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Post by dualinvestor on Feb 19, 2018 15:00:23 GMT
I was an Insolvency Practitioner for 30 years, rates of bad debt rose enormously when a company wnt bust. If a platform fails you will have two levels of insolvenncy , first the debt, in this case we have less than prime borrowers and often inflated valuations at the outset, and secondly an Administrator (or someone acting in a similar capacity) trying to recover the debt, a sort of "double dip" . Additiionally in Lendy's case most new loans are DFLs (even those classed as PBLs) where refinancing will be dificult and further tranches wl not be available if Lendy no longer exists. I agree with your comment "in general bad platforms need to go bust" but not onle will this result in a bad outcome for current lenders but may have a knock on effect for the whole P2P industry. I was thinking particularly of the backup operator that every platform has to have in place to be licensed by the FCA. These agreements would presumably have to include a cost structure, and some means of determining when to give up or sell off a problem loan. Some day a bad platform will go bust and whatever knock on effect will happen. It's not clear to me that we lenders would be better off if this was delayed, and my particular reason for saying that is what appears to be a severe decline in loan quality more or less across the board. I would imagine the Administrator will have to be a licenced Insolvency Practitioner anyway, even if were only an informal run off. I believe all platforms, as part of the authorisation process have to have a run off plan that has been approved by the FCA, these probably name the Administrator and how they are to be remunerated, in the case of the latter it will probably either be by time costs or a percentage of recovery, I can't believe anybody agreeing to the appointment as a fixed fee. However I expect the fees to be insignificant compared to the bad debts that will be incurred. I also agree with your final coment thatsome day a platform will go bad, but the larger that platform is, and therefore the losses made, there will be a disproportionately larger effect on the market as a whole, possibly even a total collapse.
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MarkT
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Post by MarkT on Feb 19, 2018 15:21:55 GMT
I think that there are just too many players in the property P2P platform market and that a period of consolidation is inevitable. The only real uncertainty is when.
One can only hope that it is a relatively orderly affair with good platforms taking over poorer platforms.
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dandy
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Post by dandy on Feb 19, 2018 15:27:33 GMT
I think that there are just too many players in the property P2P platform market and that a period of consolidation is inevitable. The only real uncertainty is when. One can only hope that it is a relatively orderly affair with good platforms taking over poorer platforms. why would a good platform want to saddle itself with a poor platforms' bad loans and all the reputational mud that would stick ...
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rocky1
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Post by rocky1 on Feb 19, 2018 15:44:41 GMT
not sticking up for LENDYS total arrogance and all of the BS they have given us for so long now but i do believe that they will be able to pull through this by learning a very big lesson and realising how quickly the tide can turn on them .if they concentrate now the full force of their team to clean up the backlog of loans and we will have to take losses as and when.i understand that they need to keep new loans coming but some of the latest offerings are absolute insults to us and will only bring more problems in the near future
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Post by investor1925 on Feb 19, 2018 15:55:42 GMT
not sticking up for LENDYS total arrogance and all of the BS they have given us for so long now but i do believe that they will be able to pull through this by learning a very big lesson and realising how quickly the tide can turn on them .if they concentrate now the full force of their team to clean up the backlog of loans and we will have to take losses as and when.i understand that they need to keep new loans coming but some of the latest offerings are absolute insults to us and will only bring more problems in the near future They need to do this pretty pronto, else their cash is going to dry up. I, for one, am removing my cash from the platform as it is repaid to me. Hands up all those who are not
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Post by dualinvestor on Feb 19, 2018 15:59:47 GMT
not sticking up for LENDYS total arrogance and all of the BS they have given us for so long now but i do believe that they will be able to pull through this by learning a very big lesson and realising how quickly the tide can turn on them .if they concentrate now the full force of their team to clean up the backlog of loans and we will have to take losses as and when.i understand that they need to keep new loans coming but some of the latest offerings are absolute insults to us and will only bring more problems in the near future I admire your optimism rocky1 but the quality of loans has seemed to be in decline for a long while, even before they stopped offering the uniform 12%, and although I must admit I don't follow it closely they seem to be nearly all DFLs, a type of loan singularly unsuited to P2P not just Lendy.
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Balder
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Post by Balder on Feb 19, 2018 16:17:48 GMT
not sticking up for LENDYS total arrogance and all of the BS they have given us for so long now but i do believe that they will be able to pull through this by learning a very big lesson and realising how quickly the tide can turn on them .if they concentrate now the full force of their team to clean up the backlog of loans and we will have to take losses as and when.i understand that they need to keep new loans coming but some of the latest offerings are absolute insults to us and will only bring more problems in the near future I admire your optimism rocky1 but the quality of loans has seemed to be in decline for a long while, even before they stopped offering the uniform 12%, and although I must admit I don't follow it closely they seem to be nearly all DFLs, a type of loan singularly unsuited to P2P not just Lendy. Unfortunately for me the "Mansion" in Oxfordshire shows they have not learnt their lesson!
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Post by samford71 on Feb 19, 2018 19:41:49 GMT
I agree with others on this thread. Nothing I have seen in 20 years of being in fixed income markets would suggest that platform failure would lead to anything other than higher default rates and substantially suppressed recovery values. In that sense, we need to protect the platform' balance sheet which means denying platforms the ability to co-invest alongside lenders (I'm clearly not well since I'm in agreement with the FCA)
The problem here is really the nature of these high risk property loan platforms. They take much of their income upfront and are incentivized to increase origination volumes and damn the quality. The level of experience in credit risk management and recoveries on some platforms is low. Many director's were just brokers in their prior career; the've never had to deal with owning the risk, the fallout from losses or achieving the best recovery. The regulatory framework is too weak. For example the definition of default is far too loose, allowing platforms to "kick the can down the road". Directors could, if they wished, easily extract profits from the platform before the NPL portfolio becomes unsustainable.
My view is that the platform's directors and senior employees need to be aligned with investors' interests without undermining the platform's balance sheet. To me that requires directors to have a substantial amount of their personal wealth at risk in the loan portfolio on a FILO basis (first in, last out) as many private equity and hedge funds require. In addition, as with banks and funds, a proportion of remuneration should be deferred into the loan portfolio for a multi-year period, with claw-back provisions. This is hardly a panacea (employees were major holders of Lehman and Bear Sterns stock and it didn't help) but it might reduce the short-termism and the "pump and dump" tendencies to a degree. At the platform level, you could also explicitly separate the incentive structure into management fees (for providing the intermediation service) and performance fees (which are paid to the platform only when a loan successfully redeems) i.e to reorientate focus from volume to quality.
Probabilty of any of that happening ... pretty much zero.
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Post by dualinvestor on Feb 19, 2018 20:06:59 GMT
................ Probabilty of any of that happening ... pretty much zero. Totally agree with that except I would say "less than zero"
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sirius
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Post by sirius on Feb 19, 2018 21:33:32 GMT
I'm just a lurker here on these boards, but an investor through Lendy for over a year and a half. I'm disappointed like all of you, but I can't but think there is something institutionally wrong with the UK property market. Being an EU investor, I'm invested in property loans in different EU countries as well, and none are performing as awfully as these on Lendy. In fact, late loans in other countries for me amount to about 5% with 0 defaults in 2 years, while late loans on Lendy amount for me to over 50% (expecting worse), with several suspended and potentially default. I'm pulling out of the UK market all together, it's been nothing but disappointment for me and Brexit hasn't helped either. Hi red_panda, any chance you could PM me those EU platforms too, please?
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Feb 20, 2018 7:28:42 GMT
I've got to ask you which platforms. Mods, I know, maybe a PM, I couldn't decide I PMed to you just in case. A quick search through the forum posts, or even reading the rules, will tell you that this happens all the time, and is quite ok. All we object to is blatant pushing of referral bonus links, or undercover 'shilling' by undeclared platform associates.
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poppyland
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Post by poppyland on Feb 22, 2018 12:48:44 GMT
With Lendy now withdrawing the Oxfordshire fields loan, and the latest development tranches being sluggish to fill, it seems that a significant number of investors are voting with their feet. This is perhaps the best action that can be taken. I for one will not invest in Lendy again for the foreseeable future, although like many people here, I am still tied into several defaulted and/or suspended loans, so I can't give them the boot as fast as I would like.
I still feel that valuations are the major problem across the entire P2P sector, and that somehow a way needs to be found to force valuers to give a more realistic figure. Currently it seems that valuations can only be taken as valid for a three month period, and outside that time, it is virtually impossible to take any action against the valuer. This means that valuers can say what they wish, and know they will not be taken to task for it, since any sale of the asset will fall well outside that period.
Perhaps to the required warning "your capital is at risk", should be added the warning "valuations may turn out to be incorrect". This would at least warn new investors not to be as naive as some of us (me included) were, when we took valuations and LTVs to be meaningful indicators of risk.
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bugs4me
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Post by bugs4me on Feb 22, 2018 13:02:47 GMT
With Lendy now withdrawing the Oxfordshire fields loan, and the latest development tranches being sluggish to fill, it seems that a significant number of investors are voting with their feet. This is perhaps the best action that can be taken. I for one will not invest in Lendy again for the foreseeable future, although like many people here, I am still tied into several defaulted and/or suspended loans, so I can't give them the boot as fast as I would like. I still feel that valuations are the major problem across the entire P2P sector, and that somehow a way needs to be found to force valuers to give a more realistic figure. Currently it seems that valuations can only be taken as valid for a three month period, and outside that time, it is virtually impossible to take any action against the valuer. This means that valuers can say what they wish, and know they will not be taken to task for it, since any sale of the asset will fall well outside that period. Perhaps to the required warning "your capital is at risk", should be added the warning "valuations may turn out to be incorrect". This would at least warn new investors not to be as naive as some of us (me included) were, when we took valuations and LTVs to be meaningful indicators of risk. Personally I'm pleased that lenders are voting with their feet - myself included. It's not just the valuers that are at fault - there's also a fair amount of coercion that exists between the borrower and the platform and nope, I do not have proof of that but it's convenient that everything finishes up at 70%. Platforms market themselves as professional, experienced, <fill in others here>, etc but frankly all they tend to be are self appointed experts who are driven by the bottom line and their wallets. It wasn't always like this IIRC but those standards have slipped. After all it's not their money. Membership of this forum makes up a small minority of P2P lenders. Looking at the number of guests online which tend to outnumber registered members by a factor of three then just maybe things are changing. Whether the platforms themselves will change is a different matter. No doubt the traditional 12% will edge up to 13% then 14% but the risk will remain the same - only the platforms can rebuild confidence in themselves and at the moment they're not doing a very good job IMO.
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poppyland
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Post by poppyland on Feb 22, 2018 16:57:39 GMT
Personally I'm pleased that lenders are voting with their feet - myself included. It's not just the valuers that are at fault - there's also a fair amount of coercion that exists between the borrower and the platform and nope, I do not have proof of that but it's convenient that everything finishes up at 70%. Platforms market themselves as professional, experienced, <fill in others here>, etc but frankly all they tend to be are self appointed experts who are driven by the bottom line and their wallets. It wasn't always like this IIRC but those standards have slipped. After all it's not their money. Membership of this forum makes up a small minority of P2P lenders. Looking at the number of guests online which tend to outnumber registered members by a factor of three then just maybe things are changing. Whether the platforms themselves will change is a different matter. No doubt the traditional 12% will edge up to 13% then 14% but the risk will remain the same - only the platforms can rebuild confidence in themselves and at the moment they're not doing a very good job IMO. Bugs4me you're absolutely right that the platforms are at fault too, and that the way they have presented themselves has not been honest. Another thought that occurs to me about the valuations is that they directly feed into the tardiness in dealing with defaults. If the valuations were good, a defaulted loan could swiftly be dealt with by selling the asset. Since the valuations are way too high, the best course, generally is to try to get the borrower to repay, and to sell the asset as an absolute last resort. This is far from what I envisaged when I started out in P2P. I remember telling my kids that the money was pretty safe because it was all secured on property, at a maximum of 70% loan to value, and that if things went wrong, the property would be sold, and the money returned. That, after all, is what the platforms like Lendy said. The reality has turned out to be very different.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Feb 22, 2018 17:20:04 GMT
If the platform management is guilty (as I strongly suspect) influencing (and inflating 3x or 4x) the valuation as they deem necessary to get the deal in, then they only deserve the cash flow to be closed and starve for cash, not being able to fill most future loans. In the past I have recommended Lendy to friends and family. I am now reccommending everyone to stay away from them as they are absolutely unwilling/uncapable of keeping up with lenders' interests. Too much leeway towards borrowers, ther absurd requests, their impossible timelines. Lendy total lack of any control in 80% of the loans on this platform is genuinely worrying. Avoid them and take back all your money if you can! If it's any comfort, I suspect they're not always particularly accommodating towards borrowers either. I seem to recall a rather disgruntled developer called, funnily enough, developer on here who claims that Lendy advised him that "he was about to lose his shirt" p2pindependentforum.com/post/217256Do you think they sent him an email too? #CompaniesITrust
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