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Post by stevefindlay on May 25, 2018 14:32:02 GMT
Wow - I'd expect a dedicated member of the DD Central forum to want to investigate further, rather than write a comment like that! So let's explore this, using only publicly available information: ADPOD: a £13-15M write-off so far - Sat with £15.4M of negative equity as at 31 March 2017: beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/09005743/filing-history- And a £13.8M impairment on Ratesetter as at 31 March 2017, with RS having made payments on Adpod loans from August 2016: beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/07075792 It is now a subsidiary, and Ratesetter has apparently injected further capital of £1.5M to prop it up. It is not clear if that is throwing good money after bad money. Time will tell. George Banco: accounts are less up to date. As at 31 Dec 2016 owed £31M - unclear what sort of recovery will come from this. Net liabilities of £3M. Vehicle Trading Group: beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/08395040/filing-history - See Administrators report: £1.5M still outstanding to RS. With just £2k collected from £5.9M of debtors. So possibly unlikely to get much more there(?). Its two subsidiaries were sold to Ratesetter Motor Ltd ( beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/10736638) which inherited £37M of debt (see 7.2 of Administrators update report). RML hasn't yet filed accounts - so unable to see consolidated performance of this new group. - Vehicle Credit Limited - one of its subsidiaries have accounts which are 5 months overdue: beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/07941730 That doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling though. If it was good news, I'd want to get it out asap. - Vehicle Stocking Limited - only has accounts made up until 31 Mach 2017 - before the restructuring: beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/07380405/filing-historySummary:ADPOD: £13-15M loss. George Banco: £3M exposure, potentially as high as £31M; unless it can trade its way out. VTG: £1.5M write off likely at parent company level; £37M exposure with an unknown outcome. Total: £17.5M-£19.5 already in the hole. Questions over a further £40M-68M. Either way, a potential £60M-90M (?) dodge for the PF.Of course, if you have better information, then I will be happy to revise my comments and analysis. Until then, this is a watching brief. ...confirmed that it was acquiring guarantor loans platform George Banco Limited for £53.5m. As part of the deal all George Banco loans will be refinanced by Non-Standard Finance Plc, and as a result RateSetter lenders will be repaid in full ahead of schedule. Fair enough re George Banco, and no potential for upside (reduced losses) from ADPOD. Just the £37M unknown re VTG. The realised loss will be in the range £17.5M - £66.5M. Which as per the time of the troubles, the losses will equate to: - 21%-83% of all interest paid out to clients of RS; - or 0.7x to 2.8x of RS total revenue for year ended March 2017 of £23.7M.
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jlend
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Post by jlend on May 25, 2018 14:36:32 GMT
...confirmed that it was acquiring guarantor loans platform George Banco Limited for £53.5m. As part of the deal all George Banco loans will be refinanced by Non-Standard Finance Plc, and as a result RateSetter lenders will be repaid in full ahead of schedule. Fair enough re George Banco, and no potential for upside (reduced losses) from ADPOD. Just the £37M unknown re VTG. The realised loss will be in the range £17.5M - £66.5M. Which as per the time of the troubles, the losses will equate to 21%-83% of all interest paid out to clients of RS. They say the vehicle loans are performing in line with expectations in the last bit i read in case that helps. As Vehicle loans are a key part of RSs overall loan book i have no reason to doubt this. Also this is what they said as part of the fee free sell out - These portfolios are expected to generate sufficient interest throughout their lifetime to repay these wholesale loans in full. Am not sure including the 37m makes sense unless i have missed something, they are just car loans secured with the underlying portfolio of loans with car buyers. The outstanding ad pod loan last year at the time of the fee free sell was 8.5m in the note to lenders that RS was standing behind.The current website says this loan is still being paid back. You have 13m to 15m in your summary which may be right, but RS lenders specifically only had an 8.5m loan outstanding last year. RS have booked an impairment charge covering the lifetime cost of the loan, but they may get some of this back in future loan repayments so the loss may be less and hence there is a potential upside. I could be mistaken but the only lender loan that RS was standing behind was the 8.5m adpod one reading the note to lenders on the fee free sell out option. I appreciate RS may have done other things outside this but that wasnt lender money or directly PF related unless i am mistaken. I do not doubt the figures you have extracted from the various companies house records but i am not sure they give a true picture of the exposure of RS lenders specifically at the time of the sell out. Hence i am not sure it makes sense to compare them to RS lender interest.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on May 25, 2018 20:04:17 GMT
I do find it a bit strange that Steve of BondMason wants to put RS to the fire, (although according to Steve they do not use them (because of possible future problems with the PF in the event of platform failure), but BondMason are not too concerned about Collateral which they do use and is in now in administration with lenders funds at serious current risk.
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Post by stevefindlay on May 28, 2018 16:12:58 GMT
I do find it a bit strange that Steve of BondMason wants to put RS to the fire, (although according to Steve they do not use them (because of possible future problems with the PF in the event of platform failure), but BondMason are not too concerned about Collateral which they do use and is in now in administration with lenders funds at serious current risk. From an investors (lenders) perspective, RS is a one-trick P2P pony (PF). You either like it or you don't. We currently don't, based on (knowable) performance vs returns.
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mary
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Post by mary on May 28, 2018 18:42:23 GMT
I do find it a bit strange that Steve of BondMason wants to put RS to the fire, (although according to Steve they do not use them (because of possible future problems with the PF in the event of platform failure), but BondMason are not too concerned about Collateral which they do use and is in now in administration with lenders funds at serious current risk. From an investors (lenders) perspective, RS is a one-trick P2P pony (PF). You either like it or you don't. We currently don't, based on (knowable) performance vs returns. RS has a track record that is well know, including the problems that they have owned up to and (unlike most platforms) taken full responsibility for and covered the losses. I don't see BM stepping up and covering the losses of their lenders to date who have lost money against the unknown platforms that BM has selected for them as best, inc COL - or are BM saying that they will cover any COL losses?
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Post by stevefindlay on May 28, 2018 20:01:52 GMT
From an investors (lenders) perspective, RS is a one-trick P2P pony (PF). You either like it or you don't. We currently don't, based on (knowable) performance vs returns. RS has a track record that is well know, including the problems that they have owned up to and (unlike most platforms) taken full responsibility for and covered the losses. I don't see BM stepping up and covering the losses of their lenders to date who have lost money against the unknown platforms that BM has selected for them as best, inc COL - or are BM saying that they will cover any COL losses? I think this must be a Forum first for me - agreeing with mary (almost). Yes - it was good that RS stepped in and covered their losses. However: (1) This was not contractual, and an action that couldn't have been known at the outset when originally lending / investing. And so, the end result doesn't validate the initial decision to invest - which otherwise would have been a bad one. (2) Did they have a choice? Had they not stepped in, there is a good chance that the returns would have been so poor that they would have lost most of their clients. As for the clients of BM, none of our clients have lost money after accounting for interest paid out to them, so stepping in to cover client losses isn't something that we've needed to consider.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on May 29, 2018 6:41:25 GMT
I'm not sure I reach the same conclusion on RS. ..... In short, if the PF fails, and your single borrower fails (which you have no visibility on and can't choose), then you can lose your entire investment. Regardless of what happens to everyone else. One of the reasons we don't use RS. Why would you have a single borrower on RS? I am much more diversified on RS than I am on BM. (I am losing more per default than I am happy with on BM, due to limitation of diversification.) Like RS I cannot choose and have no visibility of my borrowers on BM and in addition not even any visibility of the Platforms I am investing in. Both are 'black box' investments, but at least if BM are not using RS I know I am not duplicating borrowers.
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Post by stevefindlay on May 29, 2018 7:55:42 GMT
I'm not sure I reach the same conclusion on RS. ..... In short, if the PF fails, and your single borrower fails (which you have no visibility on and can't choose), then you can lose your entire investment. Regardless of what happens to everyone else. One of the reasons we don't use RS. Why would you have a single borrower on RS? I am much more diversified on RS than I am on BM. (I am losing more per default than I am happy with on BM, due to limitation of diversification.) Like RS I cannot choose and have no visibility of my borrowers on BM and in addition not even any visibility of the Platforms I am investing in. Both are 'black box' investments, but at least if BM are not using RS I know I am not duplicating borrowers. Single borrower on RS: unless you've chosen to drip-feed your fund deployment into RS, then you get a single borrower. I'm not sure that this is obvious prior to deployment. Diversified on BM: with BM you get to select 1% or 2% concentration setting; which means you get a minimum of 100 or 50 positions respectively. Visibility of borrowers: I'd be interested to see what borrower-level information you get on RS. With BM you don't get to see the borrower name (for data protection reasons amongst others, and well ahead of GDPR); but you do get a good feel of the nature of each underlying loan. Is this the same on RS? Business model: BM only operates on the investors-side of the table; sometimes negotiating better terms than any other lender, and accessing exclusive loans. RS have an inherent conflict of interests as they operate on both the investor and lender sides of the table. These subtle distinctions in our models are very important form an alignment-of-interests perspective - which is fundamental for successful investing.
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jlend
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Post by jlend on May 29, 2018 8:11:21 GMT
Yes - it was good that RS stepped in and covered their losses. However: (1) This was not contractual, and an action that couldn't have been known at the outset when originally lending / investing. And so, the end result doesn't validate the initial decision to invest - which otherwise would have been a bad one. (2) Did they have a choice? Had they not stepped in, there is a good chance that the returns would have been so poor that they would have lost most of their clients. As for the clients of BM, none of our clients have lost money after accounting for interest paid out to them, so stepping in to cover client losses isn't something that we've needed to consider. A few personal thoughts. 1. Contractual Issue? I think there was a danger that it would turn out to be a contractual issue as the fca made it clear that wholesale lending was outside the p2p rules and was turning some p2p platforms into something else before the issues with these loans became public. I think Ratsetter knew this in their conversations with the fca even before the issues got as big as they did with adpod. Also RS also admitted they broke their own rules in at least some of the loans in question and their financial controls didnt work. There was a contractual risk to RS in not covering the loans which they hinted at in all their correspondence. How big this risk was we will never know, nor the potential impact. 2. Did they have a choice? At the end of the day, i assume most large platforms will want to IPO or something similar to realise a gain for their founders, employers and investors. All large platforms will do what they can to make this happen within the resources they have available if they think it is worth while. In fact all companies will do what they can when confronted with issues. I think in the long run they were sure it was money well spent as would many companies. There may also have been some pressure, real or otherwise, from the FCA in the various conversations they had. I think it will be difficult to know what would have happened if they had taken a different route, e.g. propped up the PF to try and ride out the issues. I dont think they would have taken a route that would have meant an immediate cut for lenders. For example, the George Banco loans have turned out to be very profitable and the loan book is growing. Non-Standard Finance bought the guarantor loan provider last August. The London-listed firm said that the acquisition has “transformed” its guarantor loans business, helping that division’s loan book to grow by 35 per cent. It said the acquisition contributed to the group’s overall operating profit rising 497 per cent to £2.7m in its latest annual results. They are now the second largest guarantor loan provider in the UK. So keeping the loan book looks like it would have been better for RS over the last year if they had been able to do it. The cars we are told are performing in line with expectations. I think ADPOD was always the bigger issue. How much of that loan RS get back only time will tell but it feels like some of it will remain written off longer term now that they have written off the lifetime amount in their accounts. As you say no BM clients have lost money after accounting for interest paid so far. It will always be difficult for BM compare themselves with the likes of RS where no investor has ever lost any capital or interest to date. For both platforms past performance is no guarantee of the future. RS have underwritten the ADPOD loan. I am guessing that BM even if they wished to would struggle to do something similar for the COL loans if it turns out there are problems with them or any other loans, although i have nothing to doubt the statements BM have made about their very high level of confidence in the COL loans. There will always be a concern about RS processes after the issues last year, in the same way there will always be concerns about BM processes after the COL issues. Hopefully both platforms will be successful long term...
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