fogey
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Post by fogey on Oct 27, 2017 4:19:55 GMT
As a relative newcomer to p2p I don't believe I am qualified to make any significant inputs to the DD exercises at the moment: I am trying to learn from others in this regard. My name here gives some clue regarding my age and I am now probably at the stage in life where it is very difficult for me to learn such skills in any depth. At the moment it seems to me that DD plays a very important role in assessing the initial risk elements but the current operation of the SM appears to be governed far more by sentiment than any logical process.
The increasing number of defaults culminating in the suspension of the market to allow the Prestbury loan to be reconfigured appears to have instilled a heightened sense of fear regarding any new external stimuli, whether real or imagined. Any new updates are examined in minute detail to determine how they might indicate the satisfactory progress or otherwise of a loan. This applies to forum posts too and I suspect if these are not easily understood then the default response becomes the predominant negativity that pervades most of the market at the moment. This is probably why the post around the Gazette article has triggered yet another panic response, especially as MT have made no comment around it so far. When there is no response it is now automatically assumed to be for a further negative reason.
When I first encountered MT many months ago I was immediately amazed by the intense euphoria and remarked on it in my early posts. But no one on this forum seemed to notice it in the same way as I did. It just seemed quite normal to people here, so that everything revolved around a profound sense of optimism. As time passed the sentiment has almost completely reversed so that the SM operates in a completely different way and it is this aspect that really intrigues me at the moment. In particular, what triggers the onset of the frequent panic attacks that now dominate the market and cause problems for all investors. The concept of "sheepies" is probably far too simplistic and just provides an excuse to ignore the problem, hoping that it will just eventually go away. However at the moment the problem is certainly intensifying and hope is in very short supply indeed.
With regard to the Liverpool loan I suspect most investors have a relatively high exposure, whilst there was very little available on the SM it was not considered to present a significant risk: investors felt free to sell their excess holdings at any time that suited them. But the recent abrupt change in SM sentiment has suddenly caused investors to try to significantly reduce their positions. When many try to do so at the same time, the SM is unable to handle the situation. This heightens tensions even further so that long sales queues start to form thus creating the current problematic situation. Of course this then opens up the debate around premiums and discounts as a possible solution, but at the moment there seems to be no obvious solution but to wait and hope everything sorts itself out.
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Oct 27, 2017 1:30:51 GMT
A friend visited the property yesterday and confirmed the administrator was on site and also security. Presumably the hotel/restaurant is/was still operating, from what your friend could tell? So there is actually something tangible in this astounding surreal saga !
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Oct 27, 2017 0:52:46 GMT
Oher 5% bought today now number 2 on the leader board. That's all history now ! Today there is now a brand new Panic of the Day Back to number 1 ... 9.53% latest availability ...
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Oct 27, 2017 0:19:05 GMT
Paranoia rules ok !
Paranoia is an instinct or thought process believed to be heavily influenced by anxiety or fear, often to the point of delusion and irrationality ...
Of course these extreme mood swings could also be a sign of Bipolar Disorder ... and as there are so many people involved there may be an element of Mass Hysteria ...
Mass hysteria is a condition affecting a group of persons, characterized by excitement or anxiety, irrational behaviour or beliefs, or inexplicable symptoms ...
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Oct 26, 2017 10:37:36 GMT
With a recent 50k investment combined with around 25k being taken away from the queue with no corresponding investment the time for getting back into this loan has shortened considerably ...
Edit: another 18 k investment and further evidence of queue evaporation not long now !
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Oct 26, 2017 0:31:15 GMT
The common 13% risk factor was known before the market suspension of course, as was the knowledge that Prestbury would default, although some chose to ignore the obvious and live in some sort of dream world. So I am not sure that common risk factor had any effect on the eventual outcome. The holiday park was not subject any intense selling pressure going into the market suspension so it was not comparable in this regard. I am sure that many investors had a high exposure level and therefore sought to reduce it, perhaps all tried to do so within the same narrow time frame. This may still be the case and may explain the current situation. But the high exposure came from a very successful launch and a high confidence in the loan, so perhaps the current situation should be seen as a sign of strength rather than weakness.
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Oct 25, 2017 22:18:02 GMT
There is a strange feeling of deja vu here. I hope we are not going to be subjected to yet another panic attack, it certainly looks as if the baby is now awake and responding just as it did before ... Of course it is now even more susceptible to bad noises that keep it from sleeping ... just as you might expect ...
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Oct 25, 2017 21:46:49 GMT
Indeed the first selling appeared very shortly after the true Prestbury situation was deduced here, before any formal statement from MT. Initially for 10k and then subsequent amounts of 20k and 46k. All of these were eventually completely absorbed by the SM. However on the following day there was a more concerted selling attempt, just as the market was being suspended, taking the selling well over 50k. Events therefore conspired against any natural buying response with the perhaps predictable consequences that we are still seeing today ... This unfortunate timing was just a coincidence of course ...
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Oct 25, 2017 14:43:25 GMT
There is a lot of new money going into liverpuddles today (21k very recently), but as soon as it does more people put sale orders in, so that the SM availability figure never changes that much. I recently noticed that potential future buyers are buying poundland markers, so they can track how much new investment is really taking place and how much the new queuing sales orders are hiding this. This is easily seen in their personal sales queuing data within their sales listings. This is very important for at some critical level the queuing money will quickly evaporate and then they will have lost the opportunity to buy in. Just before this critical point there will be another panic to buy in and then they will have left it too late of course. No one really knows when this will happen but the tracking markers give a very good guide to the rate of new investment and a sensible prediction for this critical point.
Edit: I have just seen the availability drop by 15k for £3 of sales.
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Oct 24, 2017 18:08:33 GMT
The abysmal timing and lengthy duration of the market suspension has unfortunately induced an acute level of paralysis which will now take some time to resolve ...
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Oct 24, 2017 16:49:41 GMT
Will the SM be open again soon ? I wouldn't put too much faith in what it seems to be saying right now
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fogey
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Post by fogey on Oct 24, 2017 16:34:00 GMT
What does market suspended during rollover mean? Well it looks as if all the sell/buy orders have just stacked up as they have not been actioned so all the data is truly bananas right now !!
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fogey
Posts: 171
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Post by fogey on Oct 24, 2017 16:14:16 GMT
I really like the Liverpool loan & noticed it's now at £50k on SM. MH is selling fast after today's update....you couldn't give it away yesterday! Still increasing! Is this a new panic of the day? I'm confused Yes indeed ...... the market suspension has worked miracles here ... Here at the top of the availabilities is the latest Panic of the Day !!!
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fogey
Posts: 171
Likes: 104
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Post by fogey on Oct 24, 2017 15:55:02 GMT
Extreme Bipolar Disorder rules ok !
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fogey
Posts: 171
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Post by fogey on Oct 24, 2017 15:01:44 GMT
May just be someone clearing out their overinvestment ... (started doing this yesterday) this loan was very popular at launch, rather like Lancs Park but then some peeps couldn't wait at all to get shut of it and that took ages to clear !
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