aju
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Post by aju on Apr 3, 2019 17:02:52 GMT
So I've had to drop my rates so far this week as there seems to be rather a lot of money on the 5Y queue.
6.3% £409.3k 1747 £2.9m 6.2% £248.9k 1209 £2.5m 6.1% £1.7m 21109 £2.3m <<--- 6.0% £437.1k 3072 £545.3k 5.9% £67.2k 893 £108.2k 5.8% £13.0k 224 £41.1k 5.7% £16.4k 38 £28.0k 5.6% £3.9k 6 £11.7k 5.5% £7,803.33 13 £7,803.33
so the latest MR for the 5Y above shows there is a large amount in @ 6.1% 1.7m (its gone up to 1.8m as I write).
The "Invest" option has the spot rate hovering on 5.8% and 5.9% at the moment.
So my question is is this a normal effect. I.e the highest number of orders indicates the mean point of the RS lending money or is it just that. It suggests that these loans are approx £8 each so perhaps they are just that there are 21109 lenders set at 6.1% for returned funds perhaps.
Just curious as its the first time I've noticed this effect - I'm in at 6.2 having spent last week and most of today set at 6.6% and then 6.4% for the weekend with no sniffs.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Apr 3, 2019 17:16:36 GMT
It's the reinvestment queue. RS loans are repaid quickly compared to Z. Average loan term is 27 months. I had 5.3% worth of loans repaid last month.
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mark123
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Post by mark123 on Apr 3, 2019 19:05:35 GMT
It's the reinvestment queue. RS loans are repaid quickly compared to Z. Average loan term is 27 months. I had 5.3% worth of loans repaid last month. Yes, I've also had a lot of early repayments this month. Could be just random fluctuations but the total is more than I can remember. Could it be connected with RS trying to get the PF cover to be respectable before they next have to report it? Regards, Mark p.s. Aju: I think the average is about £80. M.
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aju
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Post by aju on Apr 3, 2019 22:32:21 GMT
It's the reinvestment queue. RS loans are repaid quickly compared to Z. Average loan term is 27 months. I had 5.3% worth of loans repaid last month. Yes, I've also had a lot of early repayments this month. Could be just random fluctuations but the total is more than I can remember. Could it be connected with RS trying to get the PF cover to be respectable before they next have to report it? Regards, Mark p.s. Aju: I think the average is about £80. M.Oops, thx mark123 for spotting that deliberate mistake, in the words of Cpt Mainwaring "I wondered if anyone would spot that"
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on Apr 4, 2019 0:01:16 GMT
It's the reinvestment queue. RS loans are repaid quickly compared to Z. Average loan term is 27 months. I had 5.3% worth of loans repaid last month. Yes, I've also had a lot of early repayments this month. Could be just random fluctuations but the total is more than I can remember. Could it be connected with RS trying to get the PF cover to be respectable before they next have to report it?
RS have said that early repayments only happen when the true borrower actually repays early, i.e., it's not as a result of some internal jiggery-pokery by RS. If so, then the excess of recent early repayments cannot be a deliberate effort by RS to improve the PF.
Even if it was, I believe RS say that early repayments actually have a negative effect on the PF, because of lower future expected income.
I had 15% of my outstanding principal repaid early in March, making a total of 32% so far this year. This is much faster than ever before. It's quite useful, at the moment: while I am in the dark about the direction of the PF, I want to reduce my exposure and this is happening much faster than I expected.
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Post by propman on Apr 4, 2019 14:15:57 GMT
Same effect on 1 year market. Impact is that the MR has dropped on both by 0.1%, but the money at MR is several day's worth. As a result there is more money than usual relent below MR and so MR moves slower than ever, a vicious circle. The 28 day average changes slowly to will persist for some time yet with MR effectively providing a ceiling for potential lending. I expect this to get even worse when money is put into the 2019/20 ISAs. I don't expect to lend much in April.
I don't expect any foul play by RS on the repayments. Much speclation and some survey evidence that people are getting more cautious on borrowing. I strongly suspedct that as in the GLA there will be a similar effect on people repaying existing borrowing to reduce exposure (ie using bonuses and other excess funds to repay when might previously have used these for increased spending).
The risk profile of RS borrowers has increased over the last couple of years. Zopa found with Z+ that higher risk borrowers not in financial difficulty actually repay early more frequently than you might expect, probably driven by refinancing (to increase borrowing capacity and/or take advantage of lower rates becoming available). The knock on effect is that the bad loans don't get repaid quicker and the recycled funds expose you to more potentially bad loans so that bad debt increases as a proportion of income.
- PM
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p2pete
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Post by p2pete on Apr 6, 2019 8:52:21 GMT
The queue for 6.5% for 5 years is £4.4million. Back to LW for now!
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jcb208
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Post by jcb208 on Apr 6, 2019 9:01:47 GMT
New tax year same as when the ISA came out last year, lots of money will be flooding in sending rates even lower
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aju
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Post by aju on Apr 6, 2019 16:01:04 GMT
So I am confused at present. If this is where the reinvest money is - i'm guessing as the MR on the rate trends screen suggests this is the case. But the invest screen is posting much lower than this. The 5Y lend rate as I write this is 4.5% (this corroborated by the borrower offers table in "View Full Market" for 5Y). So when returned money comes in daily * Is it set at the daily market rate as in the trends screen? * Does it set at whatever RS thinks it should be on the day? * Or is it just that there were 26433 people who had set their relend on the 5Y at 6.0%. I'm guessing daily lending will suck up this 3.4m or the next couple of days perhaps although other data suggest that RS was lending about 2.36M per day on average. So perhaps it will take a little longer to suck this 6.0% lot up. I wonder also what effect the new ISA year might have. As a side note I got fed up this volume yesterday morning with my 6.6%, that I was hoping to get lent out this weekend, and resorted to poking it in at 5.9% yesterday it was sucked up quicker than I expected but I'm still averaging above 6.0 since we started lending on RS last November.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Apr 6, 2019 16:14:09 GMT
The queue for 6.5% for 5 years is £4.4million. Back to LW for now! Yep, once again the “dumb money” is flooding the market. and yes withdrawing from the holding account and off to LW. I’ll be back in summer....
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 8, 2019 8:25:09 GMT
As well as IFISA money coming in, I wonder if part of the cause of low rates is that RS lending for March 2019 is down 34% over last month and down 10% over March 2018 according to the P2P-banking site, see here
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Post by propman on Apr 8, 2019 12:24:51 GMT
As well as IFISA money coming in, I wonder if part of the cause of low rates is that RS lending for March 2019 is down 34% over last month and down 10% over March 2018 according to the P2P-banking site, see hereLast week was the lowesrt lending this year. I wonder whether they have upped the PF contributions to address the bad debt issue. This would make the APR increase by the addition and make RS less competitive. Previously this would quickly rebalance through a reduced MR so only "Own Rate" money would remain outstanding. However, with the MR being based on 28 days now, MR adjusts slowly and so there is a build up at MR. As there is so much at that rate, people are putting money on at lower rates (which will include most 2019/20 IFISA funds) and so only a small proportion of the lending is from this fund. As a result, this is likely to increase for some time. Eventually MR will reduce to a level where the money relent at MR plus that people are prepared to put on at lower rates is less than the amount lent. Then the MR queue will start to shrink. Before then (possibly a month or more away), the queue will largely be reduced by the impatient withdrawing!
- PM
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 8, 2019 15:33:18 GMT
"Note that at time of publishing no official figure was available for me regarding the Ratesetter volume for March 2019. The figure in the table is an estimate by me. It could be quite off. I contacted Ratesetter for an official figure but have yet to receive a reply."
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Post by propman on Apr 9, 2019 13:16:02 GMT
"Note that at time of publishing no official figure was available for me regarding the Ratesetter volume for March 2019. The figure in the table is an estimate by me. It could be quite off. I contacted Ratesetter for an official figure but have yet to receive a reply."
Assuming £2,842M is the total lending to end of Feb, the Provision Fund sheet has £64,072,312 as loans in March 2019 against £42,360,692 in March 2018 (increase of 51%) and £61,466,451 for Feb 2019 (a 4% increase). That said, last week only saw £13,697,678, the lowest this year with only one other week below £15m this year (see ratetrends graph)!
- PM
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pioruns
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Post by pioruns on Apr 18, 2019 15:56:24 GMT
Hi guys,
Looks like rates have dropped, currently we have:
Rolling 3.2% 1 Year 4.5% 5 Year Income 5.7% most likely because of new money incoming (new ISA tax year), right?
When this will come back to usual, higher rates, can someone tell from experience? I am new to RS, only been there for few months, I'm moving my money here from Zopa, which is extremely dissapointing as of late.
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