ingwer
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Post by ingwer on Dec 23, 2017 13:16:21 GMT
At the moment I would not except for the c. 300+ days loans and then sell at c. 200 days. My main issue is transparency. Tell us the bad news / platform changes / interest issues etc. before we find them ourselves.
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Post by mrclondon on Dec 23, 2017 13:52:21 GMT
When I started investing in P2P (3yrs ago) I didn't expect to suffer big losses on property backed loans unless the property market fell. The property market hasn't fallen, but some defaults have been catastrophic. Me neither. I'm still smarting from the 42% capital shortfall on AC's #330 secured property loan after disposal of the asset, with further recovery mainly dependent on a claim against the original valuer (uphill battle IMO). That is my largest p2p loss in ££££ terms. However, I suspect that statement from sqh rings true at many p2p platforms as well, particularly at those that have morphed into property lending from other specialisms. I think platforms have been far too slow in recognising that there is a systemic problem, and in adapting their processes accordingly. Whilst I would prefer that the MS reports were being published, I am greatly encouraged by the tone and detail in the more recent fortnightly loan updates, which to me implies they now have a better understanding of the underlying risks. For lenders in some of the distressed loans this is inevitably going to come across as closing the stable door after the horse has bolted, but if maintained could see Lendy morph back into everyone's favourite platform. I see many parallels between AC's disastrous 2014 bridging loans, and some of the distressed Lendy loans. AC have learnt from those "disasters" and moved on, Lendy I believe is capable of achieving similar. The existence of a provision fund in the context of lumpy property finance has always been IMO more unhelpful than helpful, and will have skewed the risk perception of at least some lenders. The sooner it is ditched the better, and losses become totally transparent. Capital losses in p2p investing are inevitable, and disguising the fact is IMO not helpful. Which is all a long winded way of saying providing Lendy carry on along the course they are currently sailing, I'll be continuing to invest in SOME of their loans (after my own DD) irrespective of the size of any losses declared on the currently distressed loans.
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Dec 23, 2017 14:15:52 GMT
It looks to me they are a lot stricter in the loan contracts with covenants, sequestered income, intra loan milestones, early exit updates, facilitating vacant possession. They've learned a lot (the hard way) and have a much more experienced team now.
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seeingred
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Post by seeingred on Dec 23, 2017 16:51:49 GMT
The default loan book is currently around £32 million and if DFL002 is added at -180 days (currently -146 days) it will add another £3 million.
Glos may indeed prove a miracle (we'll wait and see......) but most of those loans are small. IoW is large.
Actual capital losses may be some way down the line for many of these existing defaults: they can be stuck in legals for over a year.
The P2P market now has more players than it did when Lendy started out. This competition for investor funds may come into sharper focus just at the time when investors are feeling the pain of their first crystallised losses on Lendy.
For example, if MT and COL managed to offer a succession of good quality loans (better than they have offered recently) then despite Lendy's improved internal competence (so it has been alleged) this may not prevent funds draining away to competitors who may be perceived to have a sounder base.
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p2p2p
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Post by p2p2p on Dec 23, 2017 17:12:55 GMT
18 months into p2p I'm getting bored with the DD, as I don't think I'm a good spotter of loans and have an edge. I also expect defaults, and if that reduces my return from 12 to 6%, so be it, provided I need to spend less time worrying about it all. So I'm reducing my LL portfolio with large loans to get the diversity with other providers with autobid, like FC.
If LL just ran the portfolio, guaranteeing diversity across borrowers (too many linked loans through linked companies ATM, as obviously referral is the way they get business), I could ignore the losses, and just admire the return each year. I'd be disappointed if the actually lost some of my money, but not upset, after all I'm happy with passive equity funds, which can lose 30% of their value in a week. returns=risk
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brianlom1
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He's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy!
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Post by brianlom1 on Dec 23, 2017 22:00:00 GMT
At the moment I would not except for the c. 300+ days loans and then sell at c. 200 days. My main issue is transparency. Tell us the bad news / platform changes / interest issues etc. before we find them ourselves. Like many fellow investors, I got my fingers burned at ReBS (they basically threw existing investors under the bus when they realised they'd handed our money to a bunch of unscrupulous rogues). If L deal with defaults in the same way, I'm now better equipped to spot the warning signs and take appropriate action. L is no longer as attractive a proposition as SS was but many of the changes would appear to have been imposed by the FCA. That said, the quality of L's communication is certainly a cause for concern so I've been reducing exposure to existing loans and only making small investments in new loans. IMO, the jury's out. L have the opportunity to redeem themselves but until they do so I'll only be making token investments.
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Post by skint4achange on Dec 23, 2017 22:21:10 GMT
IMO Paul's influence within the Lendy organisation goes well beyond 'Weekly Roundup' I view his presence as a stabilising influence I also believe him to have a canny, intuitive mind. He has brought and will hopefully continue to bring considerable experience to bear. Lendy need such a man. I found it particularly fascinating to watch the interplay between Liam and Paul during their joint podcast published on Youtube (2017) especially Liam placing his hands on Paul's shoulders and to paraphrase Liam: 'I don't know what we'd do without you'. Yes one could ponder and conclude without labouring the mind too much. Think DFL's 1 & 2, gasp, cringe, think IoW, hide in a Cowes shed. Ponder yes, reflect yes then to my mind Liam's hands upon shoulders and his utterances may be understood. Paul is a listener, a thinker he posses a strong intuitive resolve. I like this man's style and his intrinsic leadership acumen. As for lending funds again through Lendy? Yes but with a prudence and careful eye. Why? For the reasons expressed above and additionally for the measured an courteous way Paul PM'd me about my sharp comments, key word: "drivel" then following on from this by engaging with us on how best to improve upon 'Weekly Roundup'. As long as Paul listens, considers and adapts Lendy should recover and may even surprise; IMO Lendy is slowly becoming a 'recovery stock', they stand a good chance of shedding their basket case image. All the best and a Happy Christmas, J. Ps: Could someone please help by locating the Lendy podcast from Youtube? Thank you.
Very eloquent! Do you mean this Podcast?
www.financialthing.com/podcast009-part1-lendy/
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Post by charliebrown on Dec 24, 2017 21:28:56 GMT
I am currently not investing any additional funds in LY and am withdrawing funds as and when they become available.
As people have said and I agree, it’s not realistic to expect 12% returns and zero defaults forever.
The main thing that’s caused me to lose confidence is the poor communications and also by working my way through the default and suspended loans (some of which I’m invested in) and looking at what has transpired and the position they’re now in. Many are in a seemingly unrecoverable mess. Not just troubled but a total disaster. They are sat there rotting with really unhelpful updates. I just looked at PBL027 where the latest update states “we are continuing to chase the borrower for his exit strategy” even though this loan is 373 days overdue. Unbelievable.
Confidence is everything and I’m afraid my confidence has been lost. I wouldn’t continue to invest nor recommend LY at the current time.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Dec 24, 2017 22:54:50 GMT
Yes I will continue to invest in loans I like. I’ve dodged a few bullets through luck but also there are a few developers who I like who need Lendy for high value DFLs (SD and SigLv)
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rocky1
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Post by rocky1 on Dec 31, 2017 9:15:59 GMT
good morning .just off to work had a quick look while having my tea from what i can see is we are starting 2018 with 68 live loans 37 of which have plenty in available loans and 15 of which are IA and heading for DEF IMO. 5 pipeline loans LENDY PLEASE ENSURE YOUR DD GDVs and VALUATIONS ARE ACCURATE for your loans. at the moment 21 loans in DEF i think 2018 will bring a whole load of work for the legal side of things here in lendyland.could any members help out with the maths and financials likely to show a lot of capital losses and no chance of interest.as i have said before the initial valuations and gdvs of nearly every loan are proving to have been very misleading and totally miles out of the real values.i hope lendy can prove us wrong in 2018 but i for 1 will not be investing any more until some of this backlog is cleared up.
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ingwer
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Post by ingwer on Dec 31, 2017 17:07:11 GMT
A year or so ago with 0 available in the SM, the Lendy / SS model was on the face of it a success but a few months later having reaped what they have sown, it is looking difficult to justify further investment. That said, many of the new loans/tranches are a success and some loans on the SM are moving. So not everyone sees it as most on here. Hopefully the new year will bring Lendy some success in resolving the imbalance between the bad and the good.
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gwenynwyr
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Post by gwenynwyr on Dec 31, 2017 17:58:26 GMT
When I started with Lendy about a year ago a good many loans were very much overdue but this seemed to make little difference to their attractiveness to the SM. At that time only one loan was labelled default, and even that was still available (if I remember correctly). The big change came with the decision to define the overdue loans according to days overdue, with final default being set at 180 days with serious efforts being made to recover at least the capital. I think Lendy have taken on board the need to act in our interests and pursue defaulters relentlessly. Happily I have avoided the worst , mainly historical cases, and intend to continue with Lendy as long as Lendy continue to improve their procedures
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hector
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Post by hector on Dec 31, 2017 19:07:54 GMT
I suspect you might currently still be in the honeymoon period, namely where the loans you have invested in are less than 12 months old & not started to display age warts. It seems a common trait with all platforms, & loans within those platforms, that the first 12 months is all milk & honey & problems do not start to become apparent until after 18 months. Of course by then it's usually too late and all the future holds is an expensive, long drawn out, financially & emotionally draining, divorce with the legal boys (& girls) rubbing their hands. Happy 2018.
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pom
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Post by pom on Dec 31, 2017 20:10:33 GMT
I thought I would really miss them but instead I continue to feel relieved that I almost (grr!) managed a total exit.... I thought I'd struggle to find other homes for my money but apparently not. Perhaps I might be getting a slightly lower rate overall (I really can't be bothered to addictively track XIRRs), but I am quite happy with that. I am generally totally happy with the idea of loans overrunning or even ending up in default, and have quite a significant amount tied up in problem loans on other sites. Yet I feel far more comfortable with these - even where I have more tied up than I'd ever have put in a single Lendy loan. Yep there are sure to still be some good loans but it all became a bit too much like hard work for me.
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Post by charliebrown on Jan 2, 2018 8:54:08 GMT
I suspect you might currently still be in the honeymoon period, namely where the loans you have invested in are less than 12 months old & not started to display age warts. It seems a common trait with all platforms, & loans within those platforms, that the first 12 months is all milk & honey & problems do not start to become apparent until after 18 months. Of course by then it's usually too late and all the future holds is an expensive, long drawn out, financially & emotionally draining, divorce with the legal boys (& girls) rubbing their hands. Happy 2018. I was a bit slow to catch on to how bad things really can be. If Lendy agree a 12 month loan and collect “interest” upfront they essentially spend 12 months paying us back some of our own money so that at face value everything looks rosy. The problem is that the loan could have defaulted on day 1 as the borrower never seriously intended to repay us. We wouldn’t find out until 12 months + 180 days later as Lendy would have been feeding us useless and meaningless updates for the past 12 months. We’d then enter some type of recovery process where it would take 2 to 3 years to get back a small proportion of what we put in. It seems Lendy, the borrower and the legal team all take gains no matter what happens yet investors are left high and dry.
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