starfished
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Post by starfished on Jan 16, 2024 20:28:00 GMT
Over 15% and steadily increasing...
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starfished
Member of DD Central
Posts: 296
Likes: 216
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Post by starfished on Sept 29, 2023 17:46:22 GMT
Depends oh how big a company you work for, I am not allowed to give work references even if I wanted to where I work. They must come from HR and they will say the minimum. The best and worst person who has worked for me would get the same reference (and that has been the case for all three companies I have worked at recently).
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starfished
Member of DD Central
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Post by starfished on Sept 2, 2023 18:35:24 GMT
I have never been into PBs b/c by definition you cannot reach their quoted average* since the Law of Averages (over time) will drag you back to whatever the effective mean payout is. This 'true mean' must exclude the very top tier prizes which distort the total fund value of prizes. So. in 1995, for instance, PBs were then quoting '5.2%' average whereas 98% (then £50 or £100) of all prizes available constituted only about three quarters of this - and thus for 98% of ALL prizewinners therefore the average payout was not '5.2%' but more like '3.9%'. Oh, how people don't like to hear this because - anecdotally at least - many can report strings of 'above average' rate of prize wins (NOT 'above average' prize values of course - they're all inline with that 98% chance covering ALL possible prizes) Inevitably this observation is weighted toward NEW investors experiencing 'non average' rates of winning b/c the Law of Averages requires time to settle in to reveal the true average. Rather than looking at the first 6 months in isolation, looking at the first 12, 18, 24 etc will expose this. Another way of thinking about this 'truth' is that by holding on to PBs for longer you "can't take your luck with you" and the longer you chance that luck the more your returns will be governed by whatever the 'true' average return is. I assume the average payout has gone up significantly this year following base rate increases - meaning the prizes are now easier to win, or higher in value (or both) but, notice, you will only be tracking a losing position. The real winners here are the government, which succeeds in devaluing its debts. (* I keep my £1 bond bought for me as a child as the best strategy.) Rationally I agree with all of this. But always had a soft spot for PB (probably for the same reason P2P appealed), it lends itself well to unnecessary spreadsheet work. So like agent above, I have always tracked. While my luck was above average and will remain so until 2026 if I win nothing more (above 100% on the graph means I have higher than expected winnings), until the last batch it was below what I could get from a savings account. PB a lot more fun though
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starfished
Member of DD Central
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Post by starfished on Sept 2, 2023 10:27:33 GMT
Because I cannot tell anyone else £5,000 😮
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starfished
Member of DD Central
Posts: 296
Likes: 216
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Post by starfished on May 22, 2023 15:28:59 GMT
Has anyone been able to successfully withdraw from LW in the last fortnight or so. I have regularly withdrawn in the past once the account hit £50 with no problem. However, last week the button to withdraw was now disabled. I contacted them via their chat service and still no response. Anyone else had any joy?
Added - To clarify it looks like I can now withdraw but I can't change the AMOUNT to withdraw. It defaults to all the cash in the account.
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starfished
Member of DD Central
Posts: 296
Likes: 216
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Post by starfished on Jan 3, 2023 20:01:10 GMT
An interesting concept starfished . Discussing what a sensible capital loss assumption is for each platform probably warrants a whole thread of its own, but here's a couple of points that jump out at me: If I've understood you correctly, for many of your platforms your assuming a capital loss equivalent to around 2 year's interest. So you'd need to invest for 2 years before you start to show a profit! Is it really worth investing in them at all if you're that pessimistic? You seem to be assuming the same loss rate on ABLrate (a high risk platform in wind-down that has already had some losses) as for Loanpad (largely recognised as the lowest risk platform out there)! And that losses on EM and CP, neither of which have declared any losses to date, will be even higher! I guess that I must have misunderstood. No I think you have understood perfectly! My only comment is that the risk reduction factor is trying to pick up more than just losses on individual loans but also something for generic "platform risk". The two years proxy more forces me to think longer term and not get overexcited about early gains and also later losses. I think my emotional response to some losses has been more muted compared to others because to some extent they were anticipated. Which brings us to your second point about it being worth it. On purely financial grounds. No. But I do (still) enjoy the other things that come with P2P for now. On ABLrate that is a very fair challenge. That 10% hasn't been revisited for over 2 years and their business model has changed significantly since then. I'll revise that up to 15% (note the average rate will apply to ALL P2P balances not just ABLrate). On Loanpad, even in the early days, I think I have always had an irrational suspicion of property loans (and business loans). Which is why I see it more risky than pawn type loans from unbolted. Despite the positive noise on Loanpad I can't bring myself to give it a 5% rating (after Zopa no one else has managed a 0% rating). CP has a higher rating than Loanpad purely as a consequence of there being more negative noise on the boards about how they operate. Sadly operational deficiencies can be an indicator of future issues. Not necessarily due to malicious intent but just a business having too much on its plate so things can get missed/problems magnify. Elfin market is very new to me and also very opaque. After a year or two I probably will bring that down to something similar to Loanpad.
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starfished
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Post by starfished on Jan 2, 2023 14:13:24 GMT
(Upfront apologies could not figure out an easy way to put in tables)
Partly because I joined Zopa pre regulation, I always embedded a capital loss assumption into the yield calculation as follows below. Nowadays all it serves to do really is supress the return on unbolted.
Days late Capital Loss
15 25%
30 50%
45 75%
60 100%
When Ratesetter came on the scene I also introduced a risk reserve. It was due to the noise on the boards at the time that Ratesetter had to be more risky than Zopa. 5% reduction was applied to Ratesetter and 0% to Zopa. However, the weighted average is applied to ALL p2p balances. The current reduction factors are as per below, with no real science behind it just a combination of gut feel and board noise. This is in addition to the above days late reductions.
5% Abundance
5% Unbolted
10% Ablrate
10% Loanpad
15% Moneything
15% Lending Work
15% Elfin
15% CrowdProperty
XIRRs (implicitly includes the above adjustments)
Closed (date is when i joined)
Zopa 14/07/2010 3.2%
Ratesetter 26/02/2011 4.5%
IsePankur 23/12/2012 9.3%
Bond Mason 29/01/2017 6.3%
Connective L 16/02/2021 9.8%
Administration & Withdrawing
Funding Secured* 03/09/2013 9.6%
Moneything** 12/06/2016 -4.3%
Lending Works 27/01/2018 3.1%
Ablrate 15/12/2020 4.5%
Rest Loanpad 07/04/2021 2.5%
CrowdProperty*** 24/05/2022 -1.8%
Elfin 06/07/2022 3.8%
Unbolted**** 07/12/2017 3.0%
Abundance + Triodos**** 21/11/2012 1.7%
* Only 2 loans left, value written down to nil
**c. 20 loans parts left, most written down to nil
***Impacted by the risk reserve and limited interest paid to date
**** Trying to increase balance
I have some tester money in the House Crowd and Property Partner. Never got around to building proper spreadsheets for them before I decided against them.
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starfished
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Post by starfished on Sept 28, 2022 22:59:16 GMT
Not sure of tied to the above issue or not but do others find that their total cash available is reconciling to their expectations? For example comparing the total available at a portfolio level against the individual loan data?
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starfished
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Post by starfished on Aug 15, 2022 11:19:57 GMT
Have you had a look at Wisealpha.com? They have been going for years and rather than investing in small companies/individuals you buy fractional bonds in companies like Virgin Media, Asda, RAC, EDF etc. I have been using them for years and up until now never had a problem. My current yield is showing as 7.0% They make money by taking a 1% fee every year (paid out of your interest) and a 0.25% fee if you sell a bond. Selling bonds is through the secondary market, so you can only sell if someone buys. If you have any questions, I am happy to answer them Genuine question why this route over an investment platform like HL or YouInvest? On paper HL et al would appear to be safer enties and yet do the same thing? I know nothing about Wise Alpha so definitely missing something.
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starfished
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Posts: 296
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Post by starfished on Jul 27, 2022 19:13:19 GMT
Some may debate if still appropriate but we mustn't lose sight of what were the BBC's initial role (probably in that order):
To Inform, Educate, Entertain...
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starfished
Member of DD Central
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Post by starfished on Jul 18, 2022 19:39:51 GMT
Let us hope that the orderly run down works better than it did for MoneyThing.
We have seen that once the business goes to minimum cash flow in a run down phase, it takes very little to push it into administration. I really hope that history does not repeat itself with the same thing happening to Ablrate.
In Moneything's case you had a vocal minority calling for administration as well. In their position I would have probably caved in sooner. I hope everyone has now learnt enough about administration to understand that is never the better option.
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starfished
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Post by starfished on Jul 18, 2022 18:41:08 GMT
Is someone willing to share their email here? I have not received an email on wind up yet...?
Probably in the junk email folder !
[snip]
Thanks! Nothing in Junk folder. All I have had from them today was an email on repayment on the LAR stock loan. Odd. I'll follow up if it doesn't show up by tomorrow.
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starfished
Member of DD Central
Posts: 296
Likes: 216
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Post by starfished on Jul 18, 2022 18:19:27 GMT
Is someone willing to share their email here? I have not received an email on wind up yet...?
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starfished
Member of DD Central
Posts: 296
Likes: 216
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Post by starfished on Jun 14, 2022 19:32:16 GMT
With the recent exposure change, I have inadvertently ended up with a larger amount in a loan "2DFDCA790" than I would have liked*. In any case, I have sold part of a loan in the past, but I don't seem to be able to find it now. Can someone remind me? Thanks *my gold setting, which had the maximum amount for the three loan categories, seemed to have now been carried over to everything. I think they should have applied someone's lowest setting when making this change... I looked for this and couldn't find it. I'm assuming the facility to sell has been removed without informing lenders. Thanks for confirming I wasn't going mad. Unbolted have made a number of missteps recently. I do hope it is not a sign of more concerning aspects...
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starfished
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Post by starfished on Jun 14, 2022 19:15:01 GMT
With the recent exposure change, I have inadvertently ended up with a larger amount in a loan "2DFDCA790" than I would have liked*. In any case, I have sold part of a loan in the past, but I don't seem to be able to find it now. Can someone remind me? Thanks
*my gold setting, which had the maximum amount for the three loan categories, seemed to have now been carried over to everything. I think they should have applied someone's lowest setting when making this change...
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