cobi
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Post by cobi on Dec 6, 2017 18:14:10 GMT
I wanted to know how the provision fund changes over time so I've set up a google sheet to store the values once a day. It's only just started but if anyone is interested it can be found at goo.gl/YRBRzf
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Post by deckard on Dec 6, 2017 18:17:08 GMT
Looks very useful. Is this automated? If so, how did you do it, out of interest?
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cobi
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Post by cobi on Dec 6, 2017 18:41:50 GMT
Yes it is automated. It uses IMPORTHTML to get the data and a google script to take the snapshot of the data on a daily trigger.
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keith
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Post by keith on Dec 7, 2017 10:45:15 GMT
That is very useful, thanks very much.
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copacetic
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Post by copacetic on Dec 7, 2017 11:11:54 GMT
Very useful, well done. I was looking for historical information on the provision fund just to see how much it fluctuates and when it hits new lows as it's an important risk flag for the platform. The monthly statements just give the coverage ratio but it's great having all the information collated onto one spreadsheet. The actual cash amounts in the fund are also good to keep an eye on rather than the overall coverage ratio since the future losses and recoveries are just estimates.
IMO this is a candidate for sticky material if it continues to auto update!
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Post by dan1 on Dec 7, 2017 11:56:59 GMT
Thanks cobi. Neil_P2PBlog plotted the coverage ratio but the data seems to end mid-March (see here) although useful for historical context. Any intentions to resurrect this Neil?
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spiral
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Post by spiral on Dec 7, 2017 12:31:00 GMT
Great stuff cobi. I'm not familiar with google spreadsheets but if this was excel, I would display a chart to provide a visual display of the data. Is that possible with google spreadsheets?
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Dec 7, 2017 12:40:15 GMT
Very useful. I'm selling out (at least from rolling) at between 105% and 100%
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Post by propman on Dec 7, 2017 14:09:28 GMT
Please would you let us know what is in column I? Personally I also track the loans with 2 & 3+ payments in arrears as an early warning for defaults. Personally I do not fully trust the estimated future defaults and so apply my own extrapolation. I also keep my eye on "credit fees received" less "Actual Losses to Date" rather than the disclosed "Contributions" in the Fund as they have never explained why this is lower. Finally, I think the description of the "Contractual Future Income" as "Potential Recovery" is a little misleading. I thought the former is an estimate of the future payments due by borrowers to the Fund. Expected recoveries appear to be netted off the expected future losses (hence 2 periods expecting negative future defaults).
- PM
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Neil_P2PBlog
P2P Blogger
Use @p2pblog to tag me :-)
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Post by Neil_P2PBlog on Dec 7, 2017 15:01:05 GMT
dan1 - I left a scrape running with the intention to redo the report at some point. Following cobi 's lead I've put my historical data here - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bc2V9WiMad9ObEpKmnD7aMr2TqJhq_guWxYMJRqG_3M/edit?usp=sharingcopacetic - this may be similar to what you are looking for for historical data. If you put it into excel, filter to just show the coverage ratio and then plot a graph against time it will give you a useful historical view. It covers Sep 2016 to Oct 2017 - though after that a website update has broken most of the fields. Please note it is the raw data scraped off the statistics page on the website, so there may be some errors.
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cobi
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Post by cobi on Dec 7, 2017 15:41:11 GMT
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Post by propman on Dec 20, 2017 18:47:09 GMT
Seems to have gone haywire this evening. They have significantly increased the provisions as all years are now showing further bad debts rather than negative as was the case. Conversely they are showing a further £2m in the provision fund althouth the Credit fees received have not increased significantly. There has been a significant (£800k) gap between the fees less bad debts and contributions to the fund. This is as a result of a loan sale. I can only imagine a sale of the loans that have previously defaulted.
- PM
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cobi
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Post by cobi on Dec 29, 2017 18:47:42 GMT
Added chart but it's pretty dull.
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spiral
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Post by spiral on Dec 30, 2017 10:44:44 GMT
cobi . To make it less "dull" could you: a) separate the charts so we don't look for 1% movements in a 300% scale and b) zoom in the scale such that say the coverage ratio looks at the min to max values of the current range. At least then the chart would span the entire range of the chart rather than being a pretty much straight line. Thanks for the data anyway.
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cobi
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Post by cobi on Dec 30, 2017 11:28:55 GMT
cobi . To make it less "dull" could you: a) separate the charts so we don't look for 1% movements in a 300% scale and b) zoom in the scale such that say the coverage ratio looks at the min to max values of the current range. At least then the chart would span the entire range of the chart rather than being a pretty much straight line. Thanks for the data anyway. Done
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