|
Post by coolrunning on Dec 19, 2014 21:50:24 GMT
How about clear links to parts 1,2 and 3?
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Dec 19, 2014 21:48:37 GMT
The old Investment Portfolios still work and has country selectors, but are very limited. I have paused most of mine.
And they will be gradually pushed out of use.
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Nov 25, 2014 13:34:33 GMT
Hi there! My first deposit (42% of total initial investment) was in March 2013, second in June (21%), third in August (21%) and the last on in October (16%). Weight average date of my first "deposit" is June 2013, if I can count in such a way. My own XIRR shows about 14.68% return (assumptions: 100% x current+cash, 90% x overdue, 25% x 60 d.+ overdue), while Bondora calculates return at 28.98%. The key reason for such a difference between my own XIRR and Bondora's should be related to my chosen strategy to purchase few days overdue loans from secondary market at discount. Some purchases turn into great profit after it turns green and is sold at 5-9% premium, but some get behind the track and turns red. I invest only in Estonia loans and thus if recovery rate sustains, I might get my XIRR closer to Bondora's in a year's time. I am ranked 22nd in those who have invested at least 10k for 12 m, 269th position in overall for 12 m. James, what assumptions do you use for your XIRR calculations? It looks like we are not in the same league as the others. I also started in March, but 2014. My own XIRR shows about 13% return (assumptions: 100% x current+cash, 100% x overdue, 0% x 60 d.+ overdue), while Bondora calculates return at 17%. Nevertheless, I regard myself as a successful investor.
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Nov 11, 2014 20:35:46 GMT
Could I ask you guys what assumptions you make re bad debt in coming to your XIRRs? I assume total loss on 50% of the '60+ days overdue' number. I assume 100% loss for those which reach that state, actual loss for ones that I sell before they get there. Hi James As I understand it, you should not take "actual loss for ones that I sell before they get there" into account for XIRR. This is a loss that already appears in the valuation of your portfolio.
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Nov 10, 2014 16:24:41 GMT
Added to that, my bank (HBOS) charge me £9.95 for a currency transfer each time I put money into my Bondora account. How do you do the currency transfer? Do you use the FX rates that the bank provides? I'd imagine the bank charges a pretty high bid-offer spread. Make sure that the spread you're charged isn't too large - compare the rate you got at the time of transfer against the interbank rate from some currency site. Also, I can't see how bondora could match your funds to your account. I was told by them to only use transferwise.com Since I work/live with Euros, I do not have this problem. But I use transferwise for all currency changing payments, and have done so for a couple of years. (e.g. Euros to sterling) For sterling investors, I would recommend transferwise.
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Nov 4, 2014 15:38:57 GMT
Until I see any recovery of my own defaulted loans I certainly assume 100% loss for those, as many of the less overdue ones will likely default soon anyway. I made a lot of 10€ loans to the Bondora+ borrowers and now wish I had not done so as there are too many of them to watch and manage, so my default rates have soared since they started in April. My 60+ overdue totals at month end are as follows: April 524 May 572 Jun 666 Jul 776 Aug 949 Sep 1260 Oct 1761 For 2 months now I have only reinvested repayments instead of adding more money and then only in the safest loans. I am hoping that this will lower the increase in the level of defaults so that it again is less than my interest payments. The Bondora return figure is still about 22% which seems less and less likely each month now. Everything depends on the recovery success for the defaulted loans, which seems to have been excellent in the past in Estonia. Wow, this is very scary.
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Nov 4, 2014 15:37:02 GMT
Could I ask you guys what assumptions you make re bad debt in coming to your XIRRs? I assume total loss on 50% of the '60+ days overdue' number. I assume 100% loss of the '60+ days overdue' number. But I allow all the overdues. Makes the calculation simple.
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Nov 2, 2014 17:06:38 GMT
FWIW I started in late 2012 and my XIRRs are 17.2 in Euros and 13.3% in Pounds. Bondora's for me is 26%. Mine are lower because of lots of uninvested money at various times, notably most of the first year and for the last few months. My Euro return is a bit better than some VCTs, the Pound return is worse. I'm planning to put something like my total current amount invested at Bondora into VCTs this year. I wish I started when you did. I started in March 2014 and my XIRR is 11.55 in Euros. Bondora's return for me is 15.5%. Sounds bad does it not? Not really. I dump anything that looks poor, even if I have to take a big loss. I prefer to take my hits early and reinvest the sales in new loans that will hopefully perform better. Also, I have invested heavily in the last 2 months, so a lot of loans before their first pay day. So I am reasonably confident that in a years time I can be up near your figures. Time will tell.
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Oct 23, 2014 9:26:14 GMT
Useful post. I shall have to install SQLite myselt.
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Oct 22, 2014 16:44:40 GMT
Without doing anything hard, like what you were doing with sqllite, I just simply added up all the EAD1s in all the 20000 loans. I got a figure a magnitude lower than your totals of selected EAD1 values. Can you give me the simple EAD1 total from your database for comparison? sure - 2262451.6946 EUR, which is exactly same as what I see as sum when I select Column EN - EAD1 in the LoanData.xlsx Please don't tell me that I have somehow corrupted original dataset. What number you get when you do the sum? Whoops. You are right. I redid the calc and get your answer this time. Apologies for doubting you.
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Oct 21, 2014 16:25:24 GMT
Without doing anything hard, like what you were doing with sqllite, I just simply added up all the EAD1s in all the 20000 loans.
I got a figure a magnitude lower than your totals of selected EAD1 values.
Can you give me the simple EAD1 total from your database for comparison?
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Oct 20, 2014 13:08:44 GMT
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Jul 28, 2014 19:56:18 GMT
... I haven't done the sums, but am left with the impression that the secondary market is over-priced, and by extension that one should systematically sell any loan that can be sold at a 5% premium. This would of course be contingent on being able to pick up enough new loans to remain fully invested. Flipping at 5% for B+ was being done quite successfully until recently, but now there are plenty on the primary market. Check out WiseClerk's own site, he has a nice report. Now I suspect little is sold on the secondary market above 2-3 %. Certainly I would never go higher.
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Jul 4, 2014 19:06:41 GMT
I have not had any trouble today.
Except for finding quality loans...
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Jun 21, 2014 21:43:42 GMT
What I have no clear idea about yet (and don't expect anybody else to either) is if the 'telephone' verification loan is a worse payer than a 'document' loan so I have taken a mixture of these and logged this on my spreadsheets. " is if the 'telephone' verification loan is a worse payer than a 'document' loan" - I expect so and have avoided them. For the 'document' loans I have quite a few but it is really to early to say. I am quite worried about the ES ones.
|
|