adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Aug 18, 2018 12:20:27 GMT
I have updated the first page
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Sept 2, 2018 15:24:12 GMT
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Sept 14, 2018 18:08:27 GMT
Just done a very quick update to my FA league of predicted mega failures. 26) Spilsby - think FS have been a bit unlucky here but it did not sell at auction for a lot less that the valuation. I don't think this one will be too bad so giving it a 20% loss i.e. League 3 The cinema has fully repaid - I was surprised but a good result is a good result For first page of original post please see p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12971/fa-league-predicted-mega-failures
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Oct 14, 2018 16:55:47 GMT
Currently very busy as I have a building deadline to meet so here is a very quick update 27) *est *erby Road Liverpool This one seems very ambitous to me and the loan looks about the same as the land value. If this one is flipped as per the snow dome then happy days but if not then I am predicting a generous 10% loss viz league 3. As I understand it planning has not yet been approved and I just don't buy the predicted building costs and that is assuming there is no problem with the land survey which has not yet been done! I also note Neath realised a loss - prime loan had a 35% capital loss but secondary loan had a 100% loss. for first page of original post please see p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12971/fa-league-predicted-mega-failures
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locutus
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Post by locutus on Oct 14, 2018 16:57:13 GMT
I also note Neath realised a loss - prime loan had a 65% capital loss but secondary loan had a 100% loss. 65% capital recovery...
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Oct 21, 2018 20:32:00 GMT
Still very busy but should meet my building deadline next week - I will be about 2 weeks late which I am really not happy about although I did injure my knee which put me out of action - bit better than Rishton etc which are over 2 years late! However latest addition is 28) B******d Rd, Wirral 3222209939. I am concerned this one has run out of money before completion and believe me this is not good news for a developer (tell me about it) and with Brexit comng up I expect the UK market to ,at least, stall for a few months whilst we wait to see what actually happens. I find the FS information on this one very confusing but I think we have £374K - prime loan of should just about be OK ? £100K - second facility of £100,000 - 50% loss i.e. league 2 £104K - supplementary facility of £104K - as above The next time I go to a building site and see unfinished houses which has resulted in an offer of 50% of the expected asking price won't be the first.... Also I note the French clocks which I predicted would be problematic are being renewed so will keep an eye on that one - and if I am wrong I will say so. This one is getting renewed much quicker than the powerboat! I intend to catch up with my other predictions late next week so the sleepers etc as well as my fans can look forward to that. for first page of original post please see p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12971/fa-league-predicted-mega-failures
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arby
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Post by arby on Oct 22, 2018 7:20:10 GMT
£374K - prime loan of should just about be OK ? £100K - second facility of £100,000 - 50% loss i.e. league 2 £104K - supplementary facility of £104K - as above I'm confused by this: Can you tell me your thoughts on where the first supplemental loan fits in: loan ID: 3013580830 I believe it sits between the 1st and 2nd facility, but it seems this has been overlooked in the text/amounts on subsequent loans?
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bg
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Post by bg on Oct 22, 2018 10:14:42 GMT
I don't really want to upset any of your 'fans' but can you explain how it is possible to lose only 50% on the third charge loan but also make a loss on the 2nd charge?
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arby
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Post by arby on Oct 22, 2018 10:17:57 GMT
I don't really want to upset any of your 'fans' but can you explain how it is possible to lose only 50% on the third charge loan but also make a loss on the 2nd charge? Why would anyone be upset? I was wondering the same, but I wanted to first see if I was the only person confused about the first supplemental loan, as that makes 4 effective charges, not 3.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Oct 22, 2018 10:18:12 GMT
it isn't ! Sorry if I have misread the info but I thought the latter 2 charges ranked equally - will re-read when I get time and if I am wrong then will correct the above. If the last charge is a third charge then I am glad I don't hold it!
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Oct 22, 2018 11:18:46 GMT
confusing or what!
I think the above is correct (I was wrong) insofar as the £104K is in effect a third charge but all loans seem to offer 13%? I haven't the time to work out what is happening here. Maybe a sleeper could ask FS to clarify...
I read I may be wrong but I don't buy this for 2 reasons 1) GDV valuation seems extremely high 2) in my experience the worst thing a developer can do is sell an unfinished house as ,if lucky, you will only get 50% of the building expenses to date - most people don't want an unfinished house and a lot of developers won't touch them do to insurance issues etc
If the latest photos are a current represenation of this plot then there is sill a huge amount to do and I just can't see how this is going to be funded...
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mullet
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Post by mullet on Oct 22, 2018 12:21:45 GMT
£374K - prime loan of should just about be OK ? £100K - second facility of £100,000 - 50% loss i.e. league 2 £104K - supplementary facility of £104K - as above Question is over what time period are you assuming this will be settled? Don't forget the interest on the primary is building up at a rate of ~50k/year ....but the time this is sorted I suspect that would have totally wiped out any secondary/supplemental loans
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sqh
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Post by sqh on Oct 22, 2018 12:40:23 GMT
adrian77 The big confusion is that there are 2 loans with the same name "Supplemental" My understanding is that the senior loan is for £374k made up of 6 tranches. There is Supplemental loan of 34k which ranks second. There is a Second Facility of 100k that ranks third, made up of 2 tranches. There is a another Supplemental loan of 70k. which ranks fourth, made up of 2 tranches. EDIT: I don't see any losses here, because the building appears well constructed although still not finished. Also, I don't think the borrower wants to lose the 2nd charge property(their home or BTL property).
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arby
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Post by arby on Oct 22, 2018 13:05:13 GMT
adrian77 The big confusion is that there are 2 loans with the same name "Supplemental" My understanding is that the senior loan is for £374k made up of 6 tranches. There is Supplemental loan of 34k which ranks second. There is a Second Facility of 100k that ranks third, made up of 2 tranches. There is a another Supplemental loan of 70k. which ranks fourth, made up of 2 tranches. EDIT: I don't see any losses here, because the building appears well constructed although still not finished. Also, I don't think the borrower wants to lose the 2nd charge property(their home or BTL property). Agree on their own use property. I raised the point on the first supplemental loan as it states it ranks ahead of the 2nd facility. But in the later description of the 2nd facility it says it only ranks behind the 1st facility, with the pound amounts quoted matching that.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Oct 22, 2018 17:00:54 GMT
thanks for the above - well a 4th ranking charge is a new one on me!
How on earth can lending against property be so complicated.
Done a bit more research on the second charge property - there is no garage. Also this one was for sale on rightmove in 2016 so I wonder what that tells us? Plus ,as mentioned in the VR, this one is tenanted which to me rings alarm bells. Granted this may be providing a modest rental income which hopefully covers the mortgage but what happens if there are problem tenants.
I wonder if cash-flow is going to be a major problem here
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