adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 9, 2019 8:30:15 GMT
Why not have PR but where the largest party automatically forms the government? An unpopular minority government that can't get anything through parliament? They'd be reliant on making alliances with other parties, which brings us straight back to the "manifesto" issue littleoldlady mentioned above. It'd just be "confidence and supply", and we can all see how well that currently works.
FWIW, I think 2010 was both the right result for the country at the time and in the context, and has since been shown to have been very successful. The LDs were in a massive minority within the coalition, but subsequent events have shown they punched far above their weight in keeping the Tories nearer a centre-right position. The trouble is that Tory supporters think they did too much of that, while non-Tory supporters think they didn't do enough of it...
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 9, 2019 9:52:51 GMT
Why not have PR but where the largest party automatically forms the government? An unpopular minority government that can't get anything through parliament? They'd be reliant on making alliances with other parties, which brings us straight back to the "manifesto" issue littleoldlady mentioned above. It'd just be "confidence and supply", and we can all see how well that currently works.
FWIW, I think 2010 was both the right result for the country at the time and in the context, and has since been shown to have been very successful. The LDs were in a massive minority within the coalition, but subsequent events have shown they punched far above their weight in keeping the Tories nearer a centre-right position. The trouble is that Tory supporters think they did too much of that, while non-Tory supporters think they didn't do enough of it...
I agree. 2010 provided a stable government and moderated the tendency of the Tories to do anything stupid, like calling a referendum on leaving the EU.
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on Apr 9, 2019 10:43:12 GMT
An unpopular minority government that can't get anything through parliament? They'd be reliant on making alliances with other parties, which brings us straight back to the "manifesto" issue littleoldlady mentioned above. It'd just be "confidence and supply", and we can all see how well that currently works.
FWIW, I think 2010 was both the right result for the country at the time and in the context, and has since been shown to have been very successful. The LDs were in a massive minority within the coalition, but subsequent events have shown they punched far above their weight in keeping the Tories nearer a centre-right position. The trouble is that Tory supporters think they did too much of that, while non-Tory supporters think they didn't do enough of it...
I agree. 2010 provided a stable government and moderated the tendency of the Tories to do anything stupid, like calling a referendum on leaving the EU. Yes, wonder where Cameron got the idea of an in/out referendum from? No-one would be daft enough to have such a proposition in their election manifesto ...
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 9, 2019 11:14:09 GMT
I agree. 2010 provided a stable government and moderated the tendency of the Tories to do anything stupid, like calling a referendum on leaving the EU. Yes, wonder where Cameron got the idea of an in/out referendum from? No-one would be daft enough to have such a proposition in their election manifesto ... Cameron held the referendum as he was worried the Tories were losing votes to UKIP. Given the rate at which the Tories must now be losing votes now, I'm surprised referendums aren't a monthly feature.
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Apr 9, 2019 11:20:53 GMT
There is a school of thought, that if the EU had not sent Cameron back from the initial meetings carrying his own backside and nothing else, the whole process would have ended much better all round.
There are however many schools of thought.
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 9, 2019 11:26:53 GMT
Yes, wonder where Cameron got the idea of an in/out referendum from? No-one would be daft enough to have such a proposition in their election manifesto ... Cameron held the referendum as he was worried the Tories were losing votes to UKIP. Given the rate at which the Tories must now be losing votes now, I'm surprised referendums aren't a monthly feature. That's the second time you've made me laugh today cb25 . Brexit has been the making of you as a comedian!
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on Apr 9, 2019 11:43:32 GMT
Yes, wonder where Cameron got the idea of an in/out referendum from? No-one would be daft enough to have such a proposition in their election manifesto ... Cameron held the referendum as he was worried the Tories were losing votes to UKIP. Given the rate at which the Tories must now be losing votes now, I'm surprised referendums aren't a monthly feature. Think you might have missed the point 😉
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 9, 2019 11:45:46 GMT
There is a school of thought, that if the EU had not sent Cameron back from the initial meetings carrying his own backside and nothing else, the whole process would have ended much better all round. There are however many schools of thought. I thought that too, as that is how the British media portrayed it. But checking back, you can see that the EU did their best to be accomodating and agreed broadly to make the treaty amendments requested. www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35622105So although he's remembered as a sort of amiable pillock, arguably there was nothing he could have got from the EU that would have satisfied the angry public and newspaper proprietors.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 9, 2019 12:40:13 GMT
There is a school of thought, that if the EU had not sent Cameron back from the initial meetings carrying his own backside and nothing else, the whole process would have ended much better all round. There are however many schools of thought. I thought that too, as that is how the British media portrayed it. But checking back, you can see that the EU did their best to be accomodating and agreed broadly to make the treaty amendments requested. www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35622105So although he's remembered as a sort of amiable pillock, arguably there was nothing he could have got from the EU that would have satisfied the angry public and newspaper proprietors. Even the arch-europhobic Telegraph reckoned at the time that he'd pretty much got what he asked for.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Apr 9, 2019 12:48:04 GMT
I think by the end of today we will be well on the road to get a “no deal” exit. Nothing has changed to convince EU we have a grown up bunch of MPs and Lab are never going to accept anything except another GE.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 9, 2019 13:10:07 GMT
I think by the end of today we will be well on the road to get a “no deal” exit. I think we're heading diagonally the opposite direction. Remember a month ago, Parliament rejected No Deal. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47562995Close, sure, but then the first round of indicative votes ROUNDLY rejected it, 400-160 - so roundly, it wasn't even an option in the second round. Don't forget that the Cooper amendment passed into law last night. Its sole aim is to help prevent an "accidental No Deal".
May has already asked for an extension to 30th June, with the option of shortening it, and said that the UK will start preparing for the EU elections. The EU have already signalled they would accept a one year extension, with the option of shortening it, so long as the UK starts preparing for the EU elections. That's really not a heck of a lot of difference, and it'll be astonishing if there isn't a compromise date tomorrow*. Even May is now using "My deal or no brexit" as the threat, rather than "My deal or no deal".
* - and Merkel has now come out with the end of the year as a compromise. Bet that was run past Macron first.
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Apr 9, 2019 14:54:04 GMT
It's true that there are powerful forces at work trying to reverse the democratic decision, and also that the EU has successfully overturned every referendum result that it did not like so far, so it does not look good for leavers. Time will tell.
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Post by samford71 on Apr 9, 2019 15:24:14 GMT
I think by the end of today we will be well on the road to get a “no deal” exit. Well if you really believe that then you can make a killing. A 1 week GBP/USD digital put with a strike at 1.25 is priced at 3.25%. So if on the 16 April GBP/USD is at or below 1.25 then it will pay out 100%. A no deal brexit should see that pretty sharpish. So buying a £1mm payout costs you just £32.5k, over 30:1. Very nice leverage. That might even outperform your exceptional P2P returns ....
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Apr 9, 2019 15:56:00 GMT
I think by the end of today we will be well on the road to get a “no deal” exit. Well if you really believe that then you can make a killing. A 1 week GBP/USD digital put with a strike at 1.25 is priced at 3.25%. So if on the 16 April GBP/USD is at or below 1.25 then it will pay out 100%. A no deal brexit should see that pretty sharpish. So buying a £1mm payout costs you just £32.5k, over 30:1. Very nice leverage. That might even outperform your exceptional P2P returns .... Turkish Lira always one to watch
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 9, 2019 16:43:36 GMT
It's true that there are powerful forces at work trying to reverse the democratic decision The decision was hardly "democratic". Remember, the Leave campaign have now admitted multiple breaches of electoral law. I'm still not sure how "more democracy" is "undemocratic", though. No, they haven't. If you're meaning things like the Irish referendum on the Lisbon treaty, the second referendum was on a treaty that had been changed to reflect Irish concerns in several different areas. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/5579684/Ireland-to-hold-second-referendum-on-Lisbon-Treaty.html"The Taoiseach, who held private talks with Gordon Brown yesterday, won guarantees from European Union leaders that Irish policies on tax, abortion and military neutrality would not be affected by Ireland ratifying the treaty. "If there is a second (third) EU membership referendum, then it'll be on a different question. 2016 was "Do you want to leave?". Another would be "We've spent three years negotiating as a result of your decision, and this is what Leave will look like. Are you still sure?"If "the will of the people" really IS to leave, still, then what's to fear from asking them? Of course, if you don't think that they'd say "Yep, still sure", then are you not admitting that the whole "will of the people" thing might not actually still hold true? And if the "will of the people" really has changed, then wouldn't continuing to leave be the anti-democratic move...? With that in mind, isn't "No, don't you dare ask!" actually the anti-democratic move? Let's face it, the people have been asked if they've changed their minds about their MP more often than once every three years (rapidly heading for a third time in four years) - and let's not even mention how often those MPs have been asked if they've changed their mind over the deal that's the result of two and a half years of negotiation following that referendum result (maybe a fourth time in three months). And, after all, parliamentary sovereignty is a good thing, right?
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