adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 15, 2018 9:05:33 GMT
100% agree - this is going to be a belter - am currently adding this one to the league... I suspect the American owner does not yet understand the UK planning and relevant residential laws for these things - his plan may have been OK for the USA (although I doubt it) but he sure going to come a cropper in the UK!
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Post by charliebrown on Jul 15, 2018 17:14:43 GMT
My bets on the largest value losses to be: V*ney Br*dge M*ll Development land in Suffolk Lytham St Annes All these have lower ranking facilities; so while the first charges could take a little trim, the lower charges will be wiped out 100%. Why do people suspect Development Land in Suffolk will default? The updates claim it’s been sold. Do you think the update is a fabrication? It wouldn’t be a first in p2p for updates stating done deals that never materialise, but do you know something that make you suspect it will default and will not realise it’s valuation?
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 15, 2018 17:41:30 GMT
I have just been looking at this one for the FA league status - complete and utter disaster in my opinion as crazy as investing to build an artificial desert in the Antartic.
This main director has a very interesting history and that is being charitable.
This site is not sold but we have been told
We have heard all this before and the above means absolutely nothing. No funding company is going to even engage in meaninful discussion until the land is valued! This land is ex-industrial and seems to comtaminated. The land seemed to have been valued at 40% above peak and is based on the assumption there are no restrictions nor contamination. I don't know but I think £1000 per acre is generous (just my unqualified opinion) so it's Goodnight Vienna for me and a mega mega 90% loss is on the cards...
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debaura
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Post by debaura on Jul 15, 2018 20:22:47 GMT
My bets on the largest value losses to be: V*ney Br*dge M*ll Development land in Suffolk Lytham St Annes All these have lower ranking facilities; so while the first charges could take a little trim, the lower charges will be wiped out 100%. I thought all Lytham St Annes ranked equally...
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jul 15, 2018 20:58:49 GMT
My bets on the largest value losses to be: V*ney Br*dge M*ll Development land in Suffolk Lytham St Annes All these have lower ranking facilities; so while the first charges could take a little trim, the lower charges will be wiped out 100%. I thought all Lytham St Annes ranked equally... Nope. e.g.5th facility (1945673433) "This facility is for £400k and ranks behind prior facilities of £1,000k, £850k, £500k and £500k" There are multiple tranches in that facility though, those would rank equally to each other. Equally badly, IMV.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 16, 2018 6:03:43 GMT
correct - I find all these various facilities, renewals, additional loans and additional loan renewals all very confusing and I wonder why on earth FS do this unless of course they are trying to disguise the total exposure. I am currently going through this one for the FA league and it looks a complete mega disaster to me - as to the £400K I expect a total loss. Excepting very low LTVs I just don't understand why anybody would invest in a lower ranking loan - as for 14% as opposed to 13% it is a joke. Initial impression is that we are looking at well over a £2m loss
you what! We have heard this before - so what charge have FS (we lenders!) have on this other land - answers on a a digital postcard. This chap has not even got final planning permission and (as I see it) no way of realising money from this site so what do FS do - lend him even more money - please tell me I am wrong but this chap seems to already be over £2.2m ovedue and constantly increasing on a monthly basis... if we take £3m being overdue whilst he waits for planning and no money is forthcoming within a year than that is £600K (at 20%) in interest charges alone. I wonder if this developer is hopelessly optimistic or very sharp - I suspect the latter ...shades of Whitehaven syndrome?
Gordon Bennett - this could be top of the FA Premier League - how on earth can FS potentially lose such vast amounts of money - granted it is hard (for people like me anyway) to make money in this game but to lose 100% as in Wimbledon takes a rare talent!
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Post by charliebrown on Jul 16, 2018 11:36:58 GMT
I have just been looking at this one for the FA league status - complete and utter disaster in my opinion as crazy as investing to build an artificial desert in the Antartic. This main director has a very interesting history and that is being charitable. This site is not sold but we have been told We have heard all this before and the above means absolutely nothing. No funding company is going to even engage in meaninful discussion until the land is valued! This land is ex-industrial and seems to comtaminated. The land seemed to have been valued at 40% above peak and is based on the assumption there are no restrictions nor contamination. I don't know but I think £1000 per acre is generous (just my unqualified opinion) so it's Goodnight Vienna for me and a mega mega 90% loss is on the cards... I can relate to being told the asset is sold only for some “unforeseen” issue to drag it on for another 6 months and default. Lendy are the kings of this modus operandi and I suspect FS are no better. The thing that’s puzzling me is that the loan is for 1.3m secured by a first charge against an asset worth 3.5m giving an LTV of approx 36%. Is the valuation incorrect? It probably is as they always are. However, to suggest a 90% loss means the entire site would sell for just 130k after fees. Has an asset valued at 3.5m ever been so misjudged that it sold for 130k? Also, is there any truth in the statement “the owners have spent 20m on the site”. What did they spend 20m on and why is the site still valued at 3.5m (or 130k if you agree with that valuation) when 20m has been spent. I’ve got some of my hard earned in this so quite nervous that it’s been touted as a 90% loss. I was suckered in by the Low LTV and the 20m spent, I never actually believed a snow village was a good idea.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 16, 2018 12:10:16 GMT
Don't wish to worry you - but several of us are really worried by this one. Whitehaven is going to auction in a couple of days with a guide price of £40K against a loan of £530K so after expenses a 90% loss is quite possible although I did estimate it would sell for £80K. I am in this business and I frequently see complete disasters due to either dodgy developers and/or amateur investors. I regard FS as completely incompetent in such loans - I may be wrong but I think the current defaults speak for themselves - how on earth did they lose 69% on the wind turbine - modern art is one thing but surely it should be easy to properly value a wind turbine...
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Post by charliebrown on Jul 16, 2018 13:45:49 GMT
Don't wish to worry you - but several of us are really worried by this one. Whitehaven is going to auction in a couple of days with a guide price of £40K against a loan of £530K so after expenses a 90% loss is quite possible although I did estimate it would sell for £80K. I am in this business and I frequently see complete disasters due to either dodgy developers and/or amateur investors. I regard FS as completely incompetent in such loans - I may be wrong but I think the current defaults speak for themselves - how on earth did they lose 69% on the wind turbine - modern art is one thing but surely it should be easy to properly value a wind turbine... I appreciate you sharing your concerns with the group. I agree that FS is totally incompetent, I am in Whitehaven, but I’ve got more in Suffolk. I still can fathom how the borrower has spent 20m on the site yet added no value to the site. If he’s really spent 20m on something that sells for 130k then he’s even better at making money disappear than FS. Of course, if he hasn’t really spent 20m and we’ve been lied to then this is deception just like Whitehaven was deception. This game isn’t investing at all, it’s russian roulette.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jul 16, 2018 13:52:36 GMT
No it's not Russian roulette. In Russian roulette there is only one bullet.
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coop
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Post by coop on Jul 16, 2018 14:17:46 GMT
First post here again in a little while so hello everybody I got "out" of P2P due to severe lack of wealthiness a while back so I'm just left with a couple stinkers I couldn't get rid of. Here's one I expect may make your rankings at some point: Gr**nw*ch property - Lent £805,000 against a made up valuation of £1.2m if he ever got planning permission (to date hasn't). At some point property became fire damaged (how???) - and every report under the sun is taking longer than usual and the insurers are still yet to pay out. Even when they do insurance is due to be c. £760k and with interest borrowers are now owed over £1m - This could hit league 2 but if that insurance never pays out and finds the borrow to have been somewhat naughty it could be a whole lot worse.... I'm looking to dip my toes back in P2P again soon but I won't be returning to FS considering the amount of poor quality loans and infrequency of updates on said loans...
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 16, 2018 16:17:21 GMT
thanks - will see about adding it to the FA league - interesting one this one - we think it was with another P2P lender and we were worried then as somebody who knows the area said it was very dodgy and seems to have been proven correct, I would guess this original P2P lender refused to take it along so along came that nice Funding "loadsa money is not a problem" Secure...
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 16, 2018 16:34:40 GMT
update - had another quick look- to be honest if the lender takes the insurance money and flips the plot I don't think it is looking too bad but if he borrows more money and hits problems then I share your concern
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coop
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Post by coop on Jul 16, 2018 17:24:02 GMT
update - had another quick look- to be honest if the lender takes the insurance money and flips the plot I don't think it is looking too bad but if he borrows more money and hits problems then I share your concern yeah i have no idea why i bought this!! In my defence i never planned to hold to term and was then snookered by my own inactivity. Only £100 in it so i could stomach losing it - though it still hurts! I agree it might be alright if insurance pays out and the plot sells. My main concerns: 1) insurance taking so long to pay out - is this because the suspect foul play. 2) i looked at the planning app and looks like its been previously refused? this hasnt been mentioned by FS! If its refused again could this seriously impact the price of the plot if its percieved to be difficult to get planning permission for something profitable?
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 16, 2018 18:08:04 GMT
it is directy on a T junction so this may be a problem for 4 flats with the council preferring a single dwelling ? I am guessing here so appreciate a second opinion
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