Mike
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Post by Mike on Sept 20, 2017 23:31:31 GMT
As the London market gets mentioned I'd like to say: I pay ~700/mnth and can walk from my house across tower bridge past Liverpool Street and onto almost Old Street to my current office in under 40 mins.
My point: London is mixed. You don't pay for what you get - you pay for what people think they don't want
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Sept 21, 2017 8:15:21 GMT
...I hope that this doesn't happen, but it would be interesting to see how companies that have effectively used cheap debt to fund share buybacks deal with a fall in their share price. They can either sit on the loss, causing their share price to fall when it makes it onto the balance sheet or sell to go flat causing their share price to fall... That's not how it works. Shares bought back are effectively cancelled (see below*). Subsequent changes in the price have no P&L effect. There's an opportunity cost if the shares could have been bought more cheaply later, but no real loss. In exactly the same way, a company which issues shares may be considered to have suffered an opportunity cost if the share price goes up (because it could have issued the shares for more later), but you don't see that "cost" shown as a loss in the P&L. Nor do you see a profit in the P&L if the value of the issued shares goes down! * The following applies to UK companies. The rules on when and how shares may be bought back may differ in other countries but the accounting should be the same: - In the old days, all shares bought back were actually cancelled. There was a change in the law some years ago to allow shares to be bought into Treasury, which enables them to be reissued later. This gives companies more flexibility, but they are still treated as cancelled for accounting and tax purposes. Any reissue is treated for both accounting and tax as a new issue at the new price.
- Regardless of whether shares are cancelled when they are bought back, or bought into Treasury, the purchase must be paid for out of distributable profits, just like a dividend. This reduces the amount available for future dividends.
- The main advantage of buying into Treasury is that, when the shares are reissued, the proceeds of the new issue are credited back to distributable profits (up to the amount of the debit when they were bought back), which enables the distributable profits to be reinstated.
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pa
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Post by pa on Sept 21, 2017 11:41:05 GMT
With regards to the mechanism of a share buyback I completely agree with you and thank you for including.
I think that we are talking at slightly cross-purposes.
My argument is that you don't get something for nothing in markets.
I hope that we both agree that after a share buyback the market cap of the company is the same - there are just less shares in circulation.
A company is purchasing back (a portion of) its ownership of itself.
If it pays for this (directly or indirectly and noting that there may be good tax reasons for doing so this way) by debt, it still has to pay the debt back.
If the business is sound a correction in the share price might be a great buying opportunity. If it has not they have used leverage to overpay.
If I could gently play devil's advocate I don't see negative equity as an opportunity cost.
I would hope that everything goes well and people use debt as a tool responsibly. My concern is that people don't.
If they haven't then I would expect to see companies putting rights issues forward to raise funds (I would call this selling though I realise others would, more correctly, point out this is dilution).
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nick
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Post by nick on Oct 3, 2017 12:36:15 GMT
With regards to the mechanism of a share buyback I completely agree with you and thank you for including. I think that we are talking at slightly cross-purposes. My argument is that you don't get something for nothing in markets. I hope that we both agree that after a share buyback the market cap of the company is the same - there are just less shares in circulation. A company is purchasing back (a portion of) its ownership of itself. If it pays for this (directly or indirectly and noting that there may be good tax reasons for doing so this way) by debt, it still has to pay the debt back. If the business is sound a correction in the share price might be a great buying opportunity. If it has not they have used leverage to overpay. If I could gently play devil's advocate I don't see negative equity as an opportunity cost. I would hope that everything goes well and people use debt as a tool responsibly. My concern is that people don't. If they haven't then I would expect to see companies putting rights issues forward to raise funds (I would call this selling though I realise others would, more correctly, point out this is dilution). "I hope that we both agree that after a share buyback the market cap of the company is the same - there are just less shares in circulation." - I don't think this is correct. In a completely efficient market, when a company repurchases its own shares, it market capitalisation should fall by the amount paid for the shares. Share buybacks are effectively a means of distribution and often used by companies to supplement normal distributions via dividend. If the buyback is funded by a debt issue (or even just cash on the balance sheet), then the enterprise value of the company (ie market cap + debt - cash) will remain the same which is probably what you are referring to?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 3, 2017 13:19:25 GMT
I don't think this is correct. In a completely efficient market, when a company repurchases its own shares, it market capitalisation should fall by the amount paid for the shares. I'm not, by any means, an expert in equities, but this doesn't sound right to me. If you consider the outstanding share capital to be (one of) a company's liabilities when a company spends £x to reduce those liabilities by £x it's net value remains the same - it's just cancelling out a liability. Or looked at another way the value of a company ie its share price is reflected in the discounted sum of its future cashflows. Reduce the number of shares and earnings per share increase commensurately. It nets out. So the market cap should stay the same.
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nick
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Post by nick on Oct 3, 2017 14:46:36 GMT
I don't think this is correct. In a completely efficient market, when a company repurchases its own shares, it market capitalisation should fall by the amount paid for the shares. I'm not, by any means, an expert in equities, but this doesn't sound right to me. If you consider the outstanding share capital to be (one of) a company's liabilities when a company spends £x to reduce those liabilities by £x it's net value remains the same - it's just cancelling out a liability. Or looked at another way the value of a company ie its share price is reflected in the discounted sum of its future cashflows. Reduce the number of shares and earnings per share increase commensurately. It nets out. So the market cap should stay the same. The fundamental balance sheet equation is that assets less liabilities equals shareholders equity. In the past balance sheets were presented with assets and liabilities in the top half to give net assets equal to shareholder equity (share capital and reserves) in the bottom half. The more fashionable presentation of a balance sheet is to show assets in the top half equalling liabilities and shareholder equity/funds (ie share capital and reserves) in the bottom half. However, shareholder equity/funds should not be confused as a liability, it is merely a representation of the net asset value (assets less liabilities) ascribed to various classes of shareholders. I find it easier to view the traditional presentation of the balance sheet where the net assets are shown on the top half of balance sheet and equivalent shareholder equity/funds on the bottom half. When a share buyback is made, the reduction in cash will lead to its net assets falling (as will shareholder funds/equity in the bottom half of the balance sheet). If company is valued at book value, then the fall in net assets represents the fall in market capitalisation equal to the buyback. Perhaps the easier way to consider the effect of a share buyback on market capitalisation is thinking about what the shareholders have collectively before and after a buy back occurs. For example, say there are 100 shareholders each with one share in a company that has net assets of £100 (say all in cash). For simplicity assume the company is valued at book value, ie £100. Before the buy back, shareholder hold 100 shares with a total book and market value of £100. Now a buy back occurs whereby half the shares are bought back at par £1. After the buy back, the shareholders collectively have £50 in cash and 50 shares worth £1 each (net assets of £50/50 shares). The market value of the company has fallen from £100 to £50, equal to the cash paid out to repurchase the shares (shares are cancelled by the company on buyback). So whilst the value per share remains unchanged, the total value of shares and hence capitalisation has reduced by the amount paid by the company to repurchase the shares. If you are arguing that market capitalisation per share should remain unchanged then I agree, but the total capitalisation will fall represented by the transfer of cash/value from the company to individual shareholders.
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DiQ
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Post by DiQ on Oct 16, 2017 11:37:31 GMT
This post I'm afraid is one that gets my hackles rising about - I find many people are USA-centric / London centric when reporting news or other subject and appear to think if something is happening in any of those places it happens everywhere! I invest in properties in an area where its still fairly easy to get rental yields of 13-15% and sadly I can see prices rising - your 'correction' is actually going the other way, as folks sick of paying frankly silly London prices look elsewhere for value. A few auctions I've attended recently have seen a sharp rise in investors from outside the area, sadly with deeper pockets than local buyers, which is pushing prices up. London may well be due a 'correction' as the frankly ridiculous prices people pay for a frankly fairly undesirable area all told have never seen to have much of a link to reality or value. There have always been much better places to live, with much cheaper housing - I think people are finally cottoning on to this. Reports are often based around London because that's where the UK economy exists. Please look at this link. It's getting on a bit now but it's probably not far from the truth today. "10 London boroughs worth more than all the homes in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland". That's around 1/3 of London. "Westminster.... three times that of England’s sixth most populous city, Bristol". London also pays a third of all the tax in the UK. This is why it's reported on, because what happens there has a far greater impact than what happens anywhere else. I'm sure if prices in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland all dropped by a significant amount simultaneously that would make the news too but it'd still wouldn't have as much effect as the whole of London. Prices in London might seem very high from the outside but there's a lot of money in that town. The FOREX market alone has the equivalent of the entire world's annual GDP pass through it on average every 6 weeks. It's currently the financial center of the world and as such has the world as it's inhabitants. These people are rich, and not just the non doms but the huge number of British people with very high paying jobs who live there. Reports are often based around th US because that's where a significant proportion world's economy exists. Please look at this link. The gap is falling, mainly due to the rise of China, but even today the US is 1/4 of the world's economy. Not long ago it was 1/3 or more. This is why it's reported on, because what happens there has a far greater impact than what happens anywhere else, recently excluding China. Hence the old saying "When America sneezes the world catches a cold". What happens there has a knock on effect for the rest of the world. So reporting is US / London centric because those places by themselves makes the difference to the largest number of people. You may be getting 13-15% but that has no real effect on the rest of the economy and so isn't news worthy. I neither live in London nor the US.
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Post by yorkshireman on Oct 16, 2017 13:04:07 GMT
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