gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
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Post by gibmike on May 19, 2019 22:50:36 GMT
In the past I have made several trades on stocks which I considered to have been adversely and incorrectly damaged by bad press. These have included Barclays, Rolls Royce, Partygaming (as was) and Tesco in the past.
These are my "quick buck" buys, where I hold the position for 3-6 months depending on the rebound.
Thomas Cook, Debenhams, House of Fraser etc. are companies that are/have suffered from more than bad PR, but shockingly bad cash flow.
In this instance I cannot see where the rebound is going to come from unless there is a new CEO, merger or takeover.
I'm out!
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gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
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Post by gibmike on May 7, 2019 21:35:32 GMT
Never had a call, or an email, or even a ping.
Happy about that as I am as anti-social as they get.
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gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
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Post by gibmike on May 7, 2019 19:11:32 GMT
To confirm, no.
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gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
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Post by gibmike on Mar 23, 2019 12:05:23 GMT
I am one of those who was waiting for the two OH loans to be paid back and I had earmarked this loan but I am hoping to use the SM in May and get at par or discount.
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gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
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Post by gibmike on Mar 7, 2019 20:53:10 GMT
I have read everything fully and most of what I was going to type has been covered in previous posts so I will try to look at the crypto business side only.
The background of the originator is good. A successful director with a track record of good success and also a relatively good net worth. Tick.
Now to the loan.
At first I thought this loan was going to cover the cost of creating a hash farm on which they sell the hash power from their miners. This would give an income as the costs are covered by the investors paying for the electricity etc. (see hashflare.io/ no affiliate link added here for example). We would then have a farm paid for by us via the loan and income secured by the mining investors. We would have a return pretty much guaranteed as the miners have to buy 6/12/24 month contracts.
Given what they are planning to do, I would not bring a mining farm to the UK, colder climates (Finland/Iceland/Russia) have natural cooling which is a massive part of the cost. Yes, they have an energy company which is owned by the said director of this company (which pays his other company £X pa) but the numbers seem at best "light" and at worst "overly simplified". These numbers need to be expanded. In addition to this, we have not been supplied the hashrate of the farm and in turn the potential of the mining. Difficulty only really goes up with the price (more profit = more miners being turned back on and in turn a higher difficulty) so given they have flatlined the income over three years I would expect them to say for example 500 GH/s which would not give away the trade secrets but give us some indication of daily revenue (other than a static income) at present.
In addition to this, the machinery is a problem. Many farms sold their miners by WEIGHT rather than unit recently as the value decreased significantly to the point where you could buy 200kg of mining equipment. A good example is the L3+ Antminer (ASIC miner). this cost around $1500 in January 2018 and today around $200. I knoew they are buying GPU based machines which they expect to be able to sell the graphics cards to recoup their cash. I doubt they can recoup that over an 18 month period. This worries me.
I can see a situation where the assets have devalued to the point where we are at a 150-200% LTV. Additionally, I can see BTC (not BTH as they state on the website!) reaching 6-9,000 USD so this would double-treble their income.
Therefore I would say this is speculative with a slant towards "it will work out ok". Certainly not the usual loan and I agree with previous posters asking for it to be an amortizing loan.
Apologies if this is rambling, I have tried to be constructive and not cover existing poster's comments.
Mike
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gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
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Post by gibmike on Mar 6, 2019 19:21:14 GMT
I know a lot about the industry Badly Drawn Stickman so will be looking at this very closely and feedback (if anyone is interested).
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gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
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Post by gibmike on Feb 28, 2019 21:39:39 GMT
Agree on the confidentiality but it does smack of common sense and does do what I expect platforms to do, act sensibly.
Well done AC.
This coupled with the actions of ABLrate on certain loans has strengthen my opinion of them both.
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gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
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Post by gibmike on Jan 25, 2019 18:25:40 GMT
Fantastic, i will go and have a look. ty.
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gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
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Post by gibmike on Jan 25, 2019 13:19:59 GMT
just checked my email account and no email, is it anywhere on the website?
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gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
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Post by gibmike on Jan 24, 2019 20:01:52 GMT
I have been with AC for a while and the Interest Rate drop was something I mentioned last year when we had a reply (from Stuart I think) giving the reasons and their thinking behind it.
At the time I was leaving LendInvest as they too were going from 10% towards 4.5% and it is blatantly obvious that AC are going this way. The newcomers to AC probably want the safety of the 30D acc and the property back account which is great but I have always been an MLIA guy.
I am not actively leaving, just keeping my balance as there are other platforms offering 8%+ plus other ways to make 8% online.
Shame, but market forces and a whole raft of other reasons are pushing the rates down.
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gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
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Post by gibmike on Jan 21, 2019 23:03:00 GMT
I use trusty excel and track everything in a couple of simple tables:
Year by Year
Current year % profit (or loss)
Annualised return (only for P2P)
This gives me a few simple numbers:
- what i have made and lost by platform - what my target return is and how far away i am - what my future return could be
I update it a few times a week and use it to move money around on a monthly basis.
Worked for me for the last 2.5 years and I don't think any program could replicate it with more information than I need.
Mike
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gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
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Post by gibmike on Nov 30, 2018 19:39:52 GMT
I have read with some interest the wide and varying views on here about disaster/ hope/ worry/ opportunity and a lot of it has merit combined. The issue is so complex that I picked one person to listen to and this was the person:
This was written in 2014, some time before the charade came about to the state we are in now. He argues many points (not being an economist I can only blink and nod at a lot of the numbers) that as a layperson I can understand. It is simple to read and explains it all.
Anyway that is not answering the topic. Here is what I think will happen in the short term (2-3 years):
Increase in Loan Interest Rates The market will suffer but in turn your return should increase to counterbalance the risk. Whether this be via discounted loans or increased interest rates
Revaluations of Property
I would argue that any dramatic impact on property prices should be reflected in the LTV of all loans on platforms. Especially 3/4 year plus loans
Defaults I expect to see loans default as a result of "Brexit" with many using it as an excuse to stop payments/ liquidate themselves
So some ups and some downs reflecting the effect of Brexit but overall the world needs P2P platforms to fill the gap left by the banks. There are still a huge amount of entrepreneurs in the UK who I believe are the wealth generators and will find profit in anything. The chancers are here and will always be here.
I am slowly reducing my P2P holding, but as a result of the performance of individual than anything else. I am holding my cash in a few monthly payment funds (1 GBP and 1 USD) which are asset backed (rather than a fund of stocks) to build a chunk of cash to move back in if the market is favourable or keep outside earning me 8-10% per annum.
As a few people have said, irrespective of Brexit, this is a risky game and your money can be tied up for years in defaults so be careful.
I'll stop now, I think I have sent myself off to sleep!
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gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
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Post by gibmike on Nov 28, 2018 22:56:53 GMT
I was only thinking the other day "i wish we had a filter to show future payments rather than see late payments" and here it is!
Thanks, big (albeit minor) improvement.
As for the loans, an update with future solutions would be much appreciated.
Mike
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gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
|
Post by gibmike on Oct 28, 2018 10:52:30 GMT
I took one bite of a loan on the SM when it dropped to 75%. Could not resist.
I do think it is people simply removing an amount of risk from their holdings which is understandable. However at present we do not have enough information to see the impact across the loans.
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gibmike
Member of DD Central
What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Posts: 255
Likes: 159
|
Post by gibmike on Oct 26, 2018 22:47:24 GMT
First loan in a long while I have looked at and thought "punt" (the other being a pub near a train station some months ago which was withdrawn).
I do DD and read into locations//business etc. as I do on Assetz but this is just a touch too far for me.
Many of the loans look ripe and juicy but this is just too green for me...
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