|
Post by dualinvestor on Nov 13, 2017 15:23:41 GMT
There are 93 live Lendy loans. Currently, 41 of these are either defaulted, overdue or suspended leaving 52 'okay'. In two weeks time another eight loans will have slipped from IOA into IA. So, without repayments, extensions etc., by November 27th there will be 44 'okay' loans and 49 not 'okay'. And we still have not a single (even partial) repayment on any Lendy DFL. Of the "okay" loan presumably around 25 of those will be DFLs?
|
|
withnell
Member of DD Central
Posts: 550
Likes: 491
|
Post by withnell on Nov 13, 2017 15:55:14 GMT
Surely there is a reasonable expectation that many of these loans will run overdue? Most repayment strategies involve a refinance or sale on the retail market, where delays can frequently occur, often out of the borrower's hands (solicitors/surveyors/banks).
Doesn't make the project any less creditworthy, and if the borrower could demonstrate definitive repayment within term they'd be applying to a bank for much cheaper term finance!
|
|
twoheads
Member of DD Central
Programming
Posts: 1,089
Likes: 1,192
|
Post by twoheads on Nov 13, 2017 17:10:32 GMT
MONEY pointed out via PM that my figures were incorrect - I had included the pipeline loan in my figures. I've corrected the figures in my post.
|
|
twoheads
Member of DD Central
Programming
Posts: 1,089
Likes: 1,192
|
Post by twoheads on Nov 13, 2017 20:05:13 GMT
There are 93 92 live Lendy loans. Currently, 41 of these are either defaulted, overdue or suspended leaving 52 51 'okay'. In two weeks time another eight loans will have slipped from IOA into IA. So, without repayments, extensions etc., by November 27th there will be 44 43 'okay' loans and 49 not 'okay'. And we still have not a single (even partial) repayment on any Lendy DFL. Of the "okay" loan presumably around 25 of those will be DFLs? Of the 30 DFLs: - 4 are overdue (001, 002, 006 and 010). Others would be too if not for several extensions.
- 4 are suspended (001, 002, 016 and 017). Note: 001 and 002 are both overdue and suspended.
So, I think 24 DFLs would be currently classed as 'okay' in the sense that they are IOA (positive term) and can be traded normally. For the suspensions, I'm using the list that mary posted in this thread on November 9th.
|
|
GeorgeT
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,322
Likes: 1,576
|
Post by GeorgeT on Nov 13, 2017 21:44:50 GMT
LY need to start performing on some of these loans in difficulty because it will only take 2 or 3 more suspensions or defaults and the platform will be up a certain waterway without a propelling tool.
Noting the above analysis that, of the total loanbook, 41 loans are either defaulted, overdue or suspended and 51 are OK, this is teetering on a cliff edge stuff. If things don't improve and it reaches the point where more loans are in trouble than performing then I would suggest there is a pretty big problem.
|
|
copacetic
Member of DD Central
Posts: 306
Likes: 667
|
Post by copacetic on Nov 13, 2017 23:52:46 GMT
LY need to start performing on some of these loans in difficulty because it will only take 2 or 3 more suspensions or defaults and the platform will be up a certain waterway without a propelling tool. On the contrary, Lendy earn their fees at the start of the loan when it fills. The only danger the platform faces is possibly being unable to earn more fees from filling new loans and development tranches if investor confidence is badly dented. I think us investors are a mercenary lot, most of us will invest if they think the can turn an acceptable profit. I know I'd happily keep investing in loans with genuinely low LTV, viable exit strategy and competitive rates if they were offered. If Lendy were to offer another loan like PBL143 I'd be increasing my holding again.
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,330
Likes: 11,549
|
Post by ilmoro on Nov 13, 2017 23:59:29 GMT
LY need to start performing on some of these loans in difficulty because it will only take 2 or 3 more suspensions or defaults and the platform will be up a certain waterway without a propelling tool. On the contrary, Lendy earn their fees at the start of the loan when it fills. The only danger the platform faces is possibly being unable to earn more fees from filling new loans and development tranches if investor confidence is badly dented. I think us investors are a mercenary lot, most of us will invest if they think the can turn an acceptable profit. I know I'd happily keep investing in loans with genuinely low LTV, viable exit strategy and competitive rates if they were offered. If Lendy were to offer another loan like PBL143 I'd be increasing my holding again. No they dont, they get 2% upfront, the rest is earnt monthly as their margin between borrrower rate & lender rate. Another 2% on exit.
|
|
copacetic
Member of DD Central
Posts: 306
Likes: 667
|
Post by copacetic on Nov 14, 2017 0:40:15 GMT
On the contrary, Lendy earn their fees at the start of the loan when it fills. The only danger the platform faces is possibly being unable to earn more fees from filling new loans and development tranches if investor confidence is badly dented. I think us investors are a mercenary lot, most of us will invest if they think the can turn an acceptable profit. I know I'd happily keep investing in loans with genuinely low LTV, viable exit strategy and competitive rates if they were offered. If Lendy were to offer another loan like PBL143 I'd be increasing my holding again. No they dont, they get 2% upfront, the rest is earnt monthly as their margin between borrrower rate & lender rate. Another 2% on exit. I was under the impression Lendy take the interest of a loan up front for the term of the loan under normal circumstances. e.g 12 month at 12% loan for £100k, borrower receives say 100k - 2k (origination fee) - 20k (investor + Lendy interest) = 78k. Lendy keep the 2k + 8k and put the remaining 12k is an account to pay us monthly interest. OK, for the purposes of tax Lendy probably accrue their portion of the interest so it is 'earned' monthly but they have the cash in their bank and they only have to give it back if the borrower repays early. They also earn possible late fees and exit fees but the majority of their earnings are at origination. I understood this from a video Lendy made expaining it at least a year ago though - is it wrong?
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,330
Likes: 11,549
|
Post by ilmoro on Nov 14, 2017 0:50:57 GMT
No they dont, they get 2% upfront, the rest is earnt monthly as their margin between borrrower rate & lender rate. Another 2% on exit. I was under the impression Lendy take the interest of a loan up front for the term of the loan under normal circumstances. e.g 12 month at 12% loan for £100k, borrower receives say 100k - 2k (origination fee) - 20k (investor + Lendy interest) = 78k. Lendy keep the 2k + 8k and put the remaining 12k is an account to pay us monthly interest. OK, for the purposes of tax Lendy probably accrue their portion of the interest so it is 'earned' monthly but they have the cash in their bank and they only have to give it back if the borrower repays early. They also earn possible late fees and exit fees but the majority of their earnings are at origination. I understood this from a video Lendy made expaining it at least a year ago though - is it wrong? Correct but my understanding is that the cash is in the borrowers client account not Lendy's as it isnt legally Lendy's until due. Im not sure FCA rules allow otherwise. However I might be wrong and the source of that impression will take some digging as it was from a while back IIRC.
|
|
copacetic
Member of DD Central
Posts: 306
Likes: 667
|
Post by copacetic on Nov 14, 2017 1:12:00 GMT
In practice even if the funds are held in a borrower client account that means it doesn't matter to Lendy's short term bottom line if the loan is suspended from the SM or in fact goes belly up. Lendy have their profit guaranteed provided the borrower doesn't repay early, which was the point I was trying to make. The platform is safe regardless of how many more loans they suspend (again in the short term, long term lack of originating new loans could casue it to struggle).
|
|
|
Post by dualinvestor on Nov 14, 2017 13:28:40 GMT
On the contrary, Lendy earn their fees at the start of the loan when it fills. The only danger the platform faces is possibly being unable to earn more fees from filling new loans and development tranches if investor confidence is badly dented. I think us investors are a mercenary lot, most of us will invest if they think the can turn an acceptable profit. I know I'd happily keep investing in loans with genuinely low LTV, viable exit strategy and competitive rates if they were offered. If Lendy were to offer another loan like PBL143 I'd be increasing my holding again. No they dont, they get 2% upfront, the rest is earnt monthly as their margin between borrrower rate & lender rate. Another 2% on exit. Lendy (when they were trading as Savingstream) have been quoted in this post as taking the profit on "day one" There are probably not any FCA rules on where pre-paid interest is held because it does not fall into the category of client money.
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,330
Likes: 11,549
|
Post by ilmoro on Nov 14, 2017 21:38:16 GMT
No they dont, they get 2% upfront, the rest is earnt monthly as their margin between borrrower rate & lender rate. Another 2% on exit. Lendy (when they were trading as Savingstream) have been quoted in this post as taking the profit on "day one" There are probably not any FCA rules on where pre-paid interest is held because it does not fall into the category of client money. Fair point though I am slightly suspicious of that post now as it I think that was at the time of the old T&Cs. I believe that prepaid interest does count as client money and is governed by client money rules. Lendy do keep the retained interest in the borrowers client account not their account (they have confirmed as such) and Im pretty sure AC treat it as client money as well given how they regularly seem to have delays paying it out because they have to get the trustee to authorise the payment from the client account. In the case of their 'fees' I guess this depends on how the payments are structured in the agreement but I still suspect they are segregated. However, as copacetic has said not really relevant to the point he was making.
|
|
chunkie
Member of DD Central
Posts: 121
Likes: 83
|
Post by chunkie on Nov 25, 2017 15:31:38 GMT
Of the "okay" loan presumably around 25 of those will be DFLs? Of the 30 DFLs: - 4 are overdue (001, 002, 006 and 010). Others would be too if not for several extensions.
- 4 are suspended (001, 002, 016 and 017). Note: 001 and 002 are both overdue and suspended.
So, I think 24 DFLs would be currently classed as 'okay' in the sense that they are IOA (positive term) and can be traded normally. For the suspensions, I'm using the list that mary posted in this thread on November 9th. As of Nov 25th combined "defaults", "late" and "suspended" loans stands at 37.9% (expressed as a % of all unpaid loans).
|
|
|
Post by doonio on Nov 27, 2017 19:54:55 GMT
As of Nov 25th combined "defaults", "late" and "suspended" loans stands at 37.9% (expressed as a % of all unpaid loans). That amount is not puting smile on my face. There were some updates un suspended loans, lets see what the December will bring us.
|
|
chunkie
Member of DD Central
Posts: 121
Likes: 83
|
Post by chunkie on Nov 28, 2017 2:09:10 GMT
As of Nov 25th combined "defaults", "late" and "suspended" loans stands at 37.9% (expressed as a % of all unpaid loans). That amount is not puting smile on my face. There were some updates un suspended loans, lets see what the December will bring us. Yes, if we can believe those updates the percentage should improve quite a bit.
|
|