hendragon
Member of DD Central
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Post by hendragon on Nov 22, 2017 22:43:25 GMT
You really think you beat a 'big data' AI system (or 3) trading at Ghz rates with high volume spreads and charges? Lotsa luck! And folks complain about bots on FC or Ly? To which end a number of hedge funds have given up on the basis that they can predict what human traders might do but cannot predict what the computers will. I have heard several interviews with fund managers who admitted that they were unable to predict what their own trading algos were going to do. What chance have we mere mortals got then?
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yangmills
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Post by yangmills on Nov 22, 2017 23:21:09 GMT
My financial advisor, a safe harbour style of investment house has sold my FTSE 100 tracker and bought the FTSE All-Share as they don't like the current FTSE 100 based on the way the USD/GBP is the only real affect on it. The FTSE All-share (ASX) has outperformed the FTSE 100 modestly over the past 30 years (total return of 8.27%/annum on ASX vs. 8.00% on FTSE100, dividends reinvested). This is mainly due to the FTSE 250 and FTSE Small Cap outperforming the megacaps in the FTSE100. However, given the FTSE 100 represents 80% of the market cap of the FTSE ASX, the fact that you move from 100 companies to over 600 companies doesn't actually provide any diversification benefit at all. The return correlation since 1990 between the FTSE 100 and FTSE ASX is around 98-99% (it briefly went to 92-93% in the early 1990s). It's worth noting that the return correlation of the FTSE250 and the FTSE Small Cap indices to the FTSE100 are around 80% and 70%, respectively.
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Post by dan1 on Nov 23, 2017 0:24:14 GMT
If only us retail clients could invest in a FTSE Small Cap low cost tracker! Why on earth hasn't this gaping void in trackerdom been filled yet? @vanguard @blackrock @hsbc db  ? Edit: ok, non-advised too, I'm not including Dimensional because it's certainly not low cost |
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macq
Member of DD Central
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Post by macq on Nov 23, 2017 0:44:29 GMT
If only us retail clients could invest in a FTSE Small Cap low cost tracker! Why on earth hasn't this gaping void in trackerdom been filled yet? @vanguard @blackrock @hsbc db ? Edit: ok, non-advised too, I'm not including Dimensional because it's certainly not low cost UBS UK small company tracker,iShares small cap etf,HSBC 250 tracker or Vanguard global small cap may fit the bill
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Post by martinde21 on Nov 23, 2017 6:54:25 GMT
Part of me thinks this is click bait.
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angrysaveruk
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S
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Post by angrysaveruk on Nov 23, 2017 9:44:33 GMT
The P2P market is getting hot, take your money out now before the bubble bursts. Im going to ride the storm out via the FTSE 100. You obviously have not lived through a stock market crash which is probably overdue. I know what it feels like to have lost 30%+ on a "low risk" portfolio in a couple of days. Something tells me the next downturn is going to be super nasty and the inflated stock markets are going to be hit first and hardest. In my opinion the only time to buy equities is after a crash and hope you can build up enough profit to absorb the next downturn. As a side note I am running down my P2P investments over time since I believe every asset class is going to be hit when it hits the fan. I have been in P2P for 5 years and made some pretty decent low risk returns.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Nov 23, 2017 9:50:10 GMT
I believe that I know nothing about what the future will bring, and that making an educated guess is at best only slightly more likely than 50:50 to be correct.
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Post by carol167 on Nov 23, 2017 10:45:38 GMT
Fortune favours the brave.
A fool and his money is soon parted.
Take your pick.
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macq
Member of DD Central
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Post by macq on Nov 23, 2017 12:20:42 GMT
Fortune favours the brave. A fool and his money is soon parted. Take your pick. what about a brave fool? 
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Post by codliveroil on Nov 23, 2017 12:28:36 GMT
Big defaults, increasing debts, platforms losing millions each year. The stack of cards will fall down.
Same will happen with Bitcoin.
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Post by dan1 on Nov 23, 2017 13:03:52 GMT
If only us retail clients could invest in a FTSE Small Cap low cost tracker! Why on earth hasn't this gaping void in trackerdom been filled yet? @vanguard @blackrock @hsbc db ? Edit: ok, non-advised too, I'm not including Dimensional because it's certainly not low cost UBS UK small company tracker,iShares small cap etf,HSBC 250 tracker or Vanguard global small cap may fit the bill Thanks macq for prompting me to look into this again. I'd not heard of the UBS tracker but I think it's only available in insurance backed pension funds (e.g. those from Aviva, L&G, Standard Life, etc). The iShares MSCI UK Small Cap is interesting because, in my opinion, it's really a closet FTSE 250 ETF. The MSCI UK Small Cap index captures the bottom 15% of the UK market, with an average market cap of $1,308M. Compare that to the FTSE Small Cap which captures the bottom 3-4%, with an average market cap of $414M. The biggest holding in the MSCI index is Rentokil and they're in the FTSE 100! And yes, the Vanguard Global Small Cap gets the thumbs up from me but an equivalent UK tracker would allow you to home bias (or not depending on your view of the impact of brexit!) a portfolio.
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Post by sayyestocress on Nov 23, 2017 13:08:48 GMT
Big defaults, increasing debts, platforms losing millions each year. The stack of cards will fall down. Same will happen with Bitcoin. Non-profitable platforms can be attributed (in part at least) to the companies being young and chasing growth to be big enough for their business models to work. Big defaults were always going to happen as young companies loan books mature, especially on the 12%ers. Whilst I think you're right to have concerns, I am of the opinion that most other places you could stash you money (stocks and shares for example) face similar levels of risk and there's room for most things in a diversified portfolio.
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macq
Member of DD Central
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Post by macq on Nov 23, 2017 13:49:18 GMT
UBS UK small company tracker,iShares small cap etf,HSBC 250 tracker or Vanguard global small cap may fit the bill Thanks macq for prompting me to look into this again. I'd not heard of the UBS tracker but I think it's only available in insurance backed pension funds (e.g. those from Aviva, L&G, Standard Life, etc). The iShares MSCI UK Small Cap is interesting because, in my opinion, it's really a closet FTSE 250 ETF. The MSCI UK Small Cap index captures the bottom 15% of the UK market, with an average market cap of $1,308M. Compare that to the FTSE Small Cap which captures the bottom 3-4%, with an average market cap of $414M. The biggest holding in the MSCI index is Rentokil and they're in the FTSE 100! And yes, the Vanguard Global Small Cap gets the thumbs up from me but an equivalent UK tracker would allow you to home bias (or not depending on your view of the impact of brexit!) a portfolio. oops missed the details on the UBS fund but had seen it mentioned over the last few months.The Vanguard global small cap is one of my few trackers & so far so good. It could be you want a micro cap fund but it might be worth a look at small cap IT's some of which can be quite cheap for fee's and may come with a discount such as the Henderson smaller companies or Dunedin or even the Standard life uk smaller co. which i have found to be good but cost's more.Also F & C global smaller companies v's the Vanguard tracker
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arbster
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Post by arbster on Nov 23, 2017 16:19:02 GMT
Fortune favours the brave. A fool and his money is soon parted. Take your pick. what about a brave fool? Typically they make a lot of money then lose it all.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Nov 23, 2017 16:22:13 GMT
UBS UK small company tracker,iShares small cap etf,HSBC 250 tracker or Vanguard global small cap may fit the bill Thanks macq for prompting me to look into this again. I'd not heard of the UBS tracker but I think it's only available in insurance backed pension funds (e.g. those from Aviva, L&G, Standard Life, etc). The iShares MSCI UK Small Cap is interesting because, in my opinion, it's really a closet FTSE 250 ETF. The MSCI UK Small Cap index captures the bottom 15% of the UK market, with an average market cap of $1,308M. Compare that to the FTSE Small Cap which captures the bottom 3-4%, with an average market cap of $414M. The biggest holding in the MSCI index is Rentokil and they're in the FTSE 100! And yes, the Vanguard Global Small Cap gets the thumbs up from me but an equivalent UK tracker would allow you to home bias (or not depending on your view of the impact of brexit!) a portfolio. Marlborough UK Micro Cap Growth has consistently been one of the strongest performers in my equity portfolio over the last 5 years, earning its management charge many times over (vs its benchmark). I'm all for using low-cost trackers / ETFs in many sectors but wonder if Micro-Caps isn't one where a strong track record of stock-picking expertise is worth paying for.
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