cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 19, 2018 8:01:41 GMT
cb25 - the obvious answer is that loan size is irrelevant to allocation. The account invests based upon availability not loan size and there are many variables that affect that, from the amount people want to sell to the amount of competition for those available loan units. I'm not even sure why the size of the loan as a whole is of relevance? I don't care about the size of loan, what I care about is my maximum exposure to any single loan. The two loans I quoted were the ones where I had the highest/next highest exposure, and I wondered if loan size/availability were factors. My point is - let's say I had £0 in GBBA2 today and decided to invest £10,000 in 3 months time. I have absolutely no idea what my highest exposure (£) to a single loan might be (unlike Zopa: 1% or FC: 0.5%). I care about maximum exposure because if my account has (say) £55 in a loan and it gets into trouble, I'm not too worried regardless of how good AC's recovery procedures are. (AC's own figures suggest essentially zero payout from the PF and that doesn't fill me full of confidence). However, if - as is the case with #227 - my account has £5,500 in a loan and it gets into trouble (it has, 227 is in default), then I'm very worried as I have yet to see how good AC's recovery procedures are. Maybe 227 will turn out well (we both hope so), maybe it won't, but the higher my exposure to the loan the more of a problem I face.
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JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Apr 19, 2018 8:06:43 GMT
I am very new to the GBBA but it seems to me to be inevitable that a late tranche of a development loan with only a few months to repayment, will have little interest from manual investors, so the managed accounts will be used to provide funds to fill the loan for the borrower. Therefore the GBBA will always tend to be over weight in unpopular loans especially larger ones.
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Post by chris on Apr 19, 2018 9:31:12 GMT
I am very new to the GBBA but it seems to me to be inevitable that a late tranche of a development loan with only a few months to repayment, will have little interest from manual investors, so the managed accounts will be used to provide funds to fill the loan for the borrower. Therefore the GBBA will always tend to be over weight in unpopular loans especially larger ones. The investment accounts have some additional term based rules around them to prevent buy in into loans that will shortly redeem. There's also the question as to whether final tranches are more risky or less risky, which will be dependent on the loan. If the MLA investors are already invested enough in a given loan but the final tranche is less risky for that loan because the project is fundamentally complete with the majority of the value in a standing building etc. then is it bad for the GBBA to invest? Alternatively the rate may be too low for MLA lender's appetite, as they're trying to generate a higher income with more risk, but it's a good solid deal at a rate that fits the GBBA (or another account). Unpopular doesn't necessarily mean riskier or bad.
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Post by chris on Apr 19, 2018 9:34:07 GMT
cb25 - the obvious answer is that loan size is irrelevant to allocation. The account invests based upon availability not loan size and there are many variables that affect that, from the amount people want to sell to the amount of competition for those available loan units. I'm not even sure why the size of the loan as a whole is of relevance? I don't care about the size of loan, what I care about is my maximum exposure to any single loan. The two loans I quoted were the ones where I had the highest/next highest exposure, and I wondered if loan size/availability were factors. My point is - let's say I had £0 in GBBA2 today and decided to invest £10,000 in 3 months time. I have absolutely no idea what my highest exposure (£) to a single loan might be (unlike Zopa: 1% or FC: 0.5%). I care about maximum exposure because if my account has (say) £55 in a loan and it gets into trouble, I'm not too worried regardless of how good AC's recovery procedures are. (AC's own figures suggest essentially zero payout from the PF and that doesn't fill me full of confidence). However, if - as is the case with #227 - my account has £5,500 in a loan and it gets into trouble (it has, 227 is in default), then I'm very worried as I have yet to see how good AC's recovery procedures are. Maybe 227 will turn out well (we both hope so), maybe it won't, but the higher my exposure to the loan the more of a problem I face. Okay, so we're in agreement that it's your exposure in any given loan that's important. I've already set out why we cannot stick to something simple like 1% or 0.5% in each loan due to the length of time needed to deploy funds. We're moving towards that through post investment diversification but need a bit more scale to get there so that's going to take some time. If you want an alternative approach then we offer you the MLA so you can invest how you see fit and there'll be more tools coming over the coming months to help you invest in the way you want.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 19, 2018 9:38:32 GMT
I don't care about the size of loan, what I care about is my maximum exposure to any single loan. The two loans I quoted were the ones where I had the highest/next highest exposure, and I wondered if loan size/availability were factors. My point is - let's say I had £0 in GBBA2 today and decided to invest £10,000 in 3 months time. I have absolutely no idea what my highest exposure (£) to a single loan might be (unlike Zopa: 1% or FC: 0.5%). I care about maximum exposure because if my account has (say) £55 in a loan and it gets into trouble, I'm not too worried regardless of how good AC's recovery procedures are. (AC's own figures suggest essentially zero payout from the PF and that doesn't fill me full of confidence). However, if - as is the case with #227 - my account has £5,500 in a loan and it gets into trouble (it has, 227 is in default), then I'm very worried as I have yet to see how good AC's recovery procedures are. Maybe 227 will turn out well (we both hope so), maybe it won't, but the higher my exposure to the loan the more of a problem I face. Okay, so we're in agreement that it's your exposure in any given loan that's important. I've already set out why we cannot stick to something simple like 1% or 0.5% in each loan due to the length of time needed to deploy funds. We're moving towards that through post investment diversification but need a bit more scale to get there so that's going to take some time. If you want an alternative approach then we offer you the MLA so you can invest how you see fit and there'll be more tools coming over the coming months to help you invest in the way you want. If you do all that AND get loan 227 fixed, then I'll be happy (or at least happier)
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 19, 2018 9:40:31 GMT
I am very new to the GBBA but it seems to me to be inevitable that a late tranche of a development loan with only a few months to repayment, will have little interest from manual investors, so the managed accounts will be used to provide funds to fill the loan for the borrower. Therefore the GBBA will always tend to be over weight in unpopular loans especially larger ones. When I invest in the MLA, I have a maximum amount I'll invest in any one loan, so I won't invest any more in (say) a £2m loan than a £100K one. If many other MLA investors do the same, this means there will be a greater percentage of the bigger loans for the packaged accounts like GBBA2.
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Post by Ace on Apr 19, 2018 13:28:34 GMT
I don't care about the size of loan, what I care about is my maximum exposure to any single loan. The two loans I quoted were the ones where I had the highest/next highest exposure, and I wondered if loan size/availability were factors. My point is - let's say I had £0 in GBBA2 today and decided to invest £10,000 in 3 months time. I have absolutely no idea what my highest exposure (£) to a single loan might be (unlike Zopa: 1% or FC: 0.5%). I care about maximum exposure because if my account has (say) £55 in a loan and it gets into trouble, I'm not too worried regardless of how good AC's recovery procedures are. (AC's own figures suggest essentially zero payout from the PF and that doesn't fill me full of confidence). However, if - as is the case with #227 - my account has £5,500 in a loan and it gets into trouble (it has, 227 is in default), then I'm very worried as I have yet to see how good AC's recovery procedures are. Maybe 227 will turn out well (we both hope so), maybe it won't, but the higher my exposure to the loan the more of a problem I face. Okay, so we're in agreement that it's your exposure in any given loan that's important. I've already set out why we cannot stick to something simple like 1% or 0.5% in each loan due to the length of time needed to deploy funds. We're moving towards that through post investment diversification but need a bit more scale to get there so that's going to take some time. If you want an alternative approach then we offer you the MLA so you can invest how you see fit and there'll be more tools coming over the coming months to help you invest in the way you want. Chris, can we not have some half way house on this issue? The problem seems to be when first investing in (or adding large sums to) one of the managed accounts one can end up with a large percentage of their invested funds in one loan. If that loan goes bad before the diversification sausage machine algorithm reduces this overexposure then one is stuck with it. I for one am currently stuck with 11% of my PSA funds in 534. Surely a simple solution would be to have some limit on the percentage of a person's funds that can be allocated to a single loan, albeit at the disadvantage of not having all of ones funds immediately invested. I would be fairly happy to have that limit fairly high at say somewhere between 3 and 5%. Although not ideal, it would be much better than the, IMO ridiculous, thirty-odd percent that some have quoted. I obviously can't speak for others, but the potential cash drag would seem preferable to me than the overexposure. Ideally this maximum percentage would be user configurable, but I realize that's quite a bit more work, and might make these accounts too complicated for some. Sorry if this sounds like whinging, its intention is to be a constructive suggestion. I would like to congratulate you on your willingness to engage with users on this forum. It certainly does you and AC great credit. It always makes a bitter pill easier to swallow when one feels that they have been listened to, even if their suggestions are ultimately rejected. Regards Ace
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2018 10:25:06 GMT
Never a truer word, appears I was falling foul of minimum exchanges as I've only got a test amount deposited. Live chat were indeed useless and simply suggested they couldn't say when and if further exchanges would take place. Huge credit where it's due though as chris has taken the case personally and altered the algorithm so I am now seeing exchanges, albeit I need many many more yet to feel comfortable. Impressive given I am a very small fish to have the issue resolved so quickly. Here's to the arrival of the algorithm which helps with diversification at the deposit stage. chris It would appear my initial optimism may have been a touch misplaced. A very small initial flurry of exchanges flattered to deceive but in the week since exchanges began to successfully function #441 has dropped from 33% of holdings to 30% of holdings and I haven't seen a single exchange of any kind in the last 5days on the GBBA2. Given that it would need to be getting close to 5% to fall in line with my other loans for me to feel comfortable I'm seriously considering pulling out rather than adding funds as I'd hoped. The timescale to reach that point looks like it will just be too long, if ever! I have more on it's way across from the 30day access account, I will probably wait to see what affect it has before I make a final decision. Really hope I'm not just about to buy my way towards an even higher percentage of #441 when it transfers !!!
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Apr 25, 2018 11:04:12 GMT
I opened my IFISA 7 days ago and my PSA and GBBA2 investments are all at or below 5%, the largest being #441 which is at 5% in GBBA2, so the balancing is working fine on my IFISA accounts, although it has involved nearly 100 pages of transactions across the two accounts to get there.
On my standard accounts all investments are below 5% except #441 which is at 9.2% in GBBA2 and #414 which is at 7.3% in PSA.
I invested in the standard PF accounts some time ago and the totals are less than those in the IFISA PF accounts and so I am not sure if the differences are due to size or age of investment or a combination.
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Post by chris on Apr 25, 2018 12:01:47 GMT
Steerpike & jester - with larger sums and more loans available the system has more to work with and will, in general, do a better job. FC, for example, recommend you invest at least £2k to achieve a good level of diversification. If you invest £100 then they will invest you into just 5 loans. We've been making incremental changes and tweaks to the algorithms to try and make Steerpike 's more recent experience the one all lenders receive as long as they invest a few hundred pounds or more. There will be further updates in the coming weeks.
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Apr 25, 2018 12:27:00 GMT
My investments in standard PF accounts should be more than enough to allow loans to be balanced and although I am not overly concerned, to be frank, I am somewhat disappointed that the much trailed sparkly new GBBA2 et al algorithm still needs significant changes to make it work properly.
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Post by chris on Apr 25, 2018 12:52:43 GMT
My investments in standard PF accounts should be more than enough to allow loans to be balanced and although I am not overly concerned, to be frank, I am somewhat disappointed that the much trailed sparkly new GBBA2 et al algorithm still needs significant changes to make it work properly. There's two parts to this, as I've previously detailed. There's the algorithm that diversifies your existing holding, and there's the algorithm that invests new funds into loan parts. The first is more or less in place and has just received small tweaks to try and adjust the number of trades / exchanges it does to keep people's accounts balanced. If lenders give me specific examples over PM of where it isn't diversifying as much as it should then I will investigate and tweak the algorithm, with the trade off being more exchanges. The good performance in your ISA, where your worst holding is 5%, is because of recent tweaks to try and make that the worst diversification you'll get. However that necessarily slows down diversification for everyone currently over that limit, requiring new investments and funds to come into the account to continue to improve matters for them. The second part, the algorithm that invests new funds, is the part that is subject to major rewrite and was the update I was referring to.
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Post by brightspark on Apr 25, 2018 20:02:31 GMT
In 2007 the financial system was brought down when mortgages of sound borrowers were diced and sliced with mortgages to unsound borrowers to produce financial instruments that were then sold on in the financial markets. The UK (and USA) spent the previous 11 years clawing their way out of that hole. My perception is this Algorithm system seems to be doing something similar though smaller and more transparently.
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Post by chris on Apr 25, 2018 21:23:01 GMT
In 2007 the financial system was brought down when mortgages of sound borrowers were diced and sliced with mortgages to unsound borrowers to produce financial instruments that were then sold on in the financial markets. The UK (and USA) spent the previous 11 years clawing their way out of that hole. My perception is this Algorithm system seems to be doing something similar though smaller and more transparently. You what now?! Lenders ask for and want diversification within a pool of loans that matches the criteria they're happy investing in. The algorithm is only aimed at delivering that.
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bg
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Post by bg on Apr 25, 2018 21:34:23 GMT
In 2007 the financial system was brought down when mortgages of sound borrowers were diced and sliced with mortgages to unsound borrowers to produce financial instruments that were then sold on in the financial markets. The UK (and USA) spent the previous 11 years clawing their way out of that hole. My perception is this Algorithm system seems to be doing something similar though smaller and more transparently. Rubbish. That is not what happened at all.
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