micky
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Post by micky on Jan 8, 2018 12:29:44 GMT
Would anyone share info?
How do the returns from Vanguard/Hargreaves type equity ISA's compare to the P2P returns from FS, Lendy, MT, Alb type platforms
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jan 8, 2018 12:34:58 GMT
I have some appetite for risk/fun, but for non-taxpayers at least I really don't like the maths of premium bonds.
Let's say you want to put in the full £50,000 for 3 years. The MSE calculator says that the return you can expect with average luck is £1500 over that period, i.e. circa 1% p.a
Alternatively, you can put that in the 3 year NS & I guaranteed growth bond for 3 years at 2.2%, earning you a guaranteed £3373.
The interesting point on the very handy MSE calculator is that feeding in that £3373 figure the other way around, only 0.839% of people who buy that amount of premium bonds and hold them for 3 years can expect to earn £3373 or more.
A sub-1% chance of matching or beating my guaranteed return? No thanks!
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jan 8, 2018 12:43:30 GMT
Would anyone share info? How do the returns from Vanguard/Hargreaves type equity ISA's compare to the P2P returns from FS, Lendy, MT, Alb type platforms It's probably a bit of a moot point, micky. You don't say what equity funds you'd invest in, but a Vanguard global index tracker for example has smashed the average returns of P2P in the last 9 years or so. The problem is that to say past performance doesn't indicate future performance is a bit of an understatement in this case. It's quite conceivable that P2P will totally reverse the trend over the next 5 years if equities crash and P2P potters along. Or they won't, we've no idea. Tbh, I just wouldn't compare the returns at all, except to say that by using both at least you are diversifying (although of course performance is not going to be entirely uncorrelated).
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macq
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Post by macq on Jan 8, 2018 12:46:31 GMT
I have some appetite for risk/fun, but for non-taxpayers at least I really don't like the maths of premium bonds. Let's say you want to put in the full £50,000 for 3 years. The MSE calculator says that the return you can expect with average luck is £1500 over that period, i.e. circa 1% p.a Alternatively, you can put that in the 3 year NS & I guaranteed growth bond for 3 years at 2.2%, earning you a guaranteed £3373. The interesting point on the very handy MSE calculator is that feeding in that £3373 figure the other way around, only 0.839% of people who buy that amount of premium bonds and hold them for 3 years can expect to earn £3373 or more. A sub-1% chance of matching or beating my guaranteed return? No thanks! you may get more people doing the growth bond now as i think its only in the last month or two they have raised the limit on how much you could put in
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Post by dan1 on Jan 8, 2018 12:58:06 GMT
I have some appetite for risk/fun, but for non-taxpayers at least I really don't like the maths of premium bonds. Let's say you want to put in the full £50,000 for 3 years. The MSE calculator says that the return you can expect with average luck is £1500 over that period, i.e. circa 1% p.a Alternatively, you can put that in the 3 year NS & I guaranteed growth bond for 3 years at 2.2%, earning you a guaranteed £3373. The interesting point on the very handy MSE calculator is that feeding in that £3373 figure the other way around, only 0.839% of people who buy that amount of premium bonds and hold them for 3 years can expect to earn £3373 or more. A sub-1% chance of matching or beating my guaranteed return? No thanks! May I bit a little bit cheeky and suggest the chance of the equivalent interest rate remaining at 1.4% over the next 3 years is probably less than 0.839% ? I like your maths (math to those over the pond) but your axiom stinks 
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Post by df on Jan 8, 2018 13:17:35 GMT
Thank you for sharing this info. It is interesting to see the examples of return people getting from premium bonds. It might be useful for me in future, should I decide to give it a go. At the moment I'm getting 1.4% from Coventry 'telephone saver' (works like an ordinary instant access) and 1.44% from Birmingham Midshire, which are feeding an endless amount of regular savers at 2.5-5%. I didn't attempt calculating my average return from the whole banks/building societies package, but it is probably around 2-2.2%. pretty good return for cash - i would stick with that if you don't want the gamble/bit of fun ... it could even be close to 3%, my estimates are always on a low side  . Yes, I'm happy with majority of my cash staying within FSCS and a smaller proportion in P2P for gamble/bit of fun and some compensation for low interest rates I get from banks. The only trouble is - having 34 cash accounts and 17 p2p platforms and constantly shifting funds from one to another it is very difficult to calculate the % of my overall annual return.
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Post by misterp2p on Jan 8, 2018 13:41:53 GMT
20% P2P
20% cash
60% Equity ( long term buy hold , trackers )
I'm increasingly worried I'm overexposed to P2P, I have run down my Zopa account but like AC. I have holding in 3 other platforms but 20% of my portfolio is from money stoozed at 0%. As I had nowhere else to really go with cash I've sort of over committed to P2P by default. However its giving my target interest that necessary kick...I'd like to pull more out but the thought of premium bonds whilst appealing as "safe" terrifies me yielding nothing. Maybe I should just reign the P2P back and accept more at 1.4% in a BS ?
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Nomad
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Post by Nomad on Jan 8, 2018 13:52:01 GMT
20% P2P 20% cash 60% Equity ( long term buy hold , trackers ) I'm increasingly worried I'm overexposed to P2P, I have run down my Zopa account but like AC. I have holding in 3 other platforms but 20% of my portfolio is from money stoozed at 0%. As I had nowhere else to really go with cash I've sort of over committed to P2P by default. However its giving my target interest that necessary kick...I'd like to pull more out but the thought of premium bonds whilst appealing as "safe" terrifies me yielding nothing. Maybe I should just reign the P2P back and accept more at 1.4% in a BS ? I am scaling back on AC, Abl, MT, etc and focussing more on Wise Alpha, Archover, and the like...
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pom
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Post by pom on Jan 8, 2018 15:46:45 GMT
I have some appetite for risk/fun, but for non-taxpayers at least I really don't like the maths of premium bonds. Let's say you want to put in the full £50,000 for 3 years. The MSE calculator says that the return you can expect with average luck is £1500 over that period, i.e. circa 1% p.a Alternatively, you can put that in the 3 year NS & I guaranteed growth bond for 3 years at 2.2%, earning you a guaranteed £3373. The interesting point on the very handy MSE calculator is that feeding in that £3373 figure the other way around, only 0.839% of people who buy that amount of premium bonds and hold them for 3 years can expect to earn £3373 or more. A sub-1% chance of matching or beating my guaranteed return? No thanks! You could...but it's not really comparing like with like - of course you can get a higher rate if you're prepared to sacrifice liquidity. But yeah if you don't pay tax then they're not worth it...but you can probably say that about a lot of things. I wonder if the MSE calculator is up to date, because they keep tweaking the odds as well as the rate, and the current odds suggest that someone with 50k should win twice a month = 1800 over 3yrs assuming £25 wins.
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Post by df on Jan 8, 2018 16:10:26 GMT
20% P2P 20% cash 60% Equity ( long term buy hold , trackers ) I'm increasingly worried I'm overexposed to P2P, I have run down my Zopa account but like AC. I have holding in 3 other platforms but 20% of my portfolio is from money stoozed at 0%. As I had nowhere else to really go with cash I've sort of over committed to P2P by default. However its giving my target interest that necessary kick...I'd like to pull more out but the thought of premium bonds whilst appealing as "safe" terrifies me yielding nothing. Maybe I should just reign the P2P back and accept more at 1.4% in a BS ? I'd consider 20% P2P in only 3 platforms as 'too risky', depending on platforms of course. AC is sound, it is in low risk category in my book. Zopa, IMO, is no longer an attractive investment since PF was abolished. I keep it running down, not reinvested anything since last October.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2018 16:30:21 GMT
I live off my P2P earnings and that requires 5% of my capital
85% in shares/funds all over the world (but very little in China)
10% in cash and various low interest UK gov retail things
Once you take inflation off your P2P earnings and something for income tax, you need a lot from P2P to come anywhere near equity in the last 7 years.
Though, of course, it does help that sterling continues to fall against most currencies as it has since 1945. (excluding a short period under T Blair)
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Post by beeje13 on Jan 8, 2018 17:27:51 GMT
I live off my P2P earnings and that requires 5% of my capital 85% in shares/funds all over the world (but very little in China) 10% in cash and various low interest UK gov retail things Once you take inflation off your P2P earnings and something for income tax, you need a lot from P2P to come anywhere near equity in the last 7 years. Though, of course, it does help that sterling continues to fall against most currencies as it has since 1945. (excluding a short period under T Blair) Chinese funds are probably my best performers recently! Up 50% in 12 months.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2018 8:37:35 GMT
Chinese funds are probably my best performers recently! Up 50% in 12 months. And mine too 
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jan 9, 2018 9:48:25 GMT
pretty good return for cash - i would stick with that if you don't want the gamble/bit of fun ... it could even be close to 3%, my estimates are always on a low side . Yes, I'm happy with majority of my cash staying within FSCS and a smaller proportion in P2P for gamble/bit of fun and some compensation for low interest rates I get from banks. The only trouble is - having 34 cash accounts and 17 p2p platforms and constantly shifting funds from one to another it is very difficult to calculate the % of my overall annual return. You must calculate your annual return for your tax statement.
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Post by df on Jan 9, 2018 12:02:07 GMT
... it could even be close to 3%, my estimates are always on a low side . Yes, I'm happy with majority of my cash staying within FSCS and a smaller proportion in P2P for gamble/bit of fun and some compensation for low interest rates I get from banks. The only trouble is - having 34 cash accounts and 17 p2p platforms and constantly shifting funds from one to another it is very difficult to calculate the % of my overall annual return. You must calculate your annual return for your tax statement. Well, that's easy to do. The trouble is to calculate my APR.
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. Yes, I'm happy with majority of my cash staying within FSCS and a smaller proportion in P2P for gamble/bit of fun and some compensation for low interest rates I get from banks. The only trouble is - having 34 cash accounts and 17 p2p platforms and constantly shifting funds from one to another it is very difficult to calculate the % of my overall annual return. 
