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Post by charliebrown on Oct 13, 2018 2:20:07 GMT
I don’t disagree. Most of my defaults have gone month after month after month with no material updates. Some have recycled excuses that were first seen a year ago. However, as someone who also has money stuck in COL (receivers appointed) the situation seems to be going absolutely nowhere. It all depends how professional the professionals are I guess. If you consider all loans as 2 year loans 95+% would be resolved.  Not sure I understand your point. Are you saying that 95% of defaults are resolved within 2 years? At this stage I am looking for resolution on this cataclysmic disaster. I have resigned myself to losing money, but I don’t want to endure the prolonged agony of it. I’d prefer to see recoveries accelerated and brought to a head. I’ll take the losses on the chin but I want to recover at least some of my money rather than be stuck in a perpetual state of “no progress” that LY serve up monthly and indefinitely. The “no progress” state is the hardest to deal with. If they just said we auctioned off the asset and we only recovered 25% of your capital, well at least it’s closure and we can draw a line under it and move on.
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richox
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Post by richox on Oct 13, 2018 8:38:14 GMT
I don’t disagree. Most of my defaults have gone month after month after month with no material updates. Some have recycled excuses that were first seen a year ago. However, as someone who also has money stuck in COL (receivers appointed) the situation seems to be going absolutely nowhere. It all depends how professional the professionals are I guess. If you consider all loans as 2 year loans 95+% would be resolved. That's a good way of looking at these loans Anubis. Expect that after 2 years 95% of them will give 6% pa interest and a 30% haircut. Or is that too optimistic?
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Oct 13, 2018 9:42:27 GMT
I don’t disagree. Most of my defaults have gone month after month after month with no material updates. Some have recycled excuses that were first seen a year ago. However, as someone who also has money stuck in COL (receivers appointed) the situation seems to be going absolutely nowhere. It all depends how professional the professionals are I guess. All I want is my capital back. For that, I think the professionals need to come in. Not going to happen with these clowns cooking up some discounted deal with the borrower and then selling it to us as the best they could do. It is unrealistic to expect your capital back on a defaulted high risk loan. Occasionally 100% capital recovery may occur but for 12% interest loans I think you should expect 50 -75%
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Oct 13, 2018 11:25:22 GMT
If you consider all loans as 2 year loans 95+% would be resolved. Not sure I understand your point. Are you saying that 95% of defaults are resolved within 2 years? At this stage I am looking for resolution on this cataclysmic disaster. I have resigned myself to losing money, but I don’t want to endure the prolonged agony of it. I’d prefer to see recoveries accelerated and brought to a head. I’ll take the losses on the chin but I want to recover at least some of my money rather than be stuck in a perpetual state of “no progress” that LY serve up monthly and indefinitely. The “no progress” state is the hardest to deal with. If they just said we auctioned off the asset and we only recovered 25% of your capital, well at least it’s closure and we can draw a line under it and move on. If you count all defaults as 100% capital loss (mentally) then you have moved on. After 2 years 95% will probably be settled.
So that leaves 5% of defaulted loans unresolved so probably 100% loss.
I have over 200 loans so say 10% default and 5% of that 10% unresolved after 2 years that would be 1 loan . (I would only hold 30% max to term)
As I put maximum of .8% of capital (at the moment) into any loan that can"t be sold that would be a tiny amount.
Count your whole portfollio as one loan and the gains as the return and you will never be disappointed if aggressively diversified with minimum individual loan investmet.
Bonus payment on those that do repay goes a long way to offset those that don't give full recovery
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Post by charliebrown on Oct 13, 2018 12:05:36 GMT
Not sure I understand your point. Are you saying that 95% of defaults are resolved within 2 years? At this stage I am looking for resolution on this cataclysmic disaster. I have resigned myself to losing money, but I don’t want to endure the prolonged agony of it. I’d prefer to see recoveries accelerated and brought to a head. I’ll take the losses on the chin but I want to recover at least some of my money rather than be stuck in a perpetual state of “no progress” that LY serve up monthly and indefinitely. The “no progress” state is the hardest to deal with. If they just said we auctioned off the asset and we only recovered 25% of your capital, well at least it’s closure and we can draw a line under it and move on. If you count all defaults as 100% capital loss (mentally) then you have moved on. After 2 years 95% will probably be settled.
So that leaves 5% of defaulted loans unresolved so probably 100% loss.
I have over 200 loans so say 10% default and 5% of that 10% unresolved after 2 years that would be 1 loan . (I would only hold 30% max to term)
As I put maximum of .8% of capital (at the moment) into any loan that can"t be sold that would be a tiny amount.
Count your whole portfollio as one loan and the gains as the return and you will never be disappointed if aggressively diversified with minimum individual loan investmet.
Bonus payment on those that do repay goes a long way to offset those that don't give full recovery
As this thread has highlighted, almost 50% of LY’s loan book is in default (more if you call <0 days a default). If you were aggressively diversified then 50% of your invested capital would be (mentally) written off. 2 years later a proportion of it would actually be written off (using the 2 year rule) and the rest would be stuck in an endless “no progress” loop. Quite how that wouldn’t leave you disappointed I don’t know. Quite how LY can continue to call that an “investment” I also don’t know.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Oct 13, 2018 12:20:01 GMT
If you count all defaults as 100% capital loss (mentally) then you have moved on. After 2 years 95% will probably be settled.
So that leaves 5% of defaulted loans unresolved so probably 100% loss.
I have over 200 loans so say 10% default and 5% of that 10% unresolved after 2 years that would be 1 loan . (I would only hold 30% max to term)
As I put maximum of .8% of capital (at the moment) into any loan that can"t be sold that would be a tiny amount.
Count your whole portfollio as one loan and the gains as the return and you will never be disappointed if aggressively diversified with minimum individual loan investmet.
Bonus payment on those that do repay goes a long way to offset those that don't give full recovery
As this thread has highlighted, almost 50% of LY’s loan book is in default (more if you call <0 days a default). If you were aggressively diversified then 50% of your invested capital would be (mentally) written off. 2 years later a proportion of it would actually be written off (using the 2 year rule) and the rest would be stuck in an endless “no progress” loop. Quite how that wouldn’t leave you disappointed I don’t know. Quite how LY can continue to call that an “investment” I also don’t know. As I said only 30% ever held to due date. Take the Holistic approach don't fester on very long term under performers forget them.
To expect property loans to pay on the day is ludacris. Ask anyone buying or selling a house or arranging a loan. I suggest 25-50% of the original loan term before being deemed in default.
On saying that as my loans in Lendy get paid I am removing funds and investing elswhere.
A sobering thought dropped £20000 in 3 days on S&S but still up overall . Just have to wait a little longer to recover.
P2P has never made me an overall loss either
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Post by loftankerman on Oct 13, 2018 14:58:36 GMT
As this thread has highlighted, almost 50% of LY’s loan book is in default (more if you call <0 days a default). If you were aggressively diversified then 50% of your invested capital would be (mentally) written off. 2 years later a proportion of it would actually be written off (using the 2 year rule) and the rest would be stuck in an endless “no progress” loop. Quite how that wouldn’t leave you disappointed I don’t know. Quite how LY can continue to call that an “investment” I also don’t know. As I said only 30% ever held to due date. Take the Holistic approach don't fester on very long term under performers forget them.
To expect property loans to pay on the day is ludacris. Ask anyone buying or selling a house or arranging a loan. I suggest 25-50% of the original loan term before being deemed in default.
On saying that as my loans in Lendy get paid I am removing funds and investing elswhere.
A sobering thought dropped £20000 in 3 days on S&S but still up overall . Just have to wait a little longer to recover.
P2P has never made me an overall loss either
I couldn't agree more. I have seen a lot of P2P loans outside Lendy and anyone having the expectation of borrowing for just 6 months with a proposed exit strategy being a refinance or sale of the security would realistically have needed to start working on both options pretty much from day 1. It always seems that by the time realisation has dawned on the borrower, whatever the term, it is always too late to meet the due date. I have only ever had one pay up on time and I was amazed it happened.
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rocky1
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Post by rocky1 on Oct 17, 2018 18:19:53 GMT
2 more suspended,small tranches not filling,lendy wealth dried up,down to a few hundred active lenders.nothing can get refinanced as every bloody valuation is millions of pounds out.nothing but extensions for enhanced planning/prof fees/lendy fees/etc.funding for all these loans is almost at a stand still as even newer lenders realise now what a complete mess the big loan book is in.more slipping into IA which is non performing as i see it.lendy what a bloody mess and lots more to come by the looks of it.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on Oct 17, 2018 21:42:18 GMT
2 more suspended,small tranches not filling,lendy wealth dried up,down to a few hundred active lenders.nothing can get refinanced as every bloody valuation is millions of pounds out.nothing but extensions for enhanced planning/prof fees/lendy fees/etc.funding for all these loans is almost at a stand still as even newer lenders realise now what a complete mess the big loan book is in.more slipping into IA which is non performing as i see it.lendy what a bloody mess and lots more to come by the looks of it. Where can you see the number of active lender? Where can you see the trend as well?
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star dust
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Post by star dust on Oct 17, 2018 21:49:09 GMT
2 more suspended,small tranches not filling,lendy wealth dried up,down to a few hundred active lenders.nothing can get refinanced as every bloody valuation is millions of pounds out.nothing but extensions for enhanced planning/prof fees/lendy fees/etc.funding for all these loans is almost at a stand still as even newer lenders realise now what a complete mess the big loan book is in.more slipping into IA which is non performing as i see it.lendy what a bloody mess and lots more to come by the looks of it. Where can you see the number of active lender? Where can you see the trend as well? Loan page "Investors so far" for example this is 143 on DFL003 - Tranche 17. Trend is just by looking at older loans - for example two circa £2m loans DFL032 Investors so far 1522 and DFL014 Investors so far 2503 (for the avoidance of doubt I am looking at the historic time factor here not saying anything else about any 'equivalences' in these loans).
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cwah
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Post by cwah on Oct 17, 2018 22:57:45 GMT
Where can you see the number of active lender? Where can you see the trend as well? Loan page "Investors so far" for example this is 143 on DFL003 - Tranche 17. Trend is just by looking at older loans - for example two circa £2m loans DFL032 Investors so far 1522 and DFL014 Investors so far 2503 (for the avoidance of doubt I am looking at the historic time factor here not saying anything else about any 'equivalences' in these loans). Good loans like the woodland or neasden are still filled up. But it looks like there are not many left available...
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Post by p2plender on Oct 17, 2018 23:31:24 GMT
haha "good loans"
heard that one a few times! Good luck with that.
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Post by cashmax on Oct 18, 2018 9:43:36 GMT
All I want is my capital back. For that, I think the professionals need to come in. Not going to happen with these clowns cooking up some discounted deal with the borrower and then selling it to us as the best they could do. It is unrealistic to expect your capital back on a defaulted high risk loan. Occasionally 100% capital recovery may occur but for 12% interest loans I think you should expect 50 -75% I'm sorry, but I really have a problem with that statement. You are suggesting that one should expect to loose 50-70% capital recovery on all defaulted secured loans. That's half the entire loan book, so one should be expecting up to a 38% capital loss overall, after full capital & interest return on the "good loans" I don't think so. I'm assuming you haven't invested then, because on your figures there would be no way to avoid a significant loss? On an investment platform like this that uses secured assets, the interest should be the risk element, not the capital. The single value add that Lendy claim to bring to the party is due diligence i.e. the integrity of the borrower, their plans and the valuation. If they had got just the last element correct, then capital loses should be minimal. There will of course be the odd one that slips through the net, but to suggest that you should expect to loose 30 -50% on all defaulted loans is ridiculous. Just think about what you have written, "for a 12% interest loan, you should expect only a 50-75% recovery on defaulted loans" really?  ?? Your figures suggest that if more than 12% of loans default you can't make money??? Even their own (badly) manipulated figures say that they have more than 12% of 6 month old defaulted loans. Lendy claim that they are experts in Due Diligence. They have proved to me that they are the worst platform I have used for this. They can't even get a valuation right. Lendy claim that the recovery process takes 2 - 6 months. Yea right. Lendy claim that LTV ratios never exceed 70%. Thats a lie.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Oct 18, 2018 11:35:39 GMT
Loan page "Investors so far" for example this is 143 on DFL003 - Tranche 17. DFL003 up to tranche 16 (i.e. the main loan) shows 3900 investors, and most of those would already have adequate exposure to this loan, so relatively unsurprising that there are relatively few investors in the umpteenth tranche of a loan that has "always" been widely available.
I'd tend to think that DFL037 would be a better measure as the only new loan to have been launched recently. This has 617 investors so far in the main loan, and 224 in tranche 2 (unclear how much overlap between the two groups until the loans merge). However, this gives a low estimate, as any available loan parts in either get snapped up the moment they become available, indicating there are plenty more investors who want a piece of it and/or that existing investors have not yet reached their desired esposure level. It remains to be see how many investors DFL037 will get before it reaches the point of being consistently available on the secondary market so that all interested investors can be assumed to have a piece.
PBL200 is the next most-recent "new" loan and I would think can reasonably be assumed to give a measure of the number of currently active investors - it is sufficiently recent that older investors who have been running down their loan book rather than actively divesting won't have a piece, and has an amount available on the SM (so that everyone who is interested in buying can be assumed to have done so), with a sufficiently short queue that those who want to exit can be assumed to have done so. This shows 1017 investors so far, and I think is the best indication of the number of active investors.
PBL199 pre-dates it a little, but with a high estimate as it also includes investors who were attracted by the cashback incentive - it has 2717 investors so far but has now developed a long queue on the SM, so some investors probably consider themselves "trapped" in this loan.
PBL201 doesn't really count, as it's "really" just PBL199 tranche 2, but without the cashback incentive, and with poorer access to the security. I'm surprised it's even attracted as many as 458 investors on its present terms.
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TitoPuente
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Post by TitoPuente on Oct 18, 2018 12:58:07 GMT
It is unrealistic to expect your capital back on a defaulted high risk loan. Occasionally 100% capital recovery may occur but for 12% interest loans I think you should expect 50 -75% I'm sorry, but I really have a problem with that statement. You are suggesting that one should expect to loose 50-70% capital recovery on all defaulted secured loans. That's half the entire loan book, so one should be expecting up to a 38% capital loss overall, after full capital & interest return on the "good loans" I don't think so. I'm assuming you haven't invested then, because on your figures there would be no way to avoid a significant loss? On an investment platform like this that uses secured assets, the interest should be the risk element, not the capital. The single value add that Lendy claim to bring to the party is due diligence i.e. the integrity of the borrower, their plans and the valuation. If they had got just the last element correct, then capital loses should be minimal. There will of course be the odd one that slips through the net, but to suggest that you should expect to loose 30 -50% on all defaulted loans is ridiculous. Just think about what you have written, "for a 12% interest loan, you should expect only a 50-75% recovery on defaulted loans" really? ?? Your figures suggest that if more than 12% of loans default you can't make money??? Even their own (badly) manipulated figures say that they have more than 12% of 6 month old defaulted loans. Lendy claim that they are experts in Due Diligence. They have proved to me that they are the worst platform I have used for this. They can't even get a valuation right. Lendy claim that the recovery process takes 2 - 6 months. Yea right. Lendy claim that LTV ratios never exceed 70%. Thats a lie. Don’t waste your keyboard. Some here don’t have the concept of what secured lending is and repeat “your capital is at risk” like a mantra. They are not happy until they get hit by big loses. It probably feels like a rite of passage to them.
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?? Your figures suggest that if more than 12% of loans default you can't make money??? Even their own (badly) manipulated figures say that they have more than 12% of 6 month old defaulted loans. 