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Post by charliebrown on May 4, 2017 13:45:05 GMT
Oddly, the DFL004 is back on SM again, now 114K is available. The clearance sale may have encouraged others to sell who were holding back given the likelihood of interest loss in the old queue. On a similar note, what is the rationale behind stopping interest accruals whilst loan parts are up for sale? With the SM being luke warm, loan parts can linger for days/ weeks (some of mine have). The borrower is still paying interest and the lender still has his/ her money tied up so apart from pressing the "sell" button the position for both borrower and seller remains the same. Is this a (not so) sneaky revenue stream for Lendy. Is Lendy using these funds to top up the PF or is it merely being set aside to fund the Christmas party. if I'm not wrong, other platforms pay interest up until the loan part is sold. Am I right?
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Post by charliebrown on May 3, 2017 13:51:57 GMT
My personal opinion is that I'm cautious when investing on Lendy. For example, I might be misguided but I've often invested blindly on MT as I sort of think if it's good enough for MT it's good enough for me. With Lendy I never think like that Well Lendy/SS did go through a similar 'can't put a foot wrong' stage when it was small, young and not mature enough to have to deal with defaults. At that point people trusted its judgment. When MT has to deal with failures, euphoria will subside and 20/20 hindsight criticism will kick in (I believe a lot of criticism of SS is not because they are doing anything differently rather that during the euphoria stage they were not forensically scutinised). I think loud disapproval on this forum does not necessarily mean a platform is bad/changed for the worse, conversely i don' think darling-status on this forum necessarily means a platform is safe. Darling status is actually far more dangerous as things slip through unobserved and/or unchallenged. Jack P I get the feeling that most of the key contributors on these pages are very pro-Lendy. The views expressed are generally balanced and factual. The disapprovals come constructively and are generally aimed at Lendy's seemingly loose DD. Read back over some of the excellent DD done by members on these pages where gaping holes were identified in Lendy's DD and some loans were jokingly labelled "barge pole". Sure enough, a lot of these "barge pole" loans have ultimately hit trouble. My Favourite was the debate where someone had said (words to the effect) that not only should a certain borrower be rejected for a loan he should probably be thrown in jail. I sit laughing at the wit and sense of humour of some members, priceless
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Post by charliebrown on May 2, 2017 15:09:02 GMT
I think the respected members on this forum have always been consistent in their views on this in that investing with your eyes closed and expecting that you can offload anything on the SM within term (or even with a negative term) is not a strategy you can ALWAYS rely on. We've seen the SM dynamics change over the last few months and some of the sales queues are longer and slower (or as dead as a dodo). What those members said as far as I can remember is simply that this is not a strategy they would personally be comfortable with. What's the disclaimer they use in the ads? Past performance may not be indicative of future performance? On a related note, I'm quite concerned about the volume of loans now parked under the "default" tab, and there's a few more imminently heading there too. Luckily I'm not holding any of them so haven't analysed the chance of a positive outcome, but the skeptic in me says there's a major sh*t storm brewing. I don't think Lendl can always be a martyr, I'd imagine investors are going to have to suck up some losses. I am already invested, so I am not making the decision as to whether to invest. I am not happy to hold any Lendy loan to term, I am not able to re-invest in other 12% loans in large enough volume, whether to term or for a short period, therefore I will exit when I still feel I can and go elsewhere I think the point is that whilst you're unhappy holding loans to term you might not have a choice. I'd agree that an option to sell at a discount would add some flexibility. My personal opinion is that I'm cautious when investing on Lendy. For example, I might be misguided but I've often invested blindly on MT as I sort of think if it's good enough for MT it's good enough for me. With Lendy I never think like that I think caveat emptor.
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Post by charliebrown on May 2, 2017 14:44:35 GMT
Why would they want to invest in a defaulted loan, as by then most would already most likely have what they wanted in the loan anyway. I am willing to hold to the end, why? I have spent a bit a time on google checked the basic facts, checked the borrower and done the sums and I am happy that they actually add up or if the project fails it be worth someone else taking it over. Lendy have a few very good loans the only problem is they are in the minority not the majortity. Fair enough - I am taking the stance that its too risky to take the chance with ANY of Lendy's loans and will be selling when I feel the SM opportunity is coming to an end - Lendy has risen in risk for me, above that of FS, in that there is not even a way to exit with a discount to the capital I think the respected members on this forum have always been consistent in their views on this in that investing with your eyes closed and expecting that you can offload anything on the SM within term (or even with a negative term) is not a strategy you can ALWAYS rely on. We've seen the SM dynamics change over the last few months and some of the sales queues are longer and slower (or as dead as a dodo). What those members said as far as I can remember is simply that this is not a strategy they would personally be comfortable with. What's the disclaimer they use in the ads? Past performance may not be indicative of future performance? On a related note, I'm quite concerned about the volume of loans now parked under the "default" tab, and there's a few more imminently heading there too. Luckily I'm not holding any of them so haven't analysed the chance of a positive outcome, but the skeptic in me says there's a major sh*t storm brewing. I don't think Lendl can always be a martyr, I'd imagine investors are going to have to suck up some losses.
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Post by charliebrown on Mar 20, 2017 14:21:05 GMT
I'm a believer in diversification rather than due diligence, as I suspect its hard to get a true position at one remove, and I'm no property developer. So 50 loans, with ideally no more than 2.5% of my SS investment in each. Im no financial advisor, just giveIng my 2p worth. Saving Stream is a different animal. I'm not sure the "maximum diversification" strategy is a good strategy. At the time of writing this there are 11 defaulted loans (yes, 11) and there are at least 2 or 3 more close to default and by the looks of it many more heading for trouble. A fully diversified investor would have money in these loans and frankly would probably be looking at capital loses far exceeding any interest gain. i am not fully diversified and I don't have money in any of these toxic loans. Instead, what I have done is choose which loans I like and put large % amounts into them. I then pray every night and watch this forum like a hawk, the first smell of trouble and I hit the eject button. The liquid SM has allowed me to offload loans without too much trouble. SS has become a game of musical chairs, or you might say Russian roulette. I Guess the question is, with the defaults tab rapidly growing there's a high chance that we are going to start to see capital loses. Is the risk outweighing the rewards? I haven't been tracking the numbers but from memory we've seen a lot more defaults than repayments in my recent memory.
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Post by charliebrown on Feb 16, 2017 11:53:03 GMT
The storage facility seems deeply unpopular at the moment. Never did like that one. Why is this loan so unpopular? Per the valuation there's almost 3 million quid of "headroom" should we need to force a sale. I'm getting a bit nervous because I've got quite a bit of cash tied up in this. I haven't as yet attempted to dump it. With policy changes, rate reductions, less liquid SM, lots of loans that have effectively defaulted and a poor quality pipeline are we seeing the SS bubble burst? Were the "good old days" actually too good to be true and what we are seeing is a reality check. i think this may eventually put off less savvy investors and make SS a hangout for only the investors who are able to perform extensive DD. A bunch of defaults - which looks like it's coming - might have the masses running for safety somewhere else? Assuming they can get their money out.
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Post by charliebrown on Feb 3, 2017 15:14:51 GMT
Some sense of proportion should be maintained.
[As at 14:08, Feb 3rd]
Of the £165M loan book, currently £310k (less than 0.2%) is for sale on the SM (and all 28 available loans are short term with 27 days or less to run). Globally, that's hardly cause for concern; the SM is still very liquid, with total drought of anything with a useful remaining term.
Locally: PBL084 has £89k for sale out of £5M. This is less than 2% but it is taking a while to move although it has come down from over £110k since this morning. PBL073 has £123k for sale out of £4.6M. This is 2.7% and again is not moving fast.
Personally I have never been interested in PBL073. I did hold a little of PBL084 when building my position but I never wanted to keep it and sold it some time ago. It is not surprising that these are moving slowly. These are two that are regularly available when the SM is not completely dry so clearly they are not popular. I would employ the oft quoted barge pole for these, especially now that they have nearly reached term.
However, I imagine that the current availability in these loans will disappear in time as new investors and/or money comes on board; they are still positive and both are 12%. There have been no recent updates from SS (as usual) nor in the forum which would deter new investors who have normally picked these two up. I'm a bit worried about these 2 loans also after a large amount was dumped on SM. As someone mentioned, the immediate reaction is to think that someone knows something and to follow suit and dump your own holdings - this could cause mass panic, a bit like a run on the bank. To the guy who said he's a high 6-figure investor (I assume that means almost 1 million quid on the platform), how do you sleep at night hehehehe If I had 1 million quid on the platform and got updates like "no change" and "refinance imminent", I'd be having a nervous breakdown. A cool 120k per year in interest must be nice though...... he who dares wins, Rodney!
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Post by charliebrown on Jan 10, 2017 16:46:20 GMT
None of this gives me any comfort. Respect to all the guys doing the DD and Detective work! Ive just dropped my prefunding to zero on both loans. I'm out, as they say on Dragons Den. No decent loans coming through on SS recently
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Post by charliebrown on Jan 6, 2017 18:58:21 GMT
I'll tell you where you could stick this. Have a metre wide copy made - have it "printed" on canvas and mounted, say a limited edition of 100. Give it the title "BM making waves" or "W2W". Get a valuation of £5000 from some dippy art nerd "expert". Place for £4000 each (or sensible offers) in posh London/Paris/New York/Peckham galleries. Then do the same with the image upside down. Send me half the proceeds! (OK, 25% will do!) Actually - thanks for the comprehensive review. I'll stick around a bit longer. No, no, take your valuation along to your friendly p2p platform and lend 70% against it Keep up the good work BM, I intend to invest very soon.
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Post by charliebrown on Jan 6, 2017 12:13:29 GMT
NO valuation gives a guarantee of value. Agree. Show me a valuation that gives a guarantee and I'm in for everything I've got
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Post by charliebrown on Jan 4, 2017 19:32:00 GMT
... but, should we expect that we will lose capital? It's the "enthusiastic valuations" comment that worries me most. If you rely on SS to do all the work you could well lose capital. Do your own DD and you 'should' drastically reduce that possibility Great advice. Part of my DD is to read what others are saying on this forum. Other than that I always read the valuation report and Google the borrower's "profile". Having limited experience in the property market I don't really know what else to do, especially to protect against inaccurate valuations. I was kind of hoping a professional valuation could get within + or - 30% accuracy but we seem to be saying don't bank on that being the case.
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Post by charliebrown on Jan 4, 2017 18:00:47 GMT
Looking at recent loan news, I find it rather disturbing that SS are referring quite frequently to 'receivers' and 'focussing the mind of borrowers' - care villages appear shaky, the old convent in Gloucs appears very shaky, waukers farm glasgow - a lot of references to possible defaults. These are popping up more and more frequently. Does this indicate that SS have been accepting enthusiastic valuations and doshing out money for properties that have little chance of successful development at the sort of figures that are being enthusiastically touted? I have spare cash at the moment and not so keen to plug it back into new loans if there is evidence of a gung-ho attitude within SS to take on properties with little chance of successful development.. If all of these default, the receivers are going to be making a lot of money, and we the investors losing a lot.. At 12% interest rates we should expect a substantial proportion of loans to run into problems. ... but, should we expect that we will lose capital? It's the "enthusiastic valuations" comment that worries me most.
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Post by charliebrown on Jan 4, 2017 16:05:01 GMT
Took me a while to get that joke Are there BOTs being used? Even with the store fronts, sushi, street signs and fireworks I've noticed that sometimes I'm not challenged with a sushi puzzle. I can't work out the pattern, but just sometimes it doesn't ask me and allows me to invest without it. I think it's common of all the popular p2p sites. I saw an interview on YouTube with one of the RS guys who said he wouldn't and doesn't spend a penny of marketing funds on lenders (I think it was RS, from memory) as there's no need to. Theres an awful lot of competition to get your money invested in good loans on SS, but you'll sure be glad it's that way if you need to cash out for whatever reason.
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Post by charliebrown on Jan 2, 2017 19:55:51 GMT
What's the verdict on these loans? Worth a punt or not? i can't seem to find a solid loan to invest in. I might have to do a George Best and spend it on "booze, birds and fast cars" instead Barge pole? Or not? You're not looking very hard! Ablrate always has decent stuff. I haven't yet signed up with Ablrate. Thanks for the tip. I have recently started to invest in FS, even managed to get bonuses and cash back. Sorry for the lighthearted nature of my post, I am interested to hear who believes the caravans are a decent loan. I've certainly read the rest of this thread and there's clearly some information that points to these loans being less attractive than they look at face value.
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Post by charliebrown on Jan 2, 2017 19:02:26 GMT
What's the verdict on these loans? Worth a punt or not? i can't seem to find a solid loan to invest in. I might have to do a George Best and spend it on "booze, birds and fast cars" instead Barge pole? Or not?
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