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Post by robberbaron on Oct 11, 2015 8:53:24 GMT
You could model the market risk and correlation through the formula in this link: goddardconsulting.ca/option-pricing-monte-carlo-basket.html. Here x i could represent the uncorrelated evolution of the price (i.e. return) of the property i drawn from a normal distribution. ε i would be the correlated evolution of the price for property i. If the property price (i.e. ε i * P(0)) falls below a certain level (e.g. the initial price or some other level) then the associated loan is in default and the loss is max(loan amount - ε i - PF, 0). You could assume the PF replenishes at a certain rate between each period. Adding correlation would mean that the risk of large losses would be higher than if risk of default of the loans were independent. The VBA code for the Cholesky factorization can be easily found online.
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Post by robberbaron on Sept 18, 2015 17:06:10 GMT
What exactly do you suggest? I would use the standard joint probability of default of 2 loans A and B: P(AB)=P(A)*P(B)*corr(AB)*sqrt(P(A)*(1-P(A))*P(B)(1-P(B)))
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Post by robberbaron on Sept 18, 2015 16:47:52 GMT
Can we factor in on average every loan pays 6 months interest, and that is deducted off any loss? Yes I suppose we could, although it might muddy the waters. Let's stick to capital losses for the time being. Besides, in a "perfect storm" they could all go down like ninepins! That's why you should probably introduce some correlation in your model. Assuming all loan default probabilities are independent is just too unrealistic. You could assume for simplicity sake the same correlation for all loans.
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Post by robberbaron on Sept 17, 2015 17:42:23 GMT
_I use the attached spreadsheet which is based on the "Transactions" Excel Export. I find it quite useful to reconcile deposits, withdrawals and balance because Saving Stream occasionally get things wrong! To use the spreadsheet you just have to go to the Transactions page on the SS website and click on Export to Excel. Once opened copy paste the content into the "Transactions" tab of my spreadsheet, go back to the "Summary" tab and voilà! N.B. I only tested it with OpenOffice
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Post by robberbaron on Feb 26, 2015 12:03:09 GMT
I have a £300 part for sale showing as 33% sold yet the £200 remaining are not showing as available on the loan page. Therefore nobody can buy the part. I find these types of glitches fairly frequently and they are putting me off from investing more in SS. Could SS give us a technical explanation of why these issues occur what is being done to fix them permanently?
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Post by robberbaron on Sept 1, 2014 17:27:52 GMT
With all that property experience its just a bit surprising then, that they went for the boatie business first! Or was this boat gambit just a sprat to catch a mackerel? The boats being the sprat and us the mackerel, perhaps? SS has said before that the boaty lending business is seasonal. It makes sense that owners are more likely to borrow against their boats in winter when they cannot use them than during the summer. So if SS hadn't gone into the real estate business this summer we would all be complaining about the lack of available loans.
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Post by robberbaron on Aug 14, 2014 15:41:00 GMT
To go back to the subject of the topic, SS needs to address thoses security concerns. Unclear security safeguards is the main reason why I, and probably many others, don't put more money in this.
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Post by robberbaron on Aug 14, 2014 13:01:49 GMT
I have done this several times. You must first send an email asking to offset your Bacs deficit with your available funds. Once that's done you can send the difference.
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Post by robberbaron on Aug 14, 2014 9:29:41 GMT
The system could not reconcile this deposit as the Auto-Deposit value and the BACS transferred values were different. Could all investors please ensure the values of auto-deposits and follow up BACS transfers match in order to avoid reconciliation delays. We apologise for the delay in resolving this issue! May I (as the proud "inventor" of this process) suggest an automatic email is sent once an auto-deposit is made to remind us exactly how much we just promised to send) I think that's already the case. The email subject is "deposit confirmation" and it gives you all the details for the payment.
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Post by robberbaron on Aug 6, 2014 17:41:27 GMT
I see that there is no limitation for the destination of withdrawals. What if someone hacks into an account? Wouldn't it be safer to only allow withdrawals to the account where the funds originated or to a registered account that can only be changed with a code received via text message.
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Post by robberbaron on Aug 6, 2014 12:50:02 GMT
ramblin rose, I have read the FAQ and the Terms. The FAQ does not explicitely says that interest are paid at maturity. In the financial world the interests are usually paid according to a predefined frequency and not at maturity. Since boaty loans are following a non standard convention it should be put in the loan prospectus as a reminder. Although for such short term loans the compounding effect does not really matter.
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Post by robberbaron on Aug 6, 2014 9:27:54 GMT
I had some boaty loans so prepayment is not the issue. I contacted them yesterday but got no response. I hope I won't have to contact the FInancial Ombudsman about this. At the risk of teaching my grandmother to suck eggs - you aren't expecting monthly interest from the boaty loans are you? Only the PBLs pay monthly, and the boaty loans pay all the interest at the end. Again, aplogies if you already knew that. Just that you only mentioned the boats.............. Edit: crossed posts with veronica! Edit2: meant to add that I'd be really surprised if the Ombudsman were necessary - SS are usually really good at sorting out errors when they occur. Good catch! I wasn't aware PBL and boaty loans were treated differently interest wise
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Post by robberbaron on Aug 5, 2014 15:42:42 GMT
I had some boaty loans so prepayment is not the issue. I contacted them yesterday but got no response. I hope I won't have to contact the FInancial Ombudsman about this.
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Post by robberbaron on Aug 5, 2014 10:36:44 GMT
I have not received any interest payment besides PBL4. Anyone else having this issue?
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