james21
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Post by james21 on Mar 29, 2018 10:51:16 GMT
I have about 180 loans and 7 defaults. If I assume a 50% recovery from the defaults (some will be zero) I estimate my return will be in the region of 9 to 10%. What do you expect?
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Post by spareapennyor2 on Mar 29, 2018 15:29:07 GMT
233 loans /
17 defaults/unredeemed
69 overdue longest 566
8.98% return for year
- 7.3% defaults/unredeemed
=1.69 % after unredeemed
been holding back to see end of tax year / think it would be better on AC 30 day acc
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Mar 29, 2018 16:07:32 GMT
233 loans / 17 defaults/unredeemed 69 overdue longest 566 8.98% return for year - 7.3% defaults/unredeemed =1.69 % after unredeemed been holding back to see end of tax year / think it would be better on AC 30 day acc That assumes 100% loss on your default and unredeemed loans, which isn't realistic. You must also have accrued interest, unless you have massive cash drag. You need several years worth of data for defaults and late loans to complete before you know a loss rate and even a default rate. The best indications are the FS stats, that have years of data, yet are still too young to be meaningful.
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Post by spareapennyor2 on Mar 29, 2018 16:33:22 GMT
Liz yes worse case / stopped adding 6 months ago XIRR 8.23%
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zedi
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Post by zedi on Apr 1, 2018 16:59:39 GMT
Is there any public information about recovery results at FS? I can only find their statistics page but there I don´t get data on single defaults (e.g. how much of the capital was recovered on average). However, it would be interesting for assessing their valuation skills.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Apr 1, 2018 17:09:33 GMT
Is there any public information about recovery results at FS? I can only find their statistics page but there I don´t get data on single defaults (e.g. how much of the capital was recovered on average). However, it would be interesting for assessing their valuation skills. Every current and past FS loan can be viewed in the FS loan book, including sums repaid / recovered. The vast majority of the recorded losses to date stem from a single loan, the NI wind turbine fiasco. But there are many others, equally if not more smelly, that have not yet been admitted as resulting in major losses.
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zedi
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Post by zedi on Apr 1, 2018 18:36:48 GMT
Is there any public information about recovery results at FS? I can only find their statistics page but there I don´t get data on single defaults (e.g. how much of the capital was recovered on average). However, it would be interesting for assessing their valuation skills. Every current and past FS loan can be viewed in the FS loan book, including sums repaid / recovered. The vast majority of the recorded losses to date stem from a single loan, the NI wind turbine fiasco. But there are many others, equally if not more smelly, that have not yet been admitted as resulting in major losses. Thanks! Then I will take a closer look on the loanbook, just thought there might be some "condensed" information about that topic somewhere already.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Apr 1, 2018 18:46:50 GMT
Every current and past FS loan can be viewed in the FS loan book, including sums repaid / recovered. The vast majority of the recorded losses to date stem from a single loan, the NI wind turbine fiasco. But there are many others, equally if not more smelly, that have not yet been admitted as resulting in major losses. Thanks! Then I will take a closer look on the loanbook, just thought there might be some "condensed" information about that topic somewhere already. It's far too early to get meaningful figures. Give it 3 years! Then we might not have been through a recession or house market correction, so the figures will be skewed. And then last performance is no indication of future performance 😩
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Apr 1, 2018 18:47:33 GMT
Every current and past FS loan can be viewed in the FS loan book, including sums repaid / recovered. The vast majority of the recorded losses to date stem from a single loan, the NI wind turbine fiasco. But there are many others, equally if not more smelly, that have not yet been admitted as resulting in major losses. Thanks! Then I will take a closer look on the loanbook, just thought there might be some "condensed" information about that topic somewhere already. It's far too early to get meaningful figures. Give it 3 years! Then we might not have been through a recession or house market correction, so the figures will be skewed. And then past performance is no indication of future performance 😩 Hopefully I can outperform the average FS losses. No defaults yet thankfully and only 1 late more than a couple of months(Formby 1st charge)
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zedi
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Post by zedi on Apr 1, 2018 23:09:59 GMT
Thanks! Then I will take a closer look on the loanbook, just thought there might be some "condensed" information about that topic somewhere already. It's far too early to get meaningful figures. Give it 3 years! Then we might not have been through a recession or house market correction, so the figures will be skewed. And then last performance is no indication of future performance 😩 It still needs some time to estimate the return after defaults. But there should be enough data already for just checking whether the valuations are realistic and whether or not the recovery systems as a whole works.
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rzys
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Post by rzys on Apr 3, 2018 8:23:41 GMT
The FS stats page doesn't seem to be particularly helpful:
I can't tell how many of the late loans eventually become defaults.
For the defaulted loans, the biggest chunk of capital is "pending" and it's not clear how much of this is eventually "lost".
It would help if it went back more than the last 3 months.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Apr 3, 2018 8:35:22 GMT
The FS stats page doesn't seem to be particularly helpful: I can't tell how many of the late loans eventually become defaults. For the defaulted loans, the biggest chunk of capital is "pending" and it's not clear how much of this is eventually "lost". It would help if it went back more than the last 3 months. How does anyone know what % of late loans will default? My guess is 30% Again for capital pending, it's a big unknown. My guess is 50%, no idea really. What would be helpful is the % recovered on loans that have been through the recovery process. But not many(excluding bling) have. If you contact FS, they may use assumptions on what % will default, become late and recoveries, but they will no doubt use optimistic figures.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Apr 3, 2018 8:46:02 GMT
The FS stats page doesn't seem to be particularly helpful: I can't tell how many of the late loans eventually become defaults. For the defaulted loans, the biggest chunk of capital is "pending" and it's not clear how much of this is eventually "lost". It would help if it went back more than the last 3 months. How does anyone know what % of late loans will default? My guess is 30% Again for capital pending, it's a big unknown. My guess is 50%, no idea really. What would be helpful is the % recovered on loans that have been through the recovery process. But not many(excluding bling) have. If you contact FS, they may use assumptions on what % will default, become late and recoveries, but they will no doubt use optimistic figures. If you really want to, you can get data manually from the completed loan book. Although your loan book will likely perform totally different, mine is.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Apr 3, 2018 9:10:03 GMT
62 loans reapid on FS, no default yet. Received £1k interest for lending out £16k. Investment terms varied.
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Post by winger on Apr 3, 2018 10:14:18 GMT
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