!). My family and disabled 3 year old twins are living with my wife and their mother the other side of Europe. I want to join them and possibly bring them back here. That doesn't sound like a holiday to me but its not a funeral and its not a wedding and more importantly its not clear under what rules I can leave. I've read the rules many times and it doesn't seem black and white. Perhaps its a childcare bubble. But it all reads like a bubble is formed within the UK although nowhere does it state that. I'll only really know when I turn up at Heathrow or wherever. I see what you mean. You'd probably be ok with some common sense applied, but you shouldn't have to rely on a border guard being reasonable, as sometimes they're not. I can understand they simply want to limit millions of people holidaying at the same time. I think it's actually less to do with variants and more to do with the logistical nightmare it would create (my returning back now hasn't been entirely smooth, so I can imagine a normal July would be impossible). I do however think they need to improve the legislation somehow, as you have scenarios like ours (you do indeed 'win') where it feels like we're being criminalised for having the temerity to leave the UK. The one thing I will say is that queues at Gatwick in my case were non-existent. It was only our plane arriving and there were 7-8 border guards, so through in 10 minutes. But with 5-6 forms/test results to process for each passenger, clearly not even remotely practical for normal Summer holidays.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 23, 2021 15:20:14 GMT
Probably no surprise to anyone who's read my previous comments related to it, but I do find the travel ban news quite disturbing.
I understand why some people are disinterested or actively think it's a good idea even.
But consider this scenario, my scenario in fact. I'm likely to be permitted to leave the country this Summer as I have a family wedding to attend. However, I will also have signed a form to say I'm going for that reason, and there is a large fine applied to those going on holiday.
So in theory will I be breaking the law if I then go from the wedding to the seaside in that country for a few days afterwards or indeed just go off from there elsewhere and live my life for a few months outside of the UK? Technically, I think so, or at least against the spirit of the law, I'm not sure.
I find that a bit dark. I mean, put whatever requirements you like on my return. I'm already right now now forking out to quarantine separately from my family and paying £210 each for my wife and to be tested 2x after having been tested in where I left from. Presumably there will be similar requirements for inbound travellers over the Summer.
But what right do they have to effectively try and limit my purpose abroad once I'm there if I choose to stay there? That has nothing to do with them as far as I'm concerned, or it shouldn't do.
I wonder if any other European countries are doing likewise for the Summer? Presumably not if Schengen is to persist.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 23, 2021 12:16:32 GMT
To be fair, I know you diversify heavily Ace , so your risks are minimised in the worst scenarios. I'd still say though that one does risk being left with a pretty minimal return and a lot of admin/work to achieve it.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 23, 2021 12:07:24 GMT
As usual, there's a lot of sense in what you say, and I can't compete with your understanding of how financial institutions operate. However, the over-generalisation that all P2P is "nuts and incredibly high risk" is OTT. There are quality P2P offerings by professional and competent platforms that simply don't warrant this level of denigration. Take CrowdProperty as an example. Far from being a lender of last resort, they are specialist property lenders that offer a professional service to borrowers that aren't matched by the banks. Many SME property developers now use them as a lender of first resort. They give excellent risk adjusted rewards to their investors. They've resisted the temptation to lower their lending criteria through a sustained period of popularity, showing that they are committed to developing a long term sustainable business. Sure, there are endemic problems in P2P that need to be addressed, not least the pathetic regulation, but that doesn't make all P2P uninvestable, IMO. What makes you so confident that CrowdProperty (or any P2P platform) is so bulletproof though, Ace? There are a whole barrage of risks that they themselves list on their website, and that's just the ones they fancy declaring. I'd bet that they don't list the risk of their wind-down plan not being worth the paper it's written on, or the possible event of insolvency practitioners stripping every last piece of flesh off the bone before spitting out the carcass. Yet we've seen precisely that happen on numerous occasions. How about they turn out to be a bunch of frauds who aren't even registering charges properly or at all, or just siphoning off cash elsewhere? I don't see that risk there either, but it is one. For all of these risks and more, we then are typically asked to accept either a <5% return for a "safe" investment or up to 12% for what is in reality incredibly risky. It's just not worth it, in my opinion. Not for anything beyond play money anyway. (Again, I have nothing personally against CP, I am talking very generally here).
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 22, 2021 14:50:25 GMT
On this. Is my understanding correct that we get those people in the stats who've just about managed to catch a small dose of COVID and then been hit by a lorry? If that is right, then I guess we'll always see some "COVID-19 deaths", but they may well be people who died with rather than from COVID - ? I thought they had stopped that silliness, but perhaps not! They may have done, honestly not sure. What I do know is that Poland split out their report into dying of/from, and the number reported on Worldometers is the combination. Hence my (possibly incorrect) assumption.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 22, 2021 14:43:02 GMT
Does anyone know if there are figures about how many people that have been hospitalised or died from C-19 had been vaccinated at least 3 weeks prior to admission? It is claimed the vaccines prevent severe illness and death so hopefully very few or none. On this. Is my understanding correct that we get those people in the stats who've just about managed to catch a small dose of COVID and then been hit by a lorry? If that is right, then I guess we'll always see some "COVID-19 deaths", but they may well be people who died with rather than from COVID - ?
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