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Post by chessie on Aug 10, 2014 13:50:16 GMT
I have been investing since May 2014 and my portfolio value has grown from €100,000 {invested} to €105,000 However I am getting concerned that the value of my overdue loans has risen to over €15,500. So far I only have two loans that have gone into the 60 days+ section but this is probably due to the relatively young investments My portfolio has no loans that represent more than 0.5% of the portfolio and include Bondora +. Without investing in Bondora+ I would still not have been able to deploy all of my investment. What are other Bondora investors experiences and what percentage of overdue loans is the norm. Attachments:
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Post by batchoy on Aug 10, 2014 16:04:01 GMT
I'm guessing from your overdues that you're possibly not managing your investments once you have made them. Mine typically sit between 2% and 3% but I have developed a strict regimen with regards to disposing of loans which people aren't repaying.
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Post by chessie on Aug 10, 2014 18:01:18 GMT
Thanks for that. I have had some listed for sale for quite a while but they are not selling down. What discounts would you recommend and what other incentive would another lender have to buy loans that are not paying? What is your strategy for disposing of such loans?
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JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Aug 11, 2014 14:54:06 GMT
There have been so many changes since just before you started that I doubt that anyone knows how things are going to be in future. I would suggest reading previous forum topics here and on the Bondora forum where most of the changes have been discussed. The secondary market has been very different since up to 40% premiums were introduced, so there is little experience of how it is working now and I have decided to avoid it completely until it settles down and will hope for good default recovery. That is going to take time, probably about 2 years, as my earliest defaults from a year ago have not had any recovery yet, but are being sent to the bailiffs now.
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Post by batchoy on Aug 12, 2014 10:57:09 GMT
Thanks for that. I have had some listed for sale for quite a while but they are not selling down. What discounts would you recommend and what other incentive would another lender have to buy loans that are not paying? What is your strategy for disposing of such loans? I used to start the process of disposing of loans on the Saturday following the the day that they were flagged as late, I have now tightened up and do it on the day that they are first flagged. My experience is that if loans don't sell within the first 12 hours after listing they are unlikely to sell as listed so loans need to be withdrawn from the SM and be re-listed on a regular basis: typically when first listed I do it a par or with a small mark up if the return is over 30% but I never take the return for the buyer below 30%, I then have a weekly session whereby all may loans listed on the SM are withdrawn from sale and then re-listed this time either at par or with a mark down to bring the buyer's return to over 30% however I never mark down by more than 10% and if I can't give the buyer a positive return I don't bother attempting to sell the loan. For loans that have ceased to be overdue, I re-list them either at par or with a small mark up if the buyer's return is over 30%. As yet I haven't found the best day and time to list on the secondary market but this morning looks promising, of 15 newly listed lates 11 sold within the first hour, 5 were at par and 6 had a mark up of between 1% and 3%.
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Post by wiseclerk on Aug 12, 2014 15:55:08 GMT
I think listing between the 10th and 16th of a month gives a better than average chance of selling, as lenders got more than average cash sitting to be invested from recent repayments
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timbo
New Member
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Post by timbo on Aug 14, 2014 11:37:52 GMT
Just to share my experience to any would-be investors on Bondora:
I deposited €500 as a trial investment amount in June 2014. I invested €50 in each of 9 loans in Slovakian, Estonian and Finnish markets. Of these, the first two are already approaching 30 days overdue with the borrowers not even bothereing to make a partial payment on their first repayment date. Another 2 loans have paid their first payment on time. The remainder are not yet due for payment. Both the overdue loans are A1000 credit rated, as are the borrowers on 8 of the 9 investments I have made. The only exception to this is one A800 borrower, who is currently paying on time.
Although it is early days, this trial investment does not indicate further investment would be a good idea. The risk reward ratio for borrowers with the top credit rating available on Bondora appears to be very poor, in early stage of this test. Most loans of this credit rating should not be missing their very first repayment date. I have no current plans for further investment on this platform.
I'll keep you updated on how things progress from here, (assuming this post is not deleted)
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oldgrumpy
Member of DD Central
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Post by oldgrumpy on Aug 14, 2014 11:50:58 GMT
This all looks far too hairy for me!!  |
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Post by batchoy on Aug 14, 2014 11:52:27 GMT
Just to share my experience to any would-be investors on Bondora: I deposited €500 as a trial investment amount in June 2014. I invested €50 in each of 9 loans in Slovakian, Estonian and Finnish markets. Of these, the first two are already approaching 30 days overdue with the borrowers not even bothereing to make a partial payment on their first repayment date. Another 2 loans have paid their first payment on time. The remainder are not yet due for payment. Both the overdue loans are A1000 credit rated, as are the borrowers on 8 of the 9 investments I have made. The only exception to this is one A800 borrower, who is currently paying on time. Although it is early days, this trial investment does not indicate further investment would be a good idea. The risk reward ratio for borrowers with the top credit rating available on Bondora appears to be very poor, in early stage of this test. Most loans of this credit rating should not be missing their very first repayment date. I have no current plans for further investment on this platform. I'll keep you updated on how things progress from here, (assuming this post is not deleted) Are these B or B+ loans? Personally I have stopped investing more than €10-€20 in individual loans in order to get the diversification and units of €50+ can be difficult to dispose of on the SM. Given the risks involved in B and B+ loans your €500 would probably been better invested in 50 €10 shares rather than concentrating it in such a small number of loans particularly so if they are B+ loans.
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Post by wildlife2 on Aug 14, 2014 12:33:00 GMT
This all looks far too hairy for me!! Yes, I thought about Bondora, but it's on the wrong side of the sea for my liking.
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Post by reeknralf on Aug 15, 2014 19:10:33 GMT
I invested €50 in each of 9 loans in Slovakian, Estonian and Finnish markets........ I have no current plans for further investment on this platform. This is crazy. It's equivalent to tossing a coin 9 times and concluding it's fixed because you got 7 tails and 2 heads. You can't conclude anything from 9 loans over 2 months. I'm really impressed with the data and stats bondora supply. These give you a pretty fair ball park of the default rates to expect.
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duck
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Post by duck on Aug 16, 2014 6:56:46 GMT
This all looks far too hairy for me!! Well there is a sense at times of the Wild West on Bondora which reminds me of the days of listings on Zopa and it can be rather time consumptive if you want to maintain a decent return. (now with a non too subtle mixing of metaphors) The last year has seen a series of new goal posts being created and then implemented - usually with a couple of days notice - and each time a new strategy has to be formulated without knowing the implications of the changes. That said, currently far too many loans are going unfunded which in the long term cannot be good for Bondora or its investors so I understand why changes are coming quick and fast.
Personally I have (like bachoy) become more aggressive in the selling of 'lates' and have also cut my per loan investment, for example I have large numbers of B+ loans at 5 Euro whereas I was investing 50 Euros on the 28% Estonian A1000's about a year ago. Time will tell on this strategy but I'm not getting twitchy as yet.
On defaults, it will be interesting to see the long term rates of recovery as the platform grows. I currently have 26 loans 'with the bailiffs' (something personally I feel slightly uneasy about) and if recovery is made on only a proportion of these loans my overall return will be 'more than acceptable'.
............... right, off to check my 'lates'!
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Post by batchoy on Aug 16, 2014 12:56:32 GMT
That said, currently far too many loans are going unfunded which in the long term cannot be good for Bondora or its investors so I understand why changes are coming quick and fast. SNIP ............... right, off to check my 'lates'!
One of the things that I can not fathom is the sheer number of B+ loans going through (nearly 700 this morning) and what is the driver for the borrower to go for the B+ market given the high likelihood of the loan not filling and the significant hike interest. Did my lates first thing this morning - a complete relist of about 60 loans.
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JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Aug 16, 2014 13:11:12 GMT
I have lots of 10€ loans now as so much of the system seems to be rather a lottery since all the recent changes. The problem is that there are too many to keep track of, so I am going to stick with them to see how many defaulters pay in the end. I started about a year ago by buying 100 loans on resale with equal amounts per borrower, but now have over 1000 loan parts.
There is quite an avalanche of newsletters, many having to be corrected and giving forecasts which seem to be complete guesses about future performance of countries with no history recovery from defaulters yet.
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timbo
New Member
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Post by timbo on Aug 16, 2014 13:36:09 GMT
To respond to Batchoy's query about B or B+ loans - I have no idea what these are! If you mean "Are they secondary market loans?" the answer is "No". Can you help me to understand what is meant by B/B+? Your approach of spreading the risk across many loans naturally makes sense -although that was my intention when I started making loans of only €50 each! I had originally intended to follow up with much higher numbers of €50 investments, if this "pilot investment" made sense. But with the current status of only 2 of 5 payments which fell due, actually having been made, and these all being the very first payments due, it doesn't look so good from where I'm sitting. I'm assuming that adding more loans, even if they are in smaller amounts, would simply produce more late payments or defaults at a similar rate of about 3 in 5 loans from the very start. Or have I just been extremely unlucky? - I don't think this is statistically likely. I think what's far more likely is that the credit checks are not effective. I thought my stock market investments were a bit risky, but than this crowd-funding stuff is like throwing  dice in Las Vegas! |
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dice in Las Vegas!