scc
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Post by scc on Mar 31, 2020 1:50:56 GMT
Me too. I don't think I have anything more to contribute. I finished getting out of P2P last Friday (I started two months ago once it became clear what was coming) so no real reason to stick around for now.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 30, 2020 22:35:08 GMT
I agree most police are pretty grand, and to use a well worn cliche - some of my best friends are in the police service. However, I'm always going to call out poor behaviour on their part because that's what we do in a democracy. It's both our right, and our responsibility, as a citizen to do so - whatever the extenuating circumstances. Police states don't happen over night being driven by bad actors, but little by little by good people thinking they are doing their best and making mistakes that aren't sufficiently challenged. More broadly, this just illustrates the often made point - a law written in haste is often a poor one. That's why we need short sunset clauses on these - and an effective opposition.
Are you for real ?
I'm as real as ex-supreme court justice Lord Sumption and the National Police Chiefs Council and College of Policing who have all made similar points to me: www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/30/uk-police-guidelines-coronavirus-lockdown-enforcement-powers-following-criticism-lord-sumptionHow about you?
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 30, 2020 17:53:45 GMT
I'd respectfully suggest that telling shops off for selling easter eggs and chucking dye into beauty spots is a long way from doing your absolute best. Especially, if it means that Downing St has to get involved and clarify that "yes, it is fine for shops to sell easter eggs". Going beyond what the legislation describes just wastes everyone's time inc. plod's, creates unnecessary ill-feeling and creates the suspicion that some are on a power trip. In general I think the police are pretty good and don't want to go around bossing normally law abiding people around. There probably are cases of them being over zealous. The government/parliament in their law partly posted above leaves a lot of the interpretation of the law open. Going to the shop solely to buy an easter egg probably couldn't be argues as obtaining essential supplies. Nor could visiting an elderly father for his birthday IMO. But its just my opinion and this really is wide open. It should be for the government to produce detailed guidlines for the police to follow. As it stands the rules seem too vague and thus each police area will interpret them differently as well as implementing them differently. I do agree there probably are some "over bossy" police officers who will love this but I think, certainly I'd like to think, they are in the minority. The fault rests with government. I suspect they don't want to over clarify because they will then be seen as petty as some of the police forces. I agree most police are pretty grand, and to use a well worn cliche - some of my best friends are in the police service. However, I'm always going to call out poor behaviour on their part because that's what we do in a democracy. It's both our right, and our responsibility, as a citizen to do so - whatever the extenuating circumstances. Police states don't happen over night being driven by bad actors, but little by little by good people thinking they are doing their best and making mistakes that aren't sufficiently challenged. More broadly, this just illustrates the often made point - a law written in haste is often a poor one. That's why we need short sunset clauses on these - and an effective opposition.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 30, 2020 17:11:18 GMT
I'd respectfully suggest that telling shops off for selling easter eggs and chucking dye into beauty spots is a long way from doing your absolute best. Especially, if it means that Downing St has to get involved and clarify that "yes, it is fine for shops to sell easter eggs". Going beyond what the legislation describes just wastes everyone's time inc. plod's, creates unnecessary ill-feeling and creates the suspicion that some are on a power trip.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 30, 2020 16:11:37 GMT
For me, it is about sensible interpretation of the law by citizens and police.
Seven hours is rather a long walk, but if you are in the middle of nowhere, unlikely to injure yourself, self-supporting and it's your normal exercise - go for it.
I cycle to the shops once a week, run 3 times a week (usually for 90 mins) and mountain bike twice a week for 1-2 hours. I live in the middle of nowhere so apart from the shops, I doubt I see more than a dozen people a week (usually at distance in their gardens/elsewhere on the hills).
Thankfully, (outside of shopping in town) I can go for months without seeing any evidence of the police's existence around here. I can't see that changing.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 29, 2020 5:02:52 GMT
It’s a bit like panic buying imo. It’s caused by people trying to gain some control of a situation that they have little, if any, control over. Whether it’s buying loo rolls or getting cash out of RS, it’s panic buying. In RS’s case you pay to RYI, hopefully you get your cash into a safe haven. If RS collapses (and it might) you have paid up to 1.5% in an attempt to save more significant losses. It could all blow over. Things may improve in 3, 6, 9 or 12 months. Who knows? If this pandemic isn’t brought under control within 12 months then having cash in a safe haven may be little comfort. How much is an online funeral after all?Money matters are always important. Right now, staying safe, staying home is far more important. GLA gg And for balance, the chance of you needing to pay for a funeral (never mind your own) are tiny. The death rate will turn out to be well under 1% of those infected. I'll take those odds and assume I'll be around to spend/save/invest my money.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 28, 2020 12:01:09 GMT
I'm pretty sure there won't be a wealth tax, but all bets are off on others. I also expect inflation, but not until this is well over. People staying indoors don't spend much - ask the over 75s.
The chancellor has already indicated a desire for parity in terms of NI for the self employed. My guess is that HMRC will eventually benefit rather well out of increased sight of what's going on with the self employed. I wouldn't be surprised to see it clawed back on an individual as well as a collective basis - and would be very wary of claiming the King's Shilling if you don't need to as a result.
There will be a window of opportunity where the Govt can almost bring in any tax increases/changes without much objection. Would be interesting if its sector specific to pay for the bailouts eg airlines.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 25, 2020 12:51:59 GMT
would major road works and pot holes be classed as essential work .a 12 week blitz while everything is so quite now would save a hell of lot of traffic disruption for when this is all over and we head for the sea side. I suspect it would be impossible to maintain social distancing given it usually involves 6 people standing around watching someone else do the digging.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 25, 2020 12:48:31 GMT
Never underestimate the ability of a civil servant to drag their feet - especially when it comes to handing out cash.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 25, 2020 6:24:44 GMT
I agree. Unless you are really attached (forcibly or otherwise) to the underlying philosophy the risk/reward has shifted substantially. There won't be a single individual or business untouched by this - and given how close to the edge many of them live, there will be financial casualties.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 25, 2020 6:12:24 GMT
I missed that as I sold all of that one a week or so ago. I'm still in the sister loan. Hate to be the negative nelly, but I can't see the business recovering from this. It's not been doing well since it tried to expand its operations to further sites and been firmly in zombie mode for much of the last year. They might have overcome the technology, cash flow, supply and weather related problems, but they've invoked the ire of Ofgem who are now out to get them I reckon. Frankly, the updates now sound desperate.
Shame as there's likely a decent little business in here somewhere, but clearly rather less proven and more speculative than I think we were led to believe.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 24, 2020 1:48:50 GMT
It's been like watching a slow motion car crash, hasn't it? Pretty much written that one off now as they'll likely use the coronavirus as the final death blow for this and its sister loan. Painful, but the gains from others will cover it. A good lesson well learned.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 23, 2020 16:01:36 GMT
They were talking about this on the radio this morning, and the suggestion was that it is a generational thing. Young people appear far less likely to take notice of recomended protocols than there older neighbours.
It would be a shame if we were all confined to barracks because a small percentage of society couldn't act responsibily.
I'd say the opposite, tbh. My 81yo mother is not taking this even remotely seriously. Fortunately, she's in good health, so she stands a good chance of withstanding it when(/if?) she catches it. If and when it does come to lockdown, though, I can't see how it'll be even remotely enforceable. We're rural - very rural. Our village is <350 people, spread over about 25km2. We're a 60km round trip to the nearest city - and that's not much over 50k people. Our two nearest towns are each about a 15km round trip - one each side of the English/Welsh border - and are each about 1,500 people. Policing the English side, where we are, only has three police dedicated to it, two of whom are Police Community Support Officers. The town on the Welsh side is very similar - but all three are PCSO. The small supermarket for that Welsh town is on the English side of the border to town itself. Short of bringing serious quantities of army in (and, again, they're going to be prioritising urban areas), I can't see there'd be any practical difference. Now stir that in with the weekend reports of loads of people going out to the countryside - and especially the Highland reports of loads of campers turning up with the intention of isolating... Meanwhile, I've been tracking the Worldometer numbers of deaths - and the UK is an almost exact map to Italy, but 15 days behind. However, remember than most of the Italian deaths (3,100 of the 4,800 as of yesterday) are in one region, Lombardy. That's amongst a 10m population, so 1 person in 3,000 have already died in just that one region - and that region is the industrial and financial heartland. The UK appears to be more evenly spread around, so far, although I've not found any regional tally. I'm in a similarly rural area of Wales. Any lockdown will unenforceable (even less police covering a larger nearby area) and actually pointless - I regularly go out for a 10k run and see no-one. We are already having problems with second home/motorhome owners turning up to self-isolate. Apparently, they are hassling GPs for help with their meds/illnesses. Meanwhile, the local county hospital has about the same number of critical beds as can be counted on a pair of hands. Pretty much resigned to dying if I get it bad. My local pharmacy is only allowing a couple of people in the shop at once.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 21, 2020 3:48:03 GMT
[/philosophy mode on] I find it staggering that with all the fantastic medical, technological and scientific advances of the past 100 years, here we are being forced to step back a whole century, effectively to the era of Spanish Flu, and find ourselves just as powerless to beat this Covid-19 as they were back then to beat their nemesis. Truly staggering when you think about it. We can split the atom, tunnel under the sea, fly to the moon, transplant bodily organs, converse face-to-face with people on the other side of the world, but along comes a soppy little ball of molecules and we're screwed! You have to take your hat off to Mother Nature. She really has cut us down to size. She's found a way to repair her planet by reducing emissions in every way conceivable. I'm no bearded, lentil munching, sandal wearing hippie, but it's undeniable that the planet is today much greener than it was three months ago. Nor am I a biologist, but isn't this exactly how nature operates? Culling ruthlessly if necessary to promote the optimal survival of life? Mankind will continue to thrive, but nature will certainly give it pause for thought this time. And all because somebody supposedly did something "strange" in a small food market in China? That's the most remarkable and intriguing part of it all. Wish I understood that a bit better. [/philosophy off] Your first point is the result of a lack of investment in the inevitable pandemic. Most humans, even those in leadership, don't seem to be able to think about big bad things on more than a 2 week horizon. For all of the talk about declaring a climate emergency here and there, here's what a response to an actual emergency looks like. Denial and inaction until it's shoved in your face. We even had notice on this one. When I was pulling out of P2P and stocking up on a fortnight's worth of food a few weeks ago, I was looking around and thinking "Am I blooming mad?" My missus certainly thought so. She doesn't anymore. Your second point is essentially the Gaia hypothesis. A bad name for an interesting idea - the planet is capable of self-regulating. This is clearly the case, but whether this pandemic counts I'll leave up to others more qualified. Personally, I doubt it. Also, it does not do so in a conscious way. Lastly, complexity and fragility, eh? What a bad combination.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 18, 2020 17:05:39 GMT
That's a great piece of analysis, jhamster. If you're mostly indoors (and potentially no income) there is almost nothing you can or want to buy. I already know families in which every wage earner is now basically redundant - and they have no chance of a getting another job in their sector (because it's been mothballed) or another (because no-one's hiring). The old conservative ideology of the unemployed being lazy wastrels who should just get on their bike won't wash.
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