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Bailed
Aug 7, 2018 21:28:19 GMT
Post by erniec on Aug 7, 2018 21:28:19 GMT
I’m afraid that the previous graph is the best I can do at the moment due to it covering a period where I have been adding funds and also moving funds from non-ISA to ISA. I have stopped adding funds now but will continue to move non-ISA to ISA for some months until I have moved sufficient to fill our personal allowance for this year. I hope to then be in a better position to do further analysis and better reflect an annual rate. What I am comfortable at the moment with is that returns are significantly better than traditional cash savings with minimal additional risk.
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Bailed
Aug 7, 2018 22:44:48 GMT
Post by bellybuster on Aug 7, 2018 22:44:48 GMT
After bailing on FC a few months ago, I've now bailed on Zopa. Here's why ...
£34k invested. Just about got out alive. Thanks P2P lending. It was a good run while it lasted.
hi, to understand this occurrence, do you mind sharing what the largest lump sum was that you deposited? Eg if it was £10,000 you'd have been lending out £100 per loan... I've had bad defaults which continue to knock profits after putting in £5k lump sum once. I know not to do this now, but I wonder how many do. I put the whole lot in in one go.
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aju
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Bailed
Aug 7, 2018 23:19:35 GMT
Post by aju on Aug 7, 2018 23:19:35 GMT
I’m afraid that the previous graph is the best I can do at the moment due to it covering a period where I have been adding funds and also moving funds from non-ISA to ISA. I have stopped adding funds now but will continue to move non-ISA to ISA for some months until I have moved sufficient to fill our personal allowance for this year. I hope to then be in a better position to do further analysis and better reflect an annual rate. What I am comfortable at the moment with is that returns are significantly better than traditional cash savings with minimal additional risk. I feel your problem with the lending and transferring getting in the way. The nearest i get to it and its very suck it and see, is to take the monthly return based on ( net monthly earnings / start of month total ) * 12. Its very rough and ready though. I've also started taking the last 12 months of these figures on a rolling basis which evens it out better. I'm getting much more stable figures so not sure they are accurate though. The one I use for real accuracy of return rate is the Tax year one and the 12 month one is statements too. Obviously they would only happen once a year. I asked zopa to provide a last 12 months reporter too but apparently that was too difficult and not on the top of the list. Great graphs though, thanks for the ideas.
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aju
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Bailed
Aug 7, 2018 23:20:29 GMT
Post by aju on Aug 7, 2018 23:20:29 GMT
hi, to understand this occurrence, do you mind sharing what the largest lump sum was that you deposited? Eg if it was £10,000 you'd have been lending out £100 per loan... I've had bad defaults which continue to knock profits after putting in £5k lump sum once. I know not to do this now, but I wonder how many do. I put the whole lot in in one go. Ouch!, hence the roller coaster look of the graph perhaps, although to be fair they do look quite a bit similar and I'm guessing they will look like mine too, if I could figure out the best approach in excel.
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Bailed
Aug 8, 2018 0:12:41 GMT
via mobile
aju likes this
Post by erniec on Aug 8, 2018 0:12:41 GMT
ajuYour rough and ready approach is exactly what I did.😀
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zlb
Member of DD Central
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Bailed
Aug 8, 2018 8:15:11 GMT
via mobile
Post by zlb on Aug 8, 2018 8:15:11 GMT
hi, to understand this occurrence, do you mind sharing what the largest lump sum was that you deposited? Eg if it was £10,000 you'd have been lending out £100 per loan... I've had bad defaults which continue to knock profits after putting in £5k lump sum once. I know not to do this now, but I wonder how many do. I put the whole lot in in one go. this could be what has caused your experience, you'd have loan amounts per borrower of 1% of that, but which Z keep quiet about... Eg they don't advertise the interest rates stating likelihood on only £1000 at a time deposited(therefore £10 loans). It would only take two defaulters at say £47 from within my £5k deposit to knock out my monthly earnings from a much larger, over all, account. I don't think that one is at the same statistical risk with more borrowers at £10 each. I made the larger deposit a long time ago now and my earnings are still being impacted by the £50 loans defaulting, rather than multiples of £10.
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Post by erniec on Aug 8, 2018 9:25:49 GMT
Logically, it shouldn’t matter what the size of your microloans are as the same proportion should default but I have to admit I do now feed any new money in to ensure £10 microloans.
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Post by portlandbill on Aug 8, 2018 11:03:24 GMT
seems to be an awful lot of risk for not much return.
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zlb
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Bailed
Aug 8, 2018 13:29:36 GMT
via mobile
Post by zlb on Aug 8, 2018 13:29:36 GMT
Logically, it shouldn’t matter what the size of your microloans are as the same proportion should default but I have to admit I do now feed any new money in to ensure £10 microloans. it Would initially appear so, but I'm not convinced. The large default chunks have more impact early on, it means that an evening out of returns would happen over a longer period than the recommended 18 months, I think. I think that their risk banding can be inaccurate (B rated instant defaults).
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aju
Member of DD Central
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Bailed
Aug 8, 2018 14:16:32 GMT
Post by aju on Aug 8, 2018 14:16:32 GMT
seems to be an awful lot of risk for not much return. I commented above about Zopa wanting to make the diversification better and some of their issues with that but I do seem to remember that in the earlier days it was even higher at 2% and they moved it to 1%, I think!. Not sure where the true risk is but one of the annoying things about defaults is the way they seem to have quite a small clawback rate lately. Perhaps its a factor of my increased lending, with increased numbers of defaults that its more obvious they are not paying back as much as they appeared to do for older defaults. Zopa has always maintained that its levels of defaults are not that high and their risk management and approach to lender checks was on point - the August 2017 admission of error excepted - but I've take recently to asking challenging question about those defaults that seem not to be bearing any fruits at all. Their answers were it was hard work but they are chasing aggressively, as we might expect - the fact there is little bearing fruits of these challenged is a little concerning. so for me I have taken to investing larger sums, but in a measured way - £10 max loans by lending in < 1999 amounts at a time - and also making sure that relend activated. Our total return level at the moment - despite all the defaults seems to be holding up at between 4-5%. There is about 25% still covered by SG, which may be a factor in my favour currently. Also I made a decision early up to only ever commit 20% max to Plus. As a result I think my lending is on track for my needs.
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Bailed
Aug 8, 2018 14:17:13 GMT
aju likes this
Post by wyndstryke on Aug 8, 2018 14:17:13 GMT
seems to be an awful lot of risk for not much return. That's why I mostly do the normal one not Z+ (a 95/5 split). But be aware that Z+ changed it's risk profile a while ago - the earlier risk profile was higher, the newer risk profile is a bit safer.
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aju
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Bailed
Aug 8, 2018 14:22:43 GMT
Post by aju on Aug 8, 2018 14:22:43 GMT
seems to be an awful lot of risk for not much return. That's why I mostly do the normal one not Z+ (a 95/5 split). But be aware that Z+ changed it's risk profile a while ago - the earlier risk profile was higher, the newer risk profile is a bit safer. Yeah, they said they made it better after August 2017 but I thought that only affected D/E loans, I do seem to get a lot of other defaults rather than D/E ones lately, perhaps that's result of the changes.
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zlb
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Bailed
Aug 8, 2018 16:30:35 GMT
via mobile
aju and cb25 like this
Post by zlb on Aug 8, 2018 16:30:35 GMT
seems to be an awful lot of risk for not much return. I'm beginning to think so also, with loan sale fees factored in, it only seems worth it for long term, and switch reinvest off to avoid sale fees. aju Z have been agreeing that the 1% needs changing for a long time now, but look at what they've done about it... I'm wondering whether they'll start issuing bonds, or guaranteed rates, on the bank side. The problem being that their highest risk product doesn't perform.
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benaj
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Bailed
Aug 8, 2018 16:54:44 GMT
Post by benaj on Aug 8, 2018 16:54:44 GMT
seems to be an awful lot of risk for not much return. I'm beginning to think so also, with loan sale fees factored in, it only seems worth it for long term, and switch reinvest off to avoid sale fees. aju Z have been agreeing that the 1% needs changing for a long time now, but look at what they've done about it... I'm wondering whether they'll start issuing bonds, or guaranteed rates, on the bank side. The problem being that their highest risk product doesn't perform. To be precise, it's not just 1% fee. First you give up the accrued interest when selling, then 1% fee, plus any interest adjustment. In my case the worst interest adjustment is £30 for selling £330 loan part, 9%!!! Also, to slow selling process (up to 20 working days or even more) means another 1% chance that any loan parts goes late or default, especially in the plus case. I only managed to get the 9% back after complaining to Z.
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Bailed
Aug 8, 2018 17:03:50 GMT
aju likes this
Post by wyndstryke on Aug 8, 2018 17:03:50 GMT
You'd probably be making a loss if you put in money for less than 4 months or so. 5 or 6 months to safely break even.
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