adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 6, 2019 18:58:15 GMT
Samford...
You're not suggesting that, just perhaps, Brexit couldn't possibly ever fix the UK's problems, simply because they're the UK's internal problems and nothing to do with the EU...?
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starfished
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Post by starfished on Apr 6, 2019 23:33:31 GMT
As someone who lives and works in London and voted Remain (I know, ); I can see a fair argument that while the EU were not the cause of UK internal issues, being in the EU did not give enough of an incentive for UK governments to try and fix those internal problems. The economic fallout from Brexit in many ways will force them to try. If the will had been there and Government's less short sighted, I think the less painful path would have been to try and solve those problems while in the EU but I am not sure the will was ever there nor would be without a shock.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Apr 7, 2019 1:14:08 GMT
Diane Abbot just said if there was another referendum leave would win again. The way she handles statistics the the remainers should be very happy
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2019 14:27:54 GMT
The UK leaving the EU Customs Union or equivalent substitute would mean breaking the Good Friday Irish arrangements which have the status of internationally binding treaty. This has meant that all the effort put into Brexit has been a waste of time as May has been trying to achieve something that is not possible under international treaty law. The freewheeling free trade agreements scenario painted by the Brexiteers is not possible unless Northern Ireland and Rest of UK have different international trading arrangements, hence the need for the backstop in May’s EU agreement. May should have ‘fessed’ up on this as soon as she took office and should have shown the leadership expected of a Prime Minister and given the country the straight facts. Brexit is primarily a Cameron foul up but she has given it legs and allowed it to run because she did not explain to the country about Ireland at the outset. Still at this late stage in the proceedings she will not come clean with the country over Ireland because of the problems it would cause with her hardline Tory Brexiteers. Neither will the hardline Tory Brexiteers come clean about this. Until somebody grows up and starts telling the truth about Brexit, the politicians will just keep going round in circles trying to find a solution that is not possible.
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Apr 7, 2019 15:34:28 GMT
I am not an international lawyer but it seems to me that the UK would not breach the GFA it it did not impose a hard border - which it has said it wouldn't. The EU can't breach the GFA because they are not party to it. That leaves the Irish. They would be caught between two treaties and maybe could only avoid breaking one by leaving the EU as well.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Apr 7, 2019 15:55:38 GMT
Even if I thought UKIP were the country's saviour there's no way I would ever vote for Neil Hamilton. I agree and I think a lot of voters (me included) who previously voted for ukip on occasion when farage was running things as a right of centre party would not vote for them now as they seem to have moved to the extreme right and are thus toxic as far as I'm concerned. Even as it was, it was too concerned with Dailymail style immigrant and "illegals" type of topic for my liking. I'm guessing that is one reason why the new Brexit party has been formed but it is so new I do wonder if the Leave vote will likely be split between the two. At least the Euro elections are PR based so the overall number of leave MEPs should reflect reality.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 7, 2019 16:00:37 GMT
Even if I thought UKIP were the country's saviour there's no way I would ever vote for Neil Hamilton. I agree and I think a lot of voters (me included) who previously voted for ukip on occasion when farage was running things as a right of centre party would not vote for them now as they seem to have moved to the extreme right and are thus toxic as far as I'm concerned. Even as it was, it was too concerned with Dailymail style immigrant and "illegals" type of topic for my liking. I'm guessing that is one reason why the new Brexit party has been formed but it is so new I do wonder if the Leave vote will likely be split between the two. At least the Euro elections are PR based so the overall number of leave MEPs should reflect reality. I could see Leave voters voting for UKIP or the Brexit party in the Euro elections, to put two fingers up to the two main parties and the EU (basically why would Leavers care what 'damage' UKIP/Brexit might do in the EU?)
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Apr 7, 2019 16:25:07 GMT
I am not an international lawyer but it seems to me that the UK would not breach the GFA it it did not impose a hard border - which it has said it wouldn't. The EU can't breach the GFA because they are not party to it. That leaves the Irish. They would be caught between two treaties and maybe could only avoid breaking one by leaving the EU as well. I do find the current EU position somewhat confusing (assuming they genuinely want a deal, rather than just punish us for leaving). They are telling everyone who will listen that no deal is getting more likely, which appears to leave them with 2 options:
- No deal, no money, no backstop, or
- A deal, £39bn, no backstop
All the EU need to do is decide what they will do at the border under a no deal scenario, and write that into the WA in place of the backstop. That would get the DUP on board, and they would probably bring enough with them to get TM's deal through. I quite like the idea of an open border, and then any goods going from the republic to the other 26 EU countries get checked at the border on arrival.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 7, 2019 16:57:11 GMT
Woah, hold on a sec... The EU have a deal they're happy with. They came away from the two and a half years of negotiations all agreeing that it was a deal that they're happy to go forward based on, ready to sign in plenty of time for 29th March. It's Westminster that's fannying about, unable to decide whether it wants this negotiated deal, No Deal, or something else entirely that isn't actually currently on the table. What'll happen at the border under No Deal? Simple. There'll be a hard border, just the same as between the EU and any other adjoining country outside the customs union - say, Poland to Belarus, or Latvia to Russia, or Hungary to Serbia. What else...? That's kinda the whole "No Deal" thing... There's a fairly hefty clue in the name... Except it's the "having a hard border" bit that would breach the GFA. Of course, it'd be the UK at fault, not the RoI/EU - simply because it's the UK that's walking away from a workable solution that'll keep the border open, which is in the negotiated deal.
The DUP won't support the negotiated deal because it treats NI differently to GB, which is a very bad thing - except when it allows NI to do things they want, such as banning abortion or gay marriage, then it's obviously absolutely essential. The ERG hate the negotiated deal because it leaves part of the UK within the EU customs union indefinitely. They insist the UK should have unilateral power to cancel that, conveniently forgetting that the EU are insisting on it being a joint decision precisely in order to protect the Republic of Ireland from the whims of UK politicians. But the ERG have now decided that's not actually that big a problem, and cheerfully forgot their principled objections in time to vote for it anyway on the third time around.
Remember, the RoI joined the EEC on the same day as the UK did. Post-brexit will be the first time one's been in and one's been out.
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Apr 7, 2019 19:22:16 GMT
Woah, hold on a sec... The EU have a deal they're happy with. They came away from the two and a half years of negotiations all agreeing that it was a deal that they're happy to go forward based on, ready to sign in plenty of time for 29th March. It's Westminster that's fannying about, unable to decide whether it wants this negotiated deal, No Deal, or something else entirely that isn't actually currently on the table.What'll happen at the border under No Deal? Simple. There'll be a hard border, just the same as between the EU and any other adjoining country outside the customs union - say, Poland to Belarus, or Latvia to Russia, or Hungary to Serbia. What else...? That's kinda the whole "No Deal" thing... There's a fairly hefty clue in the name... Except it's the "having a hard border" bit that would breach the GFA. Of course, it'd be the UK at fault, not the RoI/EU - simply because it's the UK that's walking away from a workable solution that'll keep the border open, which is in the negotiated deal.
The DUP won't support the negotiated deal because it treats NI differently to GB, which is a very bad thing - except when it allows NI to do things they want, such as banning abortion or gay marriage, then it's obviously absolutely essential.
The ERG hate the negotiated deal because it leaves part of the UK within the EU customs union indefinitely. They insist the UK should have unilateral power to cancel that, conveniently forgetting that the EU are insisting on it being a joint decision precisely in order to protect the Republic of Ireland from the whims of UK politicians. But the ERG have now decided that's not actually that big a problem, and cheerfully forgot their principled objections in time to vote for it anyway on the third time around.
Remember, the RoI joined the EEC on the same day as the UK did. Post-brexit will be the first time one's been in and one's been out. You may be right, but it will be the EU forcing the ROI to build it and police it so how does that make the UK break the GFA?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 7, 2019 21:38:20 GMT
Woah, hold on a sec... The EU have a deal they're happy with. They came away from the two and a half years of negotiations all agreeing that it was a deal that they're happy to go forward based on, ready to sign in plenty of time for 29th March. It's Westminster that's fannying about, unable to decide whether it wants this negotiated deal, No Deal, or something else entirely that isn't actually currently on the table.What'll happen at the border under No Deal? Simple. There'll be a hard border, just the same as between the EU and any other adjoining country outside the customs union - say, Poland to Belarus, or Latvia to Russia, or Hungary to Serbia. What else...? That's kinda the whole "No Deal" thing... There's a fairly hefty clue in the name... Except it's the "having a hard border" bit that would breach the GFA. Of course, it'd be the UK at fault, not the RoI/EU - simply because it's the UK that's walking away from a workable solution that'll keep the border open, which is in the negotiated deal.
The DUP won't support the negotiated deal because it treats NI differently to GB, which is a very bad thing - except when it allows NI to do things they want, such as banning abortion or gay marriage, then it's obviously absolutely essential.
The ERG hate the negotiated deal because it leaves part of the UK within the EU customs union indefinitely. They insist the UK should have unilateral power to cancel that, conveniently forgetting that the EU are insisting on it being a joint decision precisely in order to protect the Republic of Ireland from the whims of UK politicians. But the ERG have now decided that's not actually that big a problem, and cheerfully forgot their principled objections in time to vote for it anyway on the third time around.
Remember, the RoI joined the EEC on the same day as the UK did. Post-brexit will be the first time one's been in and one's been out. You may be right, but it will be the EU forcing the ROI to build it and police it so how does that make the UK break the GFA? Because it'd be the UK government unilaterally and voluntarily changing the status quo, introducing the requirement for a border. BTW, the UK would also need to enforce the border in the event of No Deal. I thought "taking back control of our borders" was a good thing...? For the avoidance of doubt, this wouldn't be a border to prevent tourists wandering across - the Common Travel Area means that'd not be required, just the same as currently between the UK/RoI and various other non-EU territories within the CTA. It'd be a customs border between the EU customs union and a territory outside the union. And, from the other side of the fence, between the UK and an external territory with whom the UK doesn't have any kind of customs union. Mind you, how long before a post-Brexit post-GFA RoI decides that the CTA is less important than Schengen is another question, especially if a post-Brexit independent Scotland joins the EU, losing the UK's current Schengen opt-out in the process. It's really not hard to see how a post-Brexit disUnited Kingdom could decide to join Schengen, simply because it's preferable to a really hard (passport) border at Gretna.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Apr 7, 2019 23:50:50 GMT
Why should less than 2 million in NI hold the 64 million in the rest of UK to ransom. Neither EU or U.K. said they would impose a hard border. The youth of today on either side of the border don’t want or have the technology to cause any violence in relation to Irish border.
It will be sorted. Peacefully There are lies and Statistics SNP say 60% of Scotland voted to remain. Not true only 40% of those eligible to vote voted to remain. Remain in Scotland equals <5% of uk electorate.
Many large cities had more voting leave than Scotland’s Remainers We must take UK as a whole and respect the vote. Any further votes must have a 60% majority to change the outcome of 2016 vote.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 8, 2019 7:52:19 GMT
There are lies and Statistics SNP say 60% of Scotland voted to remain. Not true only 40% of those eligible to vote voted to remain. On that basis, nationally only 37.5% of the electorate voted Leave. Care to explain why that's necessary now, but wasn't in 2016?
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Apr 8, 2019 8:15:05 GMT
Why should less than 2 million in NI hold the 64 million in the rest of UK to ransom. A lot less than 2 million (precise number about 10).
My views on the voting system during the referendum were the same as the Scottish independence referendum: It is madness to take such an important decision on the basis of a simple majority of those who voted. A system of needing 51% of all eligable voters, or 60% of those that voted would have made more sense from my perspective.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Apr 8, 2019 13:30:07 GMT
Why should less than 2 million in NI hold the 64 million in the rest of UK to ransom. A lot less than 2 million (precise number about 10).
My views on the voting system during the referendum were the same as the Scottish independence referendum: It is madness to take such an important decision on the basis of a simple majority of those who voted. A system of needing 51% of all eligable voters, or 60% of those that voted would have made more sense from my perspective.
I agrree that PR is far better but also has problems. Here in Scotland the Greens and Lib Dems hold the balance.
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