blender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,719
Likes: 4,272
|
Post by blender on Jul 18, 2018 15:45:21 GMT
I have some questions on the basis of the 'Interest Payable' amounts mentioned in the 3 year financial projections. The 3 year financial projections state 'Interest Payable' of £38.4K, £57.6K and £57.6K for years ending Mar 19, Mar 20 & Mar 21 respectively. 1. What are the assumptions as regard the amount of loans outstanding towards which this interest is expected to be paid? On the basis of a £1 million loan being funded via Ablrate and an overall expense of 20% p.a. in servicing this loan, the above amounts for 'Interest Payable' do appear to be under budgeted - and so ostensibly the Net Profit overstated. (The loan terms in the 'Borrowing proposal' states that the borrower is paying 13% p.a. to lenders and 0.583% per month i.e. 7% p.a. 'Service fee' to ablrate so overall the borrower is paying 20% p.a. towards servicing the loan. Plus an Admin fee of 3.2% - presumably one off, initially?) 2. Is the Ablrate 'Service Fee' included in the 'Interest Payable' amounts mentioned? 3. I understand that the Ablrate loan is amortising, so expect the interest payable to decline over the years (assuming no additional loans are raised elsewhere) so why is the 'Interest Payable' amount for Mar 21 (£57.6K) the same as Mar 20? Are other loans to be raised elsewhere assumed in these Financial projections? If so, details (Interest rates, seniority etc.) of these other loans would be helpful. Had to delete my previous. If we read for 'loan interest' 'loan repayments', then it does cover an amortising loan with 8 months in the first year. However, I calculate the repayments at 20% (including Ablrate's monthly fee) over 4 years for £250k principal at 61K in the first year and 92k subsequently - about double. The 1M has multiple uses. The more borrowers lend, the longer I can safely hold my part!
|
|
ptr120
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,197
Likes: 1,346
|
Post by ptr120 on Jul 18, 2018 15:45:38 GMT
ablrate I'd also like to know the value of the PG - I assume not very much given the disclosure? Regarding the Funding Circle loan, has this always been serviced on time and kept up to date? How long does it have left to run, and does the borrower intend to pay it off early. I'd also like to know how much is outstanding on that loan but I understand that might not be possible to disclose.
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,192
Likes: 6,000
|
Post by registerme on Jul 18, 2018 15:57:54 GMT
This feels to me more like an equity punt though it's not as bad as the "crazy boat" proposal in that there seems to be a market, a product and customers, ie an actual functioning business. That having been said I have no idea what the security is worth. Unless we get more detail from ablrate I think I'll be sitting this one out. Which is a shame, because in many respects it seems like a worthwhile venture. Still, good luck to all who choose to take part .
|
|
|
Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Jul 18, 2018 16:32:08 GMT
This feels to me more like an equity punt though it's not as bad as the "crazy boat" proposal in that there seems to be a market, a product and customers, ie an actual functioning business. That having been said I have no idea what the security is worth. Unless we get more detail from ablrate I think I'll be sitting this one out. Which is a shame, because in many respects it seems like a worthwhile venture. Still, good luck to all who choose to take part . I mostly agree, only I would question the size of the market. The website seems to be pushing it towards domestic properties (I suspect the commercial and larger multi occupancy market is well catered for). I suspect it would raise most insurance premiums. How often does your current fire alarms sound when there is no fire, that's just annoying (or the dinner bell for some) water gushing everywhere would certainly make it less attractive. I have no idea what could be patented, the water, flexible hose, flush light fitting type housing or the sensor (multiple designs of which are already in existence)? I also find the funding range odd, £200,000 or a Million or wherever it gets. Its a niche family business. On the plus side, different borrower.
|
|
blender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,719
Likes: 4,272
|
Post by blender on Jul 18, 2018 17:23:32 GMT
This feels to me more like an equity punt though it's not as bad as the "crazy boat" proposal in that there seems to be a market, a product and customers, ie an actual functioning business. That having been said I have no idea what the security is worth. Unless we get more detail from ablrate I think I'll be sitting this one out. Which is a shame, because in many respects it seems like a worthwhile venture. Still, good luck to all who choose to take part . Yes it is much better than the boat. They have a growing business which needs funding. However, this is not really 'asset backed' lending, as I like to see on Ablrate. The online informal valuation of potential IP based on its forecast exploitation, rather than an explanation of what it patentable, does not convince. Now, if they took a charge on a good house owned by a director, that would help. Sadly, I guess that is not available. I think I have decided to join in once it reaches the minimum. Then decide how long to keep it.
|
|
star dust
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,998
Likes: 3,531
|
Post by star dust on Jul 18, 2018 17:37:01 GMT
Mod Hat on/ Just merged two threads here, other one started by @bobo (now second post) - hope it still makes sense for you all.
|
|
mason
Member of DD Central
Posts: 662
Likes: 640
|
Post by mason on Jul 18, 2018 17:58:40 GMT
Also worth noting that once it has been published this doesn't mean you can sue anybody for using it. Within six months of the publication the company has to ask for a "Substantive Examination" of the patent application, the process by which you basically have to convince the UK IP office that the invention is worthy of a patent. From my research it typically takes around 4 years from the date of application to obtain a patent although can be as quick as 18 months if the business is proactive in its responses and the invention isn't complicated. No idea whether this particular one constitutes "complicated" or not! Not sure whether this is being taken down the PCT route in order to get protection internationally, but the IP strategy is not really stated at all. For PCT filings, there is an international search report and written opinion of the search authority published within about 3 months of publication. Publication will usually be 6 months after the PCT filing date, which in turn is at the latest 12 months from the priority date of the application, on a Thursday. Based on the date lodged at the IPO, this will publish in early to mid August by either route. It is unfortunate that the loan was not delayed by a few weeks, as this would have enabled us to assess the application. The valuation seems to hinge entirely upon the patent application being granted. Of course, we don't know what is claimed, but I have little reservation that the invention would have industrial applicability. The main challenge would be to demonstrate an inventive step - without seeing what is claimed in the application, there really is no way of even guessing the probability that what these guys have could be considered both novel and inventive vs the prior art. Lots of patents fail to meet these requirements and I'm struggling to understand the ramifications of the patent application not being granted. The other risk is that the patent application is not a very substantial impediment to others trying to achieve the same thing. I'd love somewhere to invest some of my recently repaid capital, but sadly without a better understanding of the IP, this isn't it. I am a little suspicious of the timing of this loan. Perhaps I'll have an opportunity to take a bite, or not, in a few weeks after evaluating the patent application.
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2018 18:12:29 GMT
I watched the company video where they claim that more house fires occur, in reality the numbers of fires in houses is falling year on year, but the value of stuff that people claim to own is going up (claim is the point) so the insurance costs could be going up.
I havn't dug out the patent details but the only technical thing they talk about is the use of stainless steel parts to avoid o rings at seal points. If that is the basis of the patent, which means the thing can fire-off twice if the fire rekindles, it has some value. Possibly too many ifs.
|
|
gareot
Member of DD Central
Posts: 75
Likes: 63
|
Post by gareot on Jul 18, 2018 18:34:12 GMT
I watched the company video where they claim that more house fires occur, in reality the numbers of fires in houses is falling year on year, but the value of stuff that people claim to own is going up (claim is the point) so the insurance costs could be going up.
I havn't dug out the patent details but the only technical thing they talk about is the use of stainless steel parts to avoid o rings at seal points. If that is the basis of the patent, which means the thing can fire-off twice if the fire rekindles, it has some value. Possibly too many ifs.
Does anyone know the price comparison between this and a conventional sprinkler system because I would imagine that at the end of the day if they both do a similar job then a builder will be swayed by price rather than amount of damage caused in the event of the system being activated. Also with the recent legislation brought in I would imagine that the profits of all installers would have increased due to increased workload. This one seems to risky for me.
|
|
ceejay
Posts: 971
Likes: 1,149
|
Post by ceejay on Jul 18, 2018 19:04:02 GMT
I watched the company video where they claim that more house fires occur, in reality the numbers of fires in houses is falling year on year, but the value of stuff that people claim to own is going up (claim is the point) so the insurance costs could be going up.
I havn't dug out the patent details but the only technical thing they talk about is the use of stainless steel parts to avoid o rings at seal points. If that is the basis of the patent, which means the thing can fire-off twice if the fire rekindles, it has some value. Possibly too many ifs.
Does anyone know the price comparison between this and a conventional sprinkler system because I would imagine that at the end of the day if they both do a similar job then a builder will be swayed by price rather than amount of damage caused in the event of the system being activated. Also with the recent legislation brought in I would imagine that the profits of all installers would have increased due to increased workload. This one seems to risky for me. Reading the blurb, their claim is that the lower water volumes mean that their system doesn't need a special water supply - put the pump in a kitchen unit and connect it to standard mains. I've no idea how unique that is, but if true would make a big difference to installation costs, especially if you were retrofitting.
|
|
Carter
Member of DD Central
Posts: 250
Likes: 549
|
Post by Carter on Jul 18, 2018 19:09:42 GMT
Come on ablrate any danger of being able to invest in this without sitting here hitting error messages?
|
|
ptr120
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,197
Likes: 1,346
|
Post by ptr120 on Jul 18, 2018 19:10:07 GMT
having been unable to invest at the start the site is now down completely (carcrash graphic)
|
|
|
Post by adspence on Jul 18, 2018 19:12:29 GMT
Come on ablrate any danger of being able to invest in this without sitting here hitting error messages? Very frustrating...I'd like to move on and do something else this evening rather than continually retrying to get a tiny bit of this loan.
|
|
|
Post by muttley916 on Jul 18, 2018 19:18:06 GMT
Life is too short to try and invest on my mobile with the awful web site, every page jumps about and then the damn error appears.
I give up.
|
|
|
Post by supernumerary on Jul 18, 2018 19:18:15 GMT
£97,129.00 invested so far....
|
|