|
|
Post by westonkevRS on Aug 10, 2014 16:43:41 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by geoffrey on Aug 10, 2014 19:34:58 GMT
Isn't there some small print somewhere about 'shares can go down as well as up'? I am, however, delighted that you have chosen to invest elsewhere since it will help support the rates for the rest of us. With a five-year investment horizon, you can easily afford to find high-yielding blue-chips you think will thrive during any downturn (utilities, for example), plonk the shares in a NISA, and forget for five years, or top up when the price falls. There are also the counter-cyclicals. And some major high-yielding supermarkets are currently going for a song, and one of them is at 10-year lows. Unless you really think we will all be doing our shopping in Lidl or Aldi five years from now, they're worth it just for the dividends... RS is good for diversification, and as an alternative to losing money through devaluation in a savings account. But if the rates go much below 6%, the "wall of money" will dry up. However, I agree that NISAs will bring in new funds, and the tax advantage will inevitably mean that rates will drop a little. There is a lot of competition in P2P and P2B now, and this needs to be factored in as a floor under any massive rate drop, especially in an environment of (soon) rising interest rates.
|
|
|
|
Post by moneyball on Aug 11, 2014 21:27:23 GMT
Just checked the charts again and still, even with this apparent weight of money, they indicate that the MR for the 5yr market "should" be in the 6.0-6.3% range. (on a side note, over the same time frame, theyve also indicated that the 3yr market "should" be trading in the 4.3-5.1% range. Sure enough, having been in the 4.3-4.5% range recently, today it spiked up to the "ceiling" area.)
Also, although I agree that some of the increased lending liquidity is being transferred in from Zopa and some of it is a result of organic growth from within RateSetter, Ive just noticed from the stats an interesting figure which may allude to the predominant culprit for increased lending liquidity.
Between July 31st and August 6th, nearly 3.5m of capital was repaid of existing loans. The average over the previous 8 weeks was 2.1m. Although the amount repaid will naturally fluctuate for historical reasons, a very large percentage of the increased 1.4m (over the average) would be early repayment. Of this, its almost certain that a very high percentage of this was retained within RateSetter for all the reasons described on this thread. Talk of "800k at this rate and 600k at this rate...etc" would eerily match the figures Im coming up with.
If Im correct with all this, it would explain why the rate is largely holding (ie its experienced RateSetter's that are providing the liquidity) and that it can be accommodated by RateSetters increasing loan writing amounts (June weekly average: 5.5m, July weekly average: 5.8m, Aug weekly average: 6.1m)*
* These are approximate figures
|
|
pikestaff
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,136 
Likes: 1,484
|
Post by pikestaff on Aug 12, 2014 7:22:32 GMT
...Between July 31st and August 6th, nearly 3.5m of capital was repaid of existing loans. The average over the previous 8 weeks was 2.1m. Although the amount repaid will naturally fluctuate for historical reasons, a very large percentage of the increased 1.4m (over the average) would be early repayment... Interesting. There are two reasons for early repayment: (1) The borrower chooses to repay early. (2) The borrower defaults and the loan is repaid from the provision fund. Can we tell which it is? It would be a bit worrying if we are seeing an uptick in defaults.
|
|
|
|
Post by moneyball on Aug 12, 2014 7:49:32 GMT
...Between July 31st and August 6th, nearly 3.5m of capital was repaid of existing loans. The average over the previous 8 weeks was 2.1m. Although the amount repaid will naturally fluctuate for historical reasons, a very large percentage of the increased 1.4m (over the average) would be early repayment... Interesting. There are two reasons for early repayment: (1) The borrower chooses to repay early. (2) The borrower defaults and the loan is repaid from the provision fund. Can we tell which it is? It would be a bit worrying if we are seeing an uptick in defaults. With the exception of one week in June, the provision fund has been increasing at a steady rate each week. Assuming all the figures RateSetter provide are correct, the vast majority of this capital repayment was early repayment by borrowers (for whatever reason.)
|
|
|
|
Post by geoffrey on Aug 12, 2014 11:24:04 GMT
Just checked the charts again and still, even with this apparent weight of money, they indicate that the MR for the 5yr market "should" be in the 6.0-6.3% range. (on a side note, over the same time frame, theyve also indicated that the 3yr market "should" be trading in the 4.3-5.1% range. Sure enough, having been in the 4.3-4.5% range recently, today it spiked up to the "ceiling" area.) ...SNIP... Between July 31st and August 6th, nearly 3.5m of capital was repaid of existing loans. The average over the previous 8 weeks was 2.1m. Although the amount repaid will naturally fluctuate for historical reasons, a very large percentage of the increased 1.4m (over the average) would be early repayment. Of this, its almost certain that a very high percentage of this was retained within RateSetter for all the reasons described on this thread. Talk of "800k at this rate and 600k at this rate...etc" would eerily match the figures Im coming up with. Wow, nice analysis! Are you applying Bollinger bands to the Market Rate or something? Or just working out floors and ceilings by sight? TA on RS data!
|
|
|
|
Post by moneyball on Aug 12, 2014 11:38:06 GMT
Geoffrey,
No worries. A combination of things that includes Bollinger bands. These bands can be misunderstood, it's important to determine the overall trend for the relevant time frame. Just a simple glance at ratesetters own rate trend graphs show that we've been in a gradual uptrend since about January 2014. Haven't seen anything so far to suggest this has stopped.
|
|
|
|
Post by davee39 on Aug 12, 2014 12:04:59 GMT
Geoffrey, No worries. A combination of things that includes Bollinger bands. These bands can be misunderstood, it's important to determine the overall trend for the relevant time frame. Just a simple glance at ratesetters own rate trend graphs show that we've been in a gradual uptrend since about January 2014. Haven't seen anything so far to suggest this has stopped. Well, now I have been to google & learned another piece of trivia relating to Bollinger bands. Clearly the next stop is a crowdfunding pitch to set up a platform trading in RS rates futures.
|
|
|
|
Post by djia977 on Aug 12, 2014 14:09:05 GMT
I prefer Keltner bands myself.
|
|
|
|
Post by p2plender on Dec 17, 2014 14:35:55 GMT
I hope a few read and acted to the post dated Aug 10, 2014 at 1:15pm
30% gain. Have to confess to selling too early this morning on the spike to 600p.
Sorry for off topic but my trumpet needed an airing ..... :-))
|
|
|
|
Post by geoffrey on Dec 17, 2014 22:02:41 GMT
I hope a few read and acted to the post dated Aug 10, 2014 at 1:15pm 30% gain. Have to confess to selling too early this morning on the spike to 600p. Sorry for off topic but my trumpet needed an airing ..... :-)) Congratulations! What's your next tip?!
|
|
|
|
Post by p2plender on Dec 18, 2014 10:20:12 GMT
The other one that I mentioned on the original post, Tullet Prebon (LSE:TLPR). It's recently bought an oil trading business. I'll start a thread soon as I think there's plenty of good quality stocks with decent yields.
|
|
