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Post by Ace on Sept 16, 2018 18:25:48 GMT
I agree with the comment that if you pull out the good stuff it’s not surprising you are fairing badly. More interested in experience like the last comment ie where sums left in for a decent period. Thanks for your help so far. Sorry I didn't make it clear that I had invested for over 5 years when I decided to cash out towards the end of last year (ish). I had a few hundred loans but don't recall how many - perhaps I could check if I get time and if it helps someone. When you've invested for a decent period of time of course you get non "good stuff". So when I tried to cash out, I found that this annualised return started close to double digits (maybe was slightly higher?) and just went down and down and down all this year. That probably happened because as you say there is no "good stuff" left. However, my understanding is that that figure represents what I have earned since I started investing at FC. I just hope that Ace is right and the number will start to creep up as recoveries kick in.Why is that experience not relevant to your question? Hi michaelc, I should point out that that was a hopeful theory, not an expectation based on any knowledge or experience. Hence my request for other's experience who had invested for a few years then pulled out some while ago, so we could get some idea as to whether your experience is typical.
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Stonk
Stonking
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Post by Stonk on Sept 16, 2018 22:10:02 GMT
I've been with FC approaching 2 years, other than a couple of minor 'test' withdrawals early days i have deposited only. May dashboard 'Estimated return (after fees and bad debts)' is 7.0%. My actual annual return is currently 8.14% based on cumulative monthly gains. I only have one downgraded/unsellable loan. I must have been very lucky. To me, that sounds phenomenally, incredibly, mind-bogglingly, unbelieveably lucky! Are you forgetting about defaulted loans? Surely there must be some of those.
By way of comparison, I have been with FC for 18 months. I self-selected, and since that became unavailable I have just let the account run untouched. I peaked at around 500 loans, and it's now down to 300-ish. I have 33 defaults, on top of which a further 8 downgraded that cannot be sold, and 15 others running late which cannot be sold. My dashboard says 4.5%, but the truth is 3.8%.
I feel like my account must be your Portrait of Dorian Gray.
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blender
Member of DD Central
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Post by blender on Sept 16, 2018 22:35:35 GMT
Write out one hundred times:
Processing, late, downgraded, defaulted Processing, late, downgraded, defaulted Processing, late, downgraded, defaulted
Processing …
You can watch the total funds number grow slowly, but you can never take it all out. If you are lucky, after six months you can take out what you put in.
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Stonk
Stonking
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Post by Stonk on Sept 16, 2018 22:56:41 GMT
Write out one hundred times:
Processing, late, downgraded, defaulted Processing, late, downgraded, defaulted Processing, late, downgraded, defaulted
Processing …
Surely it's:
Processing, late, downgraded, defaulted, recovered Processing, late, downgraded, defaulted, recovered Processing ...
No? 
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Sept 17, 2018 8:35:46 GMT
...I’d appreciate any feedback on quality of the debt book... Can't help you there as it is no longer possible to download the full book. I was happy to invest here until they withdrew this feature, I was hoping for something close to 7% with little effort in good times. One or two posters on here reported that their default rate had started to increase, mine hadn't, but without the loan book I couldn't tell if they had been unlucky or I had been lucky. I withdrew everything I could, no regrets.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Sept 17, 2018 9:05:14 GMT
Hopefully it worked I added my current position at FC. The 3.5% return seems to go down ever time I login (a year ago it was showing 9 ish percent). To be fair its probably due to me cashing out all the loans I could and leaving the under performing ones but neverthless my understanding is that this 3.5% is the rate I've received per annum for all 5+ years I've been in FC. At the current rate, this 3.5 is on track to turn negative by the end of the year ! Things do go wrong on FC, if that was my account I would investigate further. May do an XIRR on all money leaving and arriving in your bank account, together with your estimate of the remaining portfolio? If you had £20 invested for 4 years and 11 months followed by £1,000 for a month, then a single £20 default might cause the numbers you are seeing and I wouldn't be at all surprised. If your investment was constant at £1,000 for the full five years then you would have needed to suffer defaults of about 25% of your portfolio, after you withdrew, which is starting to seem very unlucky. Do you remember what fraction of your portfolio you were able to withdraw?
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Sept 17, 2018 11:57:25 GMT
Hopefully it worked I added my current position at FC. The 3.5% return seems to go down ever time I login (a year ago it was showing 9 ish percent). To be fair its probably due to me cashing out all the loans I could and leaving the under performing ones but neverthless my understanding is that this 3.5% is the rate I've received per annum for all 5+ years I've been in FC. At the current rate, this 3.5 is on track to turn negative by the end of the year ! Things do go wrong on FC, if that was my account I would investigate further. May do an XIRR on all money leaving and arriving in your bank account, together with your estimate of the remaining portfolio? If you had £20 invested for 4 years and 11 months followed by £1,000 for a month, then a single £20 default might cause the numbers you are seeing and I wouldn't be at all surprised. If your investment was constant at £1,000 for the full five years then you would have needed to suffer defaults of about 25% of your portfolio, after you withdrew, which is starting to seem very unlucky. Do you remember what fraction of your portfolio you were able to withdraw? Many thanks for the analysis. Thinking about it it might be closer to your 1000/20 extreme case in that I had a small amount for a very long time (how long has FC been going?). Then I increased this amount by a factor of ten much more recently and for about 6 months. Finally I tried to cash out. It allowed me to withdraw around 93%. Apologies these numbers are a bit vague - I need to keep better records I think! But could it explain why I'm seeing a 3.5% and could this figure rise? Also apologies to markaldrich since perhaps this experience isn't in fact that relevant to him?
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Post by markaldrich on Sept 17, 2018 12:02:35 GMT
No probs - all interesting insight
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Sept 17, 2018 14:18:30 GMT
You can watch the total funds number grow slowly, but you can never take it all out. You can check [it] out any time you like, but you can never leave...
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Post by Proptechfish on Sept 17, 2018 14:31:02 GMT
I've been with FC approaching 2 years, other than a couple of minor 'test' withdrawals early days i have deposited only. May dashboard 'Estimated return (after fees and bad debts)' is 7.0%. My actual annual return is currently 8.14% based on cumulative monthly gains. I only have one downgraded/unsellable loan. I must have been very lucky. To me, that sounds phenomenally, incredibly, mind-bogglingly, unbelieveably lucky! Are you forgetting about defaulted loans? Surely there must be some of those.
By way of comparison, I have been with FC for 18 months. I self-selected, and since that became unavailable I have just let the account run untouched. I peaked at around 500 loans, and it's now down to 300-ish. I have 33 defaults, on top of which a further 8 downgraded that cannot be sold, and 15 others running late which cannot be sold. My dashboard says 4.5%, but the truth is 3.8%.
I feel like my account must be your Portrait of Dorian Gray.
Nope i have just gone through everyone of my loans, all are paying on time including my one downgraded. With a £5 billion lender i guess some will get lucky and some not so much. Of course i'm aware this can change at any time but i don't intend to withdraw for at least 3 maybe 5 years. Maybe that's problem, constantly playing with the balance is just piling up a stack of unsellable loans.
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blender
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Post by blender on Sept 17, 2018 21:20:01 GMT
You can watch the total funds number grow slowly, but you can never take it all out. You can check [it] out any time you like, but you can never leave... Yes, it's Funding California. My oldest active default is 2454, which has recently celebrated the fifth anniversary of its default. We expect a further report soon. My heirs may receive some recovery-pence long after I am dead. There must be a large and growing number of Zombie accounts.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Sept 18, 2018 8:28:19 GMT
Ditto. My oldest is 1913 which is still recovering at about 1p per month.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 18, 2018 8:46:37 GMT
Ditto. My oldest is 1913 which is still recovering at about 1p per month. over 105 years that adds up
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Stonk
Stonking
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Post by Stonk on Sept 18, 2018 9:33:58 GMT
Ditto. My oldest is 1913 which is still recovering at about 1p per month. over 105 years that adds up Does interest continue to accrue once a loan defaults? Or does the borrower just have to pay back the balance (principal plus interest) as it stood at the time of default?
If the former, then I'm sure some of my apparently recovering loans are recovering more slowly than interest is being added, and will still be paying their pennies when the Sun engulfs the Earth. Which is a shame, because in my will I have instructed my great-great-grandchildren to close my FC account, and I don't think FC will let them.
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maxmarengo
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Post by maxmarengo on Sept 18, 2018 11:35:36 GMT
I did suggest to FC some years ago that they provide the facility to pass your zombie loans to a charity account that would pay out to a selection of charities nominated by the donors.
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