ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Aug 26, 2018 16:58:51 GMT
My gripe with this forum, for a long period, is not that there is negativity. In some cases negativity is perfectly reasonable. It's more that so little of this commentary is actually backed up with quantitative analysis. This is first and foremost a numbers game; coupon rates vs. loss given default equals returns. Instead there is a preference for personal experience (absolutely no fear of small sample bias on this forum) and gut feelings. Posters continually complaining about default rates and recoveries without actually crunching the numbers, doing the loan cohort analysis, calculating actual total returns. Useless metrics are pointed to, such as the ratio of tradeable to nontradeable live loans, completely ignoring redeemed loans. As an aside, however, the forum statistics ( link) just published are possibly illuminating regarding the state of the forum. New threads for the quarter were down 32% vs. the prior seven quarter average. New posts were down 27% vs. the prior seven quarter average. There were some deleted posts in those numbers (but there were some deleted posts in prior quarters aswell), so the drop is probably not as large as the headline number suggests. Nonetheless, it would be easy to argue activity is falling. What I think is more suspect is to extrapolate the impact of this forum to the wider P2P investor base. It's notable that of the 13k of posts made in the last quarter, almost 6k (47%) were in the Lendy/SS/Col sub-forums. Add in Abl and MT, and those posts account for 61% of total posts. These 5 platforms are a negligible percentage of the P2P industry (sub 4%) based on this years origination volumes. In fact the only market-relevant platform that gets a signficant percentage of posts is AC (9%). This is forum is squarely focussed on a minority interest in high-yield self-select platforms. This forum has little or no impact on the wider P2P lending base because this forum is in no way representative of the vast majority of P2P lending. I'm thankful for that because based on some posts it's fairly clear some posters really have no idea of what they are investing in, how to evaluate risk-reward and how to manage concentration risks. To be honest, the wider P2P lending community is doing just fine without this forum, having earned a perfectly reasonable 6.3%/annum (source: Alt Fi P2P index) without any of the hassle, in "fire and forget" products. Perhaps we need to learn from them? Can't argue with any of that ... except ... I do wonder if this argument suffers from the same problem as the Efficient Market Hypothesis... which is to say that markets don't really behave in the number-driven rational way that we might like to think.
I come here for a couple of reasons. One is to learn about the finer points of the various platforms in which I might invest; this has been very successful from my point of view. Yes, one does have to filter the fluff (this is the best platform ever) from the facts (this is how this feature works) but that's not usually too hard.
But the other reason is to take a thermometer to investor sentiment. Of course, this is not a huge sample and unlikely to be representative, but it's the best I can find and so I'm going with it. Why is this important?
Because the biggest risk in P2P investing, as far as I can see, is the rapid loss of investor confidence (probably but not necessarily in response to an external event). If and when there is a significant "run on the bank", I want to have the best chance possible of seeing it coming, and I think there are quite a few canaries in this particular coal mine.
Of course, both of my objectives here are made more difficult by poor signal-to-noise ratios, so I will join in everyone else in regretting the volumes of idle chatter in some places. Although, in the case of the COL forum, I think it has a particular value as a form of self-help therapy!
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coop
Member of DD Central
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Post by coop on Aug 29, 2018 15:06:06 GMT
Point taken (the OPs point that is) but I used to find it quite comfy here but since I have returned this month I can barely move for all the elephants in the room.
I think perhaps that is the underlying issue behind a perceived increase in hostility and lack of trust between forum members.
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michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Sept 6, 2018 13:32:07 GMT
I have some sympathy with the OP's argument about "noise" but disagree the forum has changed for the worse. If you look back at many of the historic posts, especially COL, L and MT, a lot of the posts were about how much of a loan someone managed to buy and posting how happy/unhappy they were about that. That's now largely replaced with how happy/unhappy people are with recovery results plus a few manic posters churning out dozens of doom&gloom posts. There is a fair bit of genuine research and that is typically posted into the DDC part of this forum.
The title of this thread is way over the top and I'm glad that this still seems to be the only place that is generally about the consumer investor without any links to syndicates or other opaque groups.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,329
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Post by ilmoro on Sept 6, 2018 14:03:28 GMT
I have some sympathy with the OP's argument about "noise" but disagree the forum has changed for the worse. If you look back at many of the historic posts, especially COL, L and MT, a lot of the posts were about how much of a loan someone managed to buy and posting how happy/unhappy they were about that. That's now largely replaced with how happy/unhappy people are with recovery results plus a few manic posters churning out dozens of doom&gloom posts. There is a fair bit of genuine research and that is typically posted into the DDC part of this forum. The title of this thread is way over the top and I'm glad that this still seems to be the only place that is generally about the consumer investor without any links to syndicates or other opaque groups. Whats over the top about it? Its totally neutral as a thread title, devoid of any qualifying adjectives. Until you read the first post you wouldnt know whether it was a positive or negative view or merely the start of a debate.
Again with the conspiracy theories. Whats the difference between this forum and the other purple forum, or MSE, the posters are largely the same (except for those who cant post here) How do you know that there are no syndicates or opaque groups operating behind anonymous user names. I could be Warren Buffet for all you know or the front person for the Italian Mafia.
Personally this forum has changed for the worse. It has far more opinion than fact based debate, considerably less humour (not a banana or comedy gorilla in sight) and a lot more hyperbole.
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michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,703
Likes: 2,981
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Post by michaelc on Sept 6, 2018 14:47:02 GMT
I have some sympathy with the OP's argument about "noise" but disagree the forum has changed for the worse. If you look back at many of the historic posts, especially COL, L and MT, a lot of the posts were about how much of a loan someone managed to buy and posting how happy/unhappy they were about that. That's now largely replaced with how happy/unhappy people are with recovery results plus a few manic posters churning out dozens of doom&gloom posts. There is a fair bit of genuine research and that is typically posted into the DDC part of this forum. The title of this thread is way over the top and I'm glad that this still seems to be the only place that is generally about the consumer investor without any links to syndicates or other opaque groups. Whats over the top about it? Its totally neutral as a thread title, devoid of any qualifying adjectives. Until you read the first post you wouldnt know whether it was a positive or negative view or merely the start of a debate.
Again with the conspiracy theories. Whats the difference between this forum and the other purple forum, or MSE, the posters are largely the same (except for those who cant post here) How do you know that there are no syndicates or opaque groups operating behind anonymous user names. I could be Warren Buffet for all you know or the front person for the Italian Mafia.
Personally this forum has changed for the worse. It has far more opinion than fact based debate, considerably less humour (not a banana or comedy gorilla in sight) and a lot more hyperbole.
Haha I thought I might get a response like that followed no doubt by 50 likes from said groups. The title certainly isn't neutral since people often use/misue the word "state" to mean "bad state" as in "look at the state of that". Anyway, you'll be please to know nothing more from me on the subject.
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toffeeboy
Member of DD Central
Posts: 538
Likes: 385
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Post by toffeeboy on Sept 6, 2018 18:17:06 GMT
Whats over the top about it? Its totally neutral as a thread title, devoid of any qualifying adjectives. Until you read the first post you wouldnt know whether it was a positive or negative view or merely the start of a debate.
Again with the conspiracy theories. Whats the difference between this forum and the other purple forum, or MSE, the posters are largely the same (except for those who cant post here) How do you know that there are no syndicates or opaque groups operating behind anonymous user names. I could be Warren Buffet for all you know or the front person for the Italian Mafia.
Personally this forum has changed for the worse. It has far more opinion than fact based debate, considerably less humour (not a banana or comedy gorilla in sight) and a lot more hyperbole.
Haha I thought I might get a response like that followed no doubt by 50 likes from said groups. The title certainly isn't neutral since people often use/misue the word "state" to mean "bad state" as in "look at the state of that". Anyway, you'll be please to know nothing more from me on the subject. So because people use state in the incorrect way it makes it wrong for those that know state is just another word for condition. If it had said bad state then it would have been negative, good state then positive but just state is as Ilmoro says it is neutral.
Personally I assumed that the subject title is a play on words from "state of the union", are you saying that is a negative view of the United States that they do annually?
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Post by mint on Sept 6, 2018 18:39:16 GMT
Personally I assumed that the subject title is a play on words from "state of the union", are you saying that is a negative view of the United States that they do annually? But it wasn't made by those *in charge* was it, indeed it was done pointing a finger at them.
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Post by captainconfident on Sept 6, 2018 18:40:24 GMT
How!
Big Chief Wampum say, don't get your wigwam in a twist over a word. Have powWow and smoke pipe of peace for the sake of the tribe.
I have lovely tobacco made of shredded Lendy and Assetz loan contracts.
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Post by mint on Sept 6, 2018 18:50:54 GMT
Again with the conspiracy theories. Whats the difference between this forum and the other purple forum, or MSE, the posters are largely the same . Well here's one difference –red circle mine just in-case you couldn’t see it through all the puce. Nicely spotted a while back here p2pindependentforum.com/post/220960/thread – word on the street the ‘fight club’s’ gone deep(er) down. 
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Post by pepperpot on Sept 6, 2018 23:27:33 GMT
I have some sympathy with the OP's argument about "noise" but disagree the forum has changed for the worse. If you look back at many of the historic posts, especially COL, L and MT, a lot of the posts were about how much of a loan someone managed to buy and posting how happy/unhappy they were about that. That's now largely replaced with how happy/unhappy people are with recovery results plus a few manic posters churning out dozens of doom&gloom posts. There is a fair bit of genuine research and that is typically posted into the DDC part of this forum. The title of this thread is way over the top and I'm glad that this still seems to be the only place that is generally about the consumer investor without any links to syndicates or other opaque groups. Whats over the top about it? Its totally neutral as a thread title, devoid of any qualifying adjectives. Until you read the first post you wouldnt know whether it was a positive or negative view or merely the start of a debate.
Again with the conspiracy theories. Whats the difference between this forum and the other purple forum, or MSE, the posters are largely the same (except for those who cant post here) How do you know that there are no syndicates or opaque groups operating behind anonymous user names. I could be Warren Buffet for all you know or the front person for the Italian Mafia.
Personally this forum has changed for the worse. It has far more opinion than fact based debate, considerably less humour (not a banana or comedy gorilla in sight) and a lot more hyperbole.
There's absolutely no way I could believe you were involved with the Italian Mafia, not with a name like Warren.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,329
Likes: 11,545
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Post by ilmoro on Sept 6, 2018 23:57:47 GMT
Whats over the top about it? Its totally neutral as a thread title, devoid of any qualifying adjectives. Until you read the first post you wouldnt know whether it was a positive or negative view or merely the start of a debate.
Again with the conspiracy theories. Whats the difference between this forum and the other purple forum, or MSE, the posters are largely the same (except for those who cant post here) How do you know that there are no syndicates or opaque groups operating behind anonymous user names. I could be Warren Buffet for all you know or the front person for the Italian Mafia.
Personally this forum has changed for the worse. It has far more opinion than fact based debate, considerably less humour (not a banana or comedy gorilla in sight) and a lot more hyperbole.
There's absolutely no way I could believe you were involved with the Italian Mafia, not with a name like Warren. Thats Don Warren to you, Cuthbert. So much for omerta 
Now say hello to my little friend
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coop
Member of DD Central
Posts: 714
Likes: 571
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Post by coop on Sept 25, 2018 14:34:04 GMT
I have some sympathy with the OP's argument about "noise" but disagree the forum has changed for the worse. If you look back at many of the historic posts, especially COL, L and MT, a lot of the posts were about how much of a loan someone managed to buy and posting how happy/unhappy they were about that. That's now largely replaced with how happy/unhappy people are with recovery results plus a few manic posters churning out dozens of doom&gloom posts. There is a fair bit of genuine research and that is typically posted into the DDC part of this forum. The title of this thread is way over the top and I'm glad that this still seems to be the only place that is generally about the consumer investor without any links to syndicates or other opaque groups. Whats over the top about it? Its totally neutral as a thread title, devoid of any qualifying adjectives. Until you read the first post you wouldnt know whether it was a positive or negative view or merely the start of a debate.
Again with the conspiracy theories. Whats the difference between this forum and the other purple forum, or MSE, the posters are largely the same (except for those who cant post here) How do you know that there are no syndicates or opaque groups operating behind anonymous user names. I could be Warren Buffet for all you know or the front person for the Italian Mafia.
Personally this forum has changed for the worse. It has far more opinion than fact based debate, considerably less humour (not a banana or comedy gorilla in sight) and a lot more hyperbole.
Careful! You nearly walked straight into one of the elephants i was talking about 
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