mjc
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Post by mjc on Jul 29, 2018 20:41:25 GMT
I am thinking Proplend (if there were any investments available), and HNW (if you have a larger sum available), would free up loads of time in doing DD, investing, worrying, tracking and complaining on here, and still give a higher net rate.
Yes the number of -1% loans seems to have increased dramatically recently. Oh dear!
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Post by thegrumbler on Jul 29, 2018 22:47:57 GMT
FS is one of the slowest to take any action whatsoever. I have some NI loans which have been 'active' (with zero payent watsoever) for 795+days and many Others which seems secure and turned out to disasters. I am to a point where I cannot trust FS even for a gem (!) and many lenders had enough of this band of people not caring about our money... For your other question, it is OBVIOUS. FS is pumping in money (via 'deep pocket' friends) just to keep the loans/renewals running and not pay massive interest for very long periods (as most loans are unfunded for long periods due to massive lack of confidence in the Platform). These deep pocket investors are not interested in the slightest in the loan and will need to recycle their money immediately for other loans in deep trouble, so they sell immediately as the loan goes live. It is like a cashflow management. It costs less to waste 1% than to pay 12/13% to all other investors while the loan is filling. As with all p2p it should be a holistic approach. Say you have £10000 too invest and you spread it over 200 loans even if 5% are very late or are even 100% loss your returns if in FISA is 7% APR after TAX (for 12% loans) if in your main account it would still fall within £1000 annual allowance and loss could be offset against any taxable interest if you have more invested in other P2P. Recoveries will reduce loss as and when they occur. I tend to buy high discount and sell low when nice people offer big initial savings. If nothing else it allows you to tempt others with large effective APRs later in loan life without you making less than base % and removing late/default risk for you. Lots of work but gives greater return for less risk than just buying and holding approx 18%. If you write off defaults in your own mind straight away it makes life much more simple. If you then get a payback it is like “Free money” for you to treat yourself . Bottom line is be happy with a tax free return of at least 5 times the bank rates. Lendy have lots of loans not defaulted but very overdue they at leas now ask investors to vote on various exit options. Perhaps this is a strategy FS should adopt on loans more than 180 days overdue. At least an early partial loss allows a chance to reinvest with ongoing recovery for balances due. Sorry, but your numbers simply don't stack up. The late+unredeemed loans on FS are more than 50% in my books (not 5%). Yes some late will recover (eventuall and perhaps) but the management is incredibly bad and you cannot trust they will do their best to recover anything at all. Also your strategy to sell later is based on the assumption that someone will buy your loan parts. I can guarantee I have loan parts at -1% and they are not selling. The market is pushing against FS at present and there is a reason for that. And if you ask wher I will be investing the money coming out of FS, it is in the stock market (selected specialty areas outside Uk and USA). The returns (I had for 10+ years) are much better for less effort.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Jul 29, 2018 23:10:45 GMT
On a lot p2p the investments are 1-3 years before any return is paid as with other investments. The nature of the property markets mean a delay as anyone buying or selling will attest . On time is early: late is normal. Default is unusual : Loss is unacceptable. As I said historically 79 of 2275 loans defaulted some of these were tranches so actual borrowers are lower. Late loans don’t really matter if you plan for each loan to take 12 months most will have paid. 70% of Lendy I have are late. I’ve over half a million in various p2p including mid twenty thousands in Collateral p2p is a mid to long term vector unless you have less than £10000 then it can be a very fluid low risk investment if you put the time in. As to -1% usually there are only a couple if any most months. I would guess summer holidays require investors to try and top up bank accounts. The same thing happens at festive season or just after when card bills land on doormats. As to stock markets l’ve over Quarter of a million giving fair return but it is taxable reducing earnings substantially. Unless you invest in funds and invest a lot for the small investor not having larger sums at one time dealing fees account for a high percentage of each investment. In January most of stock market fell up to 15% most have recovered. You could loose 100% Asset backed p2p unless fraudulent that level of loss is impossible. Most people don’t have the time to research shares and rely on people who take their cut to manage things. Always good to diversify a portfolio to include many different investment vectors.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Jul 29, 2018 23:39:36 GMT
Having FS put the selling premium back to -4% I guarantee the secondary market stalled sales will move faster than a dose of Montezuma's revenge
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Post by df on Jul 30, 2018 0:10:55 GMT
Is there something I am missing why are so many loans up at -1%? I have just looked and of the 240 loans that are for sale 103 of them at -1% and 104 of them are at a minus premium. That means there are many over 20% returns for those with cash in their FISA . Are you selling if so why ? Because this is a strategy for FS property loans I adopted over a year ago and it worked well for me so far. The rationale is lower return for lower risk. Last "feast" period (iirc just before the end of tax year) I had only one not sold (collection of buildings in NI), but luckily it got renewed, so I didn't loose anything on FS property loans yet since I've started putting all of them for sale. I keep my discounts as low as they have to be in order sell. I don't know what to expect from the current "feast", time will show...
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aj
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Post by aj on Jul 30, 2018 6:38:51 GMT
Is there something I am missing why are so many loans up at -1%? I have just looked and of the 240 loans that are for sale 103 of them at -1% and 104 of them are at a minus premium. That means there are many over 20% returns for those with cash in their FISA . Are you selling if so why ? I'm not selling as less than 4% of my FS portfolio is sellable; the rest is in overdue loans that i have varying degrees of confidence in.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 30, 2018 6:46:43 GMT
exactly - I accept risk but I don't expect the dreadful DD and total lack of financial acumen shown my FS. If this lot worked for one of the major city players they would be sacked. Just look at the results and there is worse to come - how on earth can anybody lose 100% in the propert market e.g Wimbledon and give £530K to a developer with a curious track record for a small building plot which did not even attract one bid at auction. There are 2 x £300K investments in the cinema which I keep banging on about. I don't know what is exactly happening here (neither do FS in my opinion) but I know enough to be very concerned. If this one goes the way of Whitehaven (and I think it will) then a 50% loss is going to need one almighty FS investment that performs very well in order for these BH to see anything like a positive return....why are people selling loans - maybe like me they think they are rubbish!
good luck to those of you who persevere with FS but junk bond trading is not for me,
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number5
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Post by number5 on Jul 30, 2018 7:11:58 GMT
Is there something I am missing why are so many loans up at -1%? I have just looked and of the 240 loans that are for sale 103 of them at -1% and 104 of them are at a minus premium. That means there are many over 20% returns for those with cash in their FISA . Are you selling if so why ? Because this is a strategy for FS property loans I adopted over a year ago and it worked well for me so far. The rationale is lower return for lower risk. Last "feast" period (iirc just before the end of tax year) I had only one not sold (collection of buildings in NI), but luckily it got renewed, so I didn't loose anything on FS property loans yet since I've started putting all of them for sale. I keep my discounts as low as they have to be in order sell. I don't know what to expect from the current "feast", time will show... How do you determine what is the low enough discount to apply to a loan in order for it to sell? Especially in this market...
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Jul 30, 2018 7:53:04 GMT
Because this is a strategy for FS property loans I adopted over a year ago and it worked well for me so far. The rationale is lower return for lower risk. Last "feast" period (iirc just before the end of tax year) I had only one not sold (collection of buildings in NI), but luckily it got renewed, so I didn't loose anything on FS property loans yet since I've started putting all of them for sale. I keep my discounts as low as they have to be in order sell. I don't know what to expect from the current "feast", time will show... How do you determine what is the low enough discount to apply to a loan in order for it to sell? Especially in this market... Logically that would be equal to or greater than the current discount available.
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number5
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Post by number5 on Jul 30, 2018 8:18:14 GMT
How do you determine what is the low enough discount to apply to a loan in order for it to sell? Especially in this market... Logically that would be equal to or greater than the current discount available. Logically of course that would be the case! But that can change minute by minute or in seconds...unless you are going to go and check each loan part, the lowest discount available 24/7 and then adjust yours one lower each time...which would be too time consuming!
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Jul 30, 2018 8:23:26 GMT
Logically that would be equal to or greater than the current discount available. Logically of course that would be the case! But that can change minute by minute or in seconds...unless you are going to go and check each loan part, the lowest discount available 24/7 and then adjust yours one lower each time...which would be too time consuming! In your case then the answer to your original question with this additional outrider is -1%
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mjc
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Post by mjc on Jul 30, 2018 8:51:35 GMT
On a lot p2p the investments are 1-3 years before any return is paid as with other investments. The nature of the property markets mean a delay as anyone buying or selling will attest . On time is early: late is normal. Default is unusual : Loss is unacceptable. As I said historically 79 of 2275 loans defaulted some of these were tranches, so actual borrowers are lower. Late loans don’t really matter if you plan for each loan to take 12 months most will have paid. 70% of Lendy I have are late. I’ve over half a million in various p2p including mid twenty thousands in Collateral p2p is a mid to long term vector unless you have less than £10000 then it can be a very fluid low risk investment if you put the time in. As to -1% usually there are only a couple if any most months. I would guess summer holidays require investors to try and top up bank accounts. The same thing happens at festive season or just after when card bills land on doormats. As to stock markets l’ve over Quarter of a million giving fair return but it is taxable reducing earnings substantially. Unless you invest in funds and invest a lot for the small investor not having larger sums at one time dealing fees account for a high percentage of each investment. In January most of stock market fell up to 15% most have recovered. You could loose 100% Asset backed p2p unless fraudulent that level of loss is impossible. Most people don’t have the time to research shares and rely on people who take their cut to manage things. Always good to diversify a portfolio to include many different investment vectors. I don’t follow this. FS state to us each loan is for 6 months, renewable if that lender wishes. Of course most projects will take far longer than 6 months to complete, but don’t FS tell the borrower they have to pay the interest and (if they are still competent with a still viable loan proposition) it will be renewed? That is what they say to us, isn’t it? When I took out a Building Society mortgage, I knew if I was ever likely to miss a payment I would explain why, beg for time, before any arrears built up, and if I couldn’t pay I’d have to hand back the keys and lose my deposit, so the lender was never going to lose anything - except perhaps in a severe long house market crash. So if FS and the borrower have not agreed a SMALL time extension before the 6m is up, surely FS should be ready to press the start recovery button immediately? This is why there is a collapse in trust imv.
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mjc
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Post by mjc on Jul 30, 2018 9:06:03 GMT
How do you determine what is the low enough discount to apply to a loan in order for it to sell? Especially in this market... Surely just set a rate comparable with the lowest existing rates, not necessarily equal or higher unless you are desperate to sell. Otherwise it’s a race to the bottom - fire sale - confidence collapse - market panic etc. If I doesn’t sell in a few days increase discount further. in a proper functioning free market, everything has its price. if you buy at 12% interest and could sell after 4 months at -4% (ie 1/3 of a year), this would, I think, be at the break-even point.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 30, 2018 10:40:37 GMT
to a point I would agree but I would say being late in a development is one thing if ,like me, you only deal in cash and have additional readies in the bank. If you are like some of these borrowers who seem to have no cash and facing compulsory strike off etc then if you are left repaying e.g. £40K pcm in interest charges being late is not ideal - in fact (and I have the t-shirt) a complete disaster! Maybe there is a reason why most developers can't borrow anywhere else apart from FS or similar. If I went to my bank manager and asked him to fund some of these speculative developments that FS have done he would ask my wife if I had stopped taking the tablets...
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Post by dan1 on Jul 30, 2018 11:01:34 GMT
I was hoping this thread would have made more of the Rolex available at renewal... Grrrrr
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