agent69
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Post by agent69 on Sept 2, 2018 7:41:21 GMT
1. Did I Wake up ? If you do then that’s a good day.
If that's how you're measuring success, you're setting the cross bar way too low!
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09dolphin
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Post by 09dolphin on Sept 2, 2018 10:24:43 GMT
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO INDICATION OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE If you want little risk then sell all loans after 60 days at -1%. Which appears to be happening now .If you do this LTV or LTGDV don’t matter in the slightest as you won’t be holding loans to completion.
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bg
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Post by bg on Sept 2, 2018 10:46:28 GMT
Out of interest, the number of loans for sale at the maximum discount (1%) has dropped dramatically in the past 3 weeks. From a high of 164 on Aug 10th to 67 right now. Sentiment is definitely improving - for some at least.  |
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Sept 2, 2018 12:27:31 GMT
not for me as I see there are 21 loans still available - if the cinema actually completes before the auction it will increase my confidence in FS.
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bg
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Post by bg on Sept 2, 2018 13:01:31 GMT
not for me as I see there are 21 loans still available - if the cinema actually completes before the auction it will increase my confidence in FS. I don't follow your argument that having loans available to invest in is a sign of bad sentiment. Surely that's the whole point of any platform? If having no pipeline of loans is better then you could say sentiment on the likes of MT is through the roof as they have no new loans on offer (actually it's one now I think). Platforms have been heavily crtiticised on here when they have no loans available. I really think they can't win with some people. AC for example has put a lot of effort into making sure there are lots of loans available for investors to chose from - this does not indicate that sentiment is really negative on AC, where active loans have increased by £100m in 3 months. I have produced evidence that sentiment is improving on FS as loans offered at a 1% discount have plummeted as have loans offered at any discount over the last 3 weeks. That is firm evidence that people are actively choosing to discount their loans less. If that is not an improvement in sentiment then what would you put it down to? Fair enough saying your confidence has not improved, that's your opinion. But to say sentiment in the platform is no better as they have 21 loans available for investors to invest in (many of them fully underwritten) is a very weak argument in my view.
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rogerthat
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Post by rogerthat on Sept 2, 2018 13:10:44 GMT
not for me as I see there are 21 loans still available - if the cinema actually completes before the auction it will increase my confidence in FS. And the art loans (my major headache by a factor of x ) and Barnoldswick and Microsculptures and C***** House and Lytham etc etc ...the list is seemingly endless though I realise I was fortunate to miss other more historical disasters. I haven't entirely lost faith in the concept of P2P yet.. but I need some returns of capital and interest before any further significant lending and perhaps just as importantly, I need to improve my own DD and definitely be more selective. Having looked at mrclondon 's recent 'holiday' snaps its also clear that FS have to stop relying on 'progress' reports from the borrowers and monitor far more closely the real time situation. The appointment of CBRE on the Roddymoor Crook development for example was a good if overdue decision and might yet pull that one out of the fire and I hope FS start to roll that out on most if not all developments. I realise that costs money but id willingly take a cut in interest rates knowing that the intel on loans is accurate and not a blatant distortion of the truth. Im prepared to continue in P2P but the time for promises is at an end..I need some returns
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arby
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Post by arby on Sept 2, 2018 13:19:20 GMT
not for me as I see there are 21 loans still available - if the cinema actually completes before the auction it will increase my confidence in FS. The small loans still fill very quickly, while sensible property loans up to 100k still fill well, but obviously loans of up to £1m will hang around a long time.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Sept 2, 2018 14:11:39 GMT
Of course you are right and if such underwritten loans were immediately snapped up then that would indicate a total lack of confidence!
1875630890 seems a 3rd charge to me on what is clearly a highly speculative development at best - I am staggered it has filled as much as it has. The military collection seems to have recently filled after being on the market for weeks - we will return to this one!
Maybe there are less discounted loans on the market because people such as myself have taken a small hit and just got rid of as many as possible.
I am wading through the list of connected Liverpool etc loans - is it not easy reading!
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bg
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Post by bg on Sept 2, 2018 14:43:33 GMT
Of course you are right and if such underwritten loans were immediately snapped up then that would indicate a total lack of confidence! 1875630890 seems a 3rd charge to me on what is clearly a highly speculative development at best - I am staggered it has filled as much as it has. The military collection seems to have recently filled after being on the market for weeks - we will return to this one! Maybe there are less discounted loans on the market because people such as myself have taken a small hit and just got rid of as many as possible. I am wading through the list of connected Liverpool etc loans - is it not easy reading! OK but by your same metric, AC have £53.2m for sale, spread over 280 loans. Does that mean sentiment is 10 times worse there?
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sqh
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Before P2P, savers put a guinea in a piggy bank, now they smash the banks to become guinea pigs.
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Post by sqh on Sept 2, 2018 15:09:44 GMT
Out of interest, the number of loans for sale at the maximum discount (1%) has dropped dramatically in the past 3 weeks. From a high of 164 on Aug 10th to 67 right now. Sentiment is definitely improving - for some at least. bgA very interesting graph. I didn't realise how quickly we went from 0 at -1% to 164 at -1%. It's clear to me that the drop on Aug 10th was due to 2 repayments on that day (Plymouth and Bradford-on-Avon repaid over £1.5m on Aug 10th). There was another big repayment on Aug 14th - Cardiff Bay. That seems to have had the same effect. So why did we go from 0 at 1% to 164 at -1% in just 5 weeks between the beginning of July to August 10th? I think the FS June newsletter released on 11th June was very revealing. It had a section saying additional staff would be focusing on late loans. It also listed 11 loans which were expected to renew, refinance or repay within a month. Not one of those expectations happened in June, and lenders got worried that nothing was getting repaid. The worry then escalated through July. By the end of July none of the 11 highlighted in the newsletter failed to materialise, and I saw some panic selling from big players. It wasn't until August 10th that any of the 11 repaid, or renewed, and the panic selling was over. I call it panic selling because I was buying large amounts of unbelievably safe loans at discount. Now 4 of the 11 have repaid or renewed and tomorrow the biggest of all should get repaid. I predict the number of loans at -1% on the SM will be in single figures by mid September.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Sept 2, 2018 15:19:41 GMT
I have no idea as we are not talking about them - that said my porfolio with them is performing much better than mine with FS...
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bg
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Post by bg on Sept 2, 2018 15:56:05 GMT
I have no idea as we are not talking about them - that said my porfolio with them is performing much better than mine with FS... Yes but you are saying that a platform with loans available to invest in is a sign of bad sentiment. I am saying most platforms have loans to invest in.....unless they are in serious trouble (like MT) or have no pipeline (like ABL). Having loans to invest in is not a sign of negativity against a platform.
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arby
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Post by arby on Sept 2, 2018 22:13:01 GMT
I have no idea as we are not talking about them - that said my porfolio with them is performing much better than mine with FS... Yes but you are saying that a platform with loans available to invest in is a sign of bad sentiment. I am saying most platforms have loans to invest in.....unless they are in serious trouble (like MT) or have no pipeline (like ABL). Having loans to invest in is not a sign of negativity against a platform. A change can be a sign of something though. If suddenly there are a huge number of loans available then either FS is becoming much more popular in the market and is a bigger player, or maybe their standards are slipping and they're letting everything through (bad thing), or maybe they're just changing their portfolio and are now writing bigger loans, or maybe there's less new money coming in to fill those loans. From our position we're pretty much just guessing so no point reading too much into it.
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bg
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Post by bg on Sept 2, 2018 22:30:41 GMT
Yes but you are saying that a platform with loans available to invest in is a sign of bad sentiment. I am saying most platforms have loans to invest in.....unless they are in serious trouble (like MT) or have no pipeline (like ABL). Having loans to invest in is not a sign of negativity against a platform. A change can be a sign of something though. If suddenly there are a huge number of loans available then either FS is becoming much more popular in the market and is a bigger player, or maybe their standards are slipping and they're letting everything through (bad thing), or maybe they're just changing their portfolio and are now writing bigger loans, or maybe there's less new money coming in to fill those loans. From our position we're pretty much just guessing so no point reading too much into it. It hasn't changed though. The number of loans available has been around the 20 mark for several weeks now. If FS have the pipeline it's easy for them to add new loans to keep it around the 20 mark. What has changed is the amount discounted on the SM. In the last 3 weeks loans discounted at 1% have fallen from 164 to 62 now (yes down another 5 from earlier) and loans offered with any discount has fallen from 213 to 147. I am inferring from those stats that sentiment is improving somewhat which I think is a reasonable deduction, although others beg to differ.
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bg
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Post by bg on Sept 2, 2018 22:34:43 GMT
Also I don't think it's any coincidence that loans that are late have fallen by £2.5m in the same 3 week period. I don't think that hurts sentiment.
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