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Post by optymystic on Feb 18, 2019 16:50:02 GMT
The Market
I have just taken a butcher's 'ook at what is humorously referred to as the market in CHP debentures, there are 30 offers for a little over £50000 worth of debentures from punters obviously anxious to get out. One offer alone has so far received a bid at 81.4% of face value. Abundance reports "There have been no trades made on our marketplace for this investment yet."
Well fancy that.
I gather that the 1% premium made available to investors who ponied up the additional 20% to keep M*****w V****y solvent is non-tradeable. So they have received a non-tradeable bonus on an investment in which there is no market.
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scc
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Post by scc on Feb 18, 2019 17:02:26 GMT
It's the first day of reopening of trading, isn't it? I don't think there's anything to worry about just yet. Might even be some bargains to snap up.
Also bear in mind that many will have thought they were initially only offering their cash up for a year - not nearly a couple of decades.
Personally, I'm more worried by your image a few posts up. Erm....where is the equipment?
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Post by optymystic on Feb 18, 2019 17:14:31 GMT
Personally, I'm more worried by your image a few posts up. Erm....where is the equipment? The generating equipment in which you are interested is beyond the wall in the right of the photo or at least it was when previously I visited. Understandably the bulk of the floor space is devoted to the handling of the wood chip which is being dried for sale to other businesses, (that's where the heat energy is being realised) and also used to fuel the power generators.
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Post by optymystic on Feb 18, 2019 21:36:41 GMT
I don't think there's anything to worry about just yet. Might even be some bargains to snap up. A market is beginning to emerge, the offers are coming in at 80% of face value, so vendors are being offered a big hit.
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treeman
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Post by treeman on Feb 18, 2019 22:04:02 GMT
I don't think there's anything to worry about just yet. Might even be some bargains to snap up. A market is beginning to emerge, the offers are coming in at 80% of face value, so vendors are being offered a big hit. Maybe ..... a very active trader/flipper. Remains to be seen if anyone will actually take those offers......
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scc
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Post by scc on Feb 19, 2019 4:58:45 GMT
I could be wrong, but I still think it's too early to say. Let's see how it all shakes out in a few weeks. I doubt the person who has bid on more than £15Ks worth will end up buying them. The secondary market is not like eBay as no-one is actually compelled to actually buy or sell at the bids made.
There might be a few early bargains, but I wouldn't be surprised if most (if they sell at all) sell at or above 100%.
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Post by GentlemansFamilyFinances on Feb 19, 2019 11:35:11 GMT
I see that most big bids are at about 80-90% of par.
I don't know if that's a good price to buy or a bad price to sell...
Personally, 5% IRR isn't that great but it's not that bad either.
Any flippers out there might find that there is very low volume of buys/sells on this one and if you hold any, you are in for the long haul!
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Post by optymystic on Mar 3, 2019 12:57:41 GMT
These debentures pay 5% plus an uplift for the additional sums contributed recently. I have verified with my spreadsheets that if you take the income stream that doesn't actually commence until June 2020 and calculate the return with 1st January 2019 as the date of commencement for purposes of calculation that is indeed the aggregate rate of return over the ensuing 17 years. However, should we live that long, come June 2020 that scenario alters. We are going to receive exactly the same income stream, but it starts now. According to the same spreadsheets revised with those dates, the rate of return from June 2020 on is then about 6% pa, which should affect the valuation of the debentures especially if the repayments are actually appearing, rather than a gleam in the eye of an optimistic punter. What we need, to ensure an appropriate valuation, is that from January 2020 onwards the quoted interest rate is 6%
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Post by GentlemansFamilyFinances on Mar 14, 2019 13:56:59 GMT
From looking at the secondary market - only one part sold for par and the rest were discounted by between 5 and 20%. It goes to show what a bad taste has been left in the investors mouths that some are willing to sell for a big haircut (~£12000 traded so far) when if this was a virgin project, you might expect it to be selling at between 0-5% premium like a couple of others. If I had the money, I'd look at buying at around 90% but there aren't many trades completing I think at the moment. It would take someone with deep pockets, big balls or better info. to step in and hoover up everything and shift the price upwards (and that person isn't me.  ) |
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Post by optymystic on Mar 20, 2019 12:15:23 GMT
Personally, I'm more worried by your image a few posts up. Erm....where is the equipment? The generating equipment in which you are interested is beyond the wall in the right of the photo or at least it was when previously I visited. Understandably the bulk of the floor space is devoted to the handling of the wood chip which is being dried for sale to other businesses, (that's where the heat energy is being realised) and also used to fuel the power generators. I took another sniff around the site the other day as I do when I am in the vicinity and I noticed that a large screen has been erected above the wall separating the space between the boilers and the wood chip handling. Whether or not the facility is fully functional I have not been able to ascertain.
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Post by GentlemansFamilyFinances on Apr 17, 2019 11:47:39 GMT
I've received an update about this project.
After picking some up for 85% of par value, I think that this is going to be a longer term hold for me. Progress seems to be good if a bit slow and hopefully the project will be able to deliver the promised returns.
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scc
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Post by scc on Apr 17, 2019 23:58:35 GMT
Yes, it all seems rather encouraging. The tone of the update seemed rather less frazzled than previous ones. I wish 'em well.
GFF, you may end up doing OK with that. By my reckoning the secondary market values look like they are improving a little too.
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Post by optymystic on Apr 18, 2019 9:39:43 GMT
I think that this is going to be a longer term hold for me. Just how old do you expect to be in 2036?
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Post by GentlemansFamilyFinances on Apr 18, 2019 13:14:04 GMT
I'll be in my 50's by then but I'm happy to take the 5% coupon with the 15% discount for now.
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Post by optymystic on Jan 14, 2020 13:50:04 GMT
The major trades seem to be taking place at around the 75% mark
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