empirica
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Post by empirica on Jul 22, 2018 21:08:41 GMT
Don't want to rain on anyone's parade, but it is unique views which count. Many will be from existing readers re-visiting, especially when you place links on another post / thread taking those existing readers back there. (I've just bumped it over 1900 for you ) (Would be worthwhile knowing how many of those views were by FS though )
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 22, 2018 21:26:35 GMT
true but I think the fact it has been read so often shows the forum readers are interested in it...I doubt if FS have read it!
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mjc
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Post by mjc on Jul 23, 2018 5:45:58 GMT
I plan to do this and collate all the entries once I get to 20 or so but at the moment I am very busy and there are just so many problematic loans at the moment. I am also currently looking to put a spreadsheet on google drive. Whitehaven seems to be even worse than feared so goodness knows what will happen with Suffolk, V*** B**, cinema etc I am not renewing anything. Hardly ever invest, withdrawing as fast as I can. I breathe a sigh of relief every time a loan repays, not an occasional sigh when one doesn’t repay. It shouldn’t be like that. but to FS’s credit, transferring a part out of an ISA, was immediate - same day! Thanks for that FS.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 28, 2018 9:35:08 GMT
here is my latest weekly update - I can't believe how many loans I have to trawl through. 13) Mixed Use Property, Liverpool loan total £625K This one is over 16 months late and clearly in trouble As it seems to consist of 3 freehold titles which have not been inspected then I have no idea what it is worth! I am guessing the recovery will be around £0.5m Thus I have this one as a very generous League 2 i.e. over 25% loss but it could make the Premiership. 14) East Ham Property loan £77K (second charge) complete and utter disaster easily a loss of over 75% - Premiership (could be a 100% loss?) 15) Land Lytham St Annes - very confusing ! I think we have a first charge on £2.85m and a second charge on £500K. Considering Final Planning Permission is not even granted yet all I can say is Gordon Bennett and I expect this to be another FS mega disaster. I note there are already discounted loans on the SM. It looks to me as if this chap is late with a modest £2.45m loan total outstanding - well how on earth is he going to repay that anytime soon! FS have lent this chap money to repay interest on a non income generating asset that, in my opinion, is grossly overvalued...nasty! £2.45M at 20% is over £40K per month in interest. Do I think this 1.3 acres site is going to sell for over £3m - in a word "no"! I would guess about 50% of this. If I am correct then £2.85M is going to take a haircut (a right skinhead) so say a very generous League 2 and the £500K will be a Premier League loss at 100% I have added this to my original post p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12971/fa-league-predicted-mega-failures
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kielbasa
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Post by kielbasa on Jul 28, 2018 17:52:36 GMT
What league would you put Development Plot, Liverpool in?
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 28, 2018 20:35:46 GMT
I have a nibble in this one (I am an idiot) and am looking into it
I note the address is Toxeth which will ring a bell for older forum users... granted areas change quicker than perception
However the below worries me
believe that when I see it.
This site is only 0.11 acres so at the FS valuation of £1m that is £9m per acre for building land in Toxeth and I am not convinced the planning permission is finalised! As a small developer I have given up dealing with the useless PC mind police local councils as too much hassle if nothing else! This one is 8 months late so no idea how the borrower is going to repay this...I will post this one is next week's update but it is not looking good to me and have the first charge at least a League 1 i.e. over 50% loss and the second charge as a 100% loss viz {remier League. As per all my predicitions this is just my personal opinion and although an experienced dealer/developer I run small and not multi-million Pound projects so no expert in such highly speculative loans. I assess my tradesmen and am simply assessing myself here against how I think FS loans will perform before I invest any more money - I vastly underestimated the Whitehaven loss and plead guilty to that!
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 29, 2018 17:10:48 GMT
have updated the front page...
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Aug 4, 2018 15:01:08 GMT
I have updated my orginal thread FA league of predicted mega failures p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12971/fa-league-predicted-mega-failures?page=3&scrollTo=281034as below update 04.08.18 had a very busy week so only a short update this week but I still have plenty to go on! 16) VIP - this one has exactly zero security so well done Funding Secure this person has been borrowing money since March 2016 so not looking very good for the advertising contract is it! impossible to say but this can't go on forever so I have this one down as a very generous league 1 i.e. over £45K i.e. 50% loss - it may come good but I can't see it 17) artwork : Chagall, Picasso, Impressionists, Lowry, Auerbach, Vases, Artwork it is not clear to me just how loans this person has so I have lumped what I think it is and get £2.35m lent - small change and not really worth doing a full legal check as to ownership! Granted this may be a very rich person but the very rich people I know don't pawn their items at 20%+! Considering the very poor and incomplete information FS have given us impossible to say what I think is likely to be recovered. Could be 100% or could be 0% if these weren't his or her items to pawn! Goodness knows what the legal fees will be for this one. Also I have worked in the up-market art world and seen some unexpected art works soar in price and other more famous ones crash...on balance and assuming these items sell at auction I am going to give this one a very generous £1m loss i.e. league 1 18) Rishton loan of £610K - this one is now 890 days late! IMHO the valuation regarding the land and reduced building costs is a joke and no I don't expect FS to realise £1m per acre for a building plot in Lancashire If this valuation is accurate then why does the lender need to go to a Dubai based funder who could not even get the funds transferred despite his solicitor having the money. As confirmed by people who know Dubai this is total horlicks unless is was sent by camel who took refugee status in Israel... worried I should cocoa! Just look what the Whitehaven plot went for or rather didn't go - too busy to do detailed reasearch but will be surprised if FS realise £400K after expenses so a £210K loss and a very generous League 1 more belters next week - as always please say if you want any added or don't agree with my valuations. I am not criticising FS but simply validating how I think their loan book is performing against my predictions. That said if I am anywhere near correct it is sure going to be one almighty haircut for we investors! ---end update 24.08.18 original thread p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12971/fa-league-predicted-mega-failuresI thank you
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Aug 4, 2018 15:08:12 GMT
have updated the front page...
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paulb
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Post by paulb on Aug 6, 2018 9:01:37 GMT
17) artwork : Chagall, Picasso, Impressionists, Lowry, Auerbach, Vases, Artwork it is not clear to me just how loans this person has so I have lumped what I think it is and get £2.35m lent My guess would that these are the "Various Artwork" loans mentioned in the June FS newsletter totalling £2.3M, so I think you're right. Of course, these were listed under the "repayment expected" section of the newsletter, which appears overly-optimistic.
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orvilorvil
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Post by orvilorvil on Aug 8, 2018 19:46:26 GMT
I had no idea things were this bad at FS - thanks for the post and information.
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aligibbs
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Post by aligibbs on Aug 8, 2018 20:03:02 GMT
have updated the front page... Thanks for this
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Aug 11, 2018 12:51:37 GMT
Bit busy at the moment as I have a development deadline to meet (hello FS!) But here is a quick update of my predicted mega failures 19) Norfolk Farmhouse with land - is this one confusing or what however second charge of £50K - my superficial research indicates by the time the first charge holder has had his interest and fees etc there is unlikely to be anything left over so Premier League and could well be a 100% loss 20) Related : 6 bed house in Norfolk £350K - think a small haircut here (unless refinancing comes about) so a predicted £50K loss viz a generous League 3 loss at 15% 21) Development plot Liverpool - total loan £0.7m (I think) this one looks to me to have gone completely pear-shaped. I think no building has even started yet and refinancing fallen through so how on earth is this one going to be repaid especially as it was due 22.11.17
This has a first charge of £600K and a second charge of £100K
I am giving the first charge a very generous 50% loss viz £300K i.e. League 1 but may well be Premier League. As to the second charge a belter of a Premier League which looks like another 100% loss to me (said that before!)that's it for this week - I am very worried by a lot of the recent loan issues but will come back to them only when they are late As always please say if you don't agree or if I have missed one you want including Have added this to my orginal post p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12971/fa-league-predicted-mega-failures
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Aug 11, 2018 12:56:05 GMT
have updated the front page
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kielbasa
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Post by kielbasa on Aug 11, 2018 14:53:21 GMT
21) Development plot Liverpool - total loan £1.045m (I think) this one looks to me to have gone completely pear-shaped. I think no building has even started yet and refinancing fallen through so how on earth is this one going to be repaid especially as it was due 22.11.17 I am giving this one a very generous 50% loss i.e. League 1 but may well be Premier League.From the latest update: "We are in discussions with the development finance company with a view to taking a partial repayment in exchange for a second charge." That sounds very worrying to me. I wonder what sort of partial repayment they are discussing. I would rather take my chances with a first charge than take some money and be pushed back to a second charge. FS also have a £100k "additional borrowing" loan which ranks behind the main loan. Whose interests should FS prioritise: the main loan lenders or all lenders? Whatever is being "discussed", the main loan lenders should be given a vote on any proposal? Unlikely to happen though, is it?
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