registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 10, 2019 20:06:53 GMT
A good video from CGP Grey on Brexit, Ireland, the backstop (though it's not actually mentioned) etc.
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Post by martin44 on Mar 10, 2019 20:23:41 GMT
Brexiteers don't want a war or a fight with either the EU or the remoaner minority; all we require is a good leave deal, that is fair, balanced & equitable to both sides & that everyone can accept & move forward in a collaborative yet independent way but our generosity, tolerance & benevolence has certain limits, being denied democracy & forced to remain is beyond that line & should anyone think that would be an acceptable outcome then they are very misguided & if the politicians force that through then we will stand & fight, using whatever means necessary to assert the result & please be in no doubt we will win & we will leave.
Well, that last discussion of what the "Brexit Divorce Bill" is made up of is a bit dull, so let's backtrack to something much more exciting. I'm assuming that Butch here will have to start experimenting with the petrol bombs pretty soon. And then what, go to that there London and loot a shop? Sorry, overthrow the Government! I can imagine all the free bus passes being waved assertively at the barrier in Parliament Square. The government will flee, and Butch and the Brexit hoards will DECLARE INDEPENDENCE! I can't wait. Butch should expect no more, nor no less than the uk (yes you people in scotland.. and captainconfident ) voted for.
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 10, 2019 20:26:42 GMT
You going to join Butch in a ski mask and camo jacket, throwing things at the police? If you don't get your way, that is, and who can tell. You'll concede, martin44 , that there is an even chance in the current circumstances that Brexit is blocked by something. Amazing, with 19 days to go that we don't know what will happen. In 19 days my business may have to stop trading with the UK as the customs and excise procedures have changed and we have not been informed what it might be except in the vaguest terms.I took a punt on the pound at 1.12 to the Euro, and if it drops to 1:1 I'll lose about 8 grand, but if it goes over 1.24, it's the other way. Having studied Brexit a lot, I thought I might try to turn a profit on it. JRM gave me inspiration when his firm shifted funds to Dublin. Clear eyed analysis of the current situation here: chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/ flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2019/03/06/brexit-where-do-we-go-from-here/ linked to from brexitblog, has an easy to follow decision tree about 1/3 way down page, showing the steps to No Deal and Canada Plus, Ukraine option, Norway with reference to customs union and single market. Handy. And a flow chart for the votes this Tuesday-Thursday, s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/maven-user-photos/mishtalk/economics/zmfATcSa4EegwR7v_znq6Q/jWli6m4IQ0GmUGaIdouGrg
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Post by martin44 on Mar 10, 2019 20:51:38 GMT
You going to join Butch in a ski mask and camo jacket, throwing things at the police? If you don't get your way, that is, and who can tell. You'll concede, martin44 , that there is an even chance in the current circumstances that Brexit is blocked by something. Amazing, with 19 days to go that we don't know what will happen. In 19 days my business may have to stop trading with the UK as the customs and excise procedures have changed and we have not been informed what it might be except in the vaguest terms.I took a punt on the pound at 1.12 to the Euro, and if it drops to 1:1 I'll lose about 8 grand, but if it goes over 1.24, it's the other way. Having studied Brexit a lot, I thought I might try to turn a profit on it. JRM gave me inspiration when his firm shifted funds to Dublin. I won't be joining anyone thanks, least of all the representation you seem to support, like butch, i do however expect the uk parliament to deliver what the electorate voted for.
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copacetic
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Post by copacetic on Mar 10, 2019 23:56:09 GMT
My predictions for the votes next week and the next couple of months. Most likely I'll be totally wrong but it will be interesting to see! May's deal is voted down again on Tuesday. Brexit is delayed until June in the vote on Wednesday. Over the next few months there'll be a lot more negotiating but nothing about the deal will change substantially. There will be increasing pressure for a second referendum. EU elections will be held on 23rd May. Farage's Brexit Party will gain a large number of seats at the expense of the Conservative and Labour parties and incite some panic in both major parties about their chances in the next domestic elections.
Anyone else care to guess what will happen next week?
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 11, 2019 9:16:14 GMT
Anyone else care to guess what will happen next week?
May's deal voted down again (it's dead and unchanged), no-deal exit voted down, extension voted for (have to be short to avoid us having to vote in EU elections, that would be massive fun), 50% chance Tory party implodes by the end of the month, May resigns/is jettisoned (can't be a formal move against her, but she'll be told she doesn't have the support of the party), GE called...Labour get in as millions of Tory voters desert the party.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Mar 11, 2019 11:29:30 GMT
A UK hobbled by division and incompetence --> GE --> Hung Parliament. No bad thing IMHO. I'm also OK with a bit of anarchy too tbh. Not ideal, and I say this from a position of relative immunity to the fall out, but honestly I'm laughing so hard at all the talk of revolution against the "elites" I kind of want to see some action now before I wet myself
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Godanubis
Member of DD Central
Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Mar 11, 2019 14:53:27 GMT
All will be sorted tomorrow
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 11, 2019 15:52:19 GMT
Looks like it wasn't Project Fear - It was Project Not Fearful Enough "the hit to London was bigger than expected and would get worse" 'Brexit 'sees UK finance firms move £900bn to Europe' www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47522347
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 11, 2019 16:12:15 GMT
Looks like it wasn't Project Fear - It was Project Not Fearful Enough "the hit to London was bigger than expected and would get worse" 'Brexit 'sees UK finance firms move £900bn to Europe' www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47522347Well, on the bright side property in London will become more affordable. The majority of the wealth and jobs are apparently doing a Mogg and have been transferred to Ireland. There must be some benefit to living next to a rich neighbour? Maybe they can use their new tax receipts to buy Northern Ireland and solve the Brexit conundrum?
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Mar 11, 2019 16:21:13 GMT
Looks like it wasn't Project Fear - It was Project Not Fearful Enough "the hit to London was bigger than expected and would get worse" 'Brexit 'sees UK finance firms move £900bn to Europe' www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47522347Well, on the bright side property in London will become more affordable. The majority of the wealth and jobs are apparently doing a Mogg and have been transferred to Ireland. There must be some benefit to living next to a rich neighbour? Maybe they can use their new tax receipts to buy Northern Ireland and solve the Brexit conundrum? Yeah , well if they ask for 15% loan to fund the purchase , just check their collateral thoroughly.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 11, 2019 16:25:49 GMT
Looks like it wasn't Project Fear - It was Project Not Fearful Enough "the hit to London was bigger than expected and would get worse" 'Brexit 'sees UK finance firms move £900bn to Europe' www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47522347"A report into the impact of Brexit on banking and finance firms says some £900bn in financial firms' assets have been moved out of the UK. It adds this has cost £3bn-4bn and involves 5,000 expected staff moves or local hires, and that figure will rise"
Need to look on the bright side. People politically in the centre or on the left are always banging on about reducing the size of the City and re-balancing the economy, so they should be happy and it's probably reduced the number of Remainers by 5,000
As to the lost tax revenue, we could always recoup it by cancelling the 'foreign government bung fund' (sometimes incorrectly called Foreign Aid)
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 11, 2019 17:47:36 GMT
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 11, 2019 18:12:26 GMT
I'm not tagged, but my answer to that is "Yes" if we are still in a CU with the EU on 1st Jan 2021 for whatever reason.
(And May's deal, as currently constituted, makes it hard to see that we will be able to run an independent trade policy in that timeframe, if ever.)
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 11, 2019 18:27:19 GMT
captainconfident Betrayed? Probably not, as implementing a non-party referendum result (I don't see it as a Tory-only subject) was always going to be difficult with our current party-lead system and with MPs being pro-Remain by a huge margin.
I'm old enough that I shouldn't be surprised - but I have been surprised - at how much MPs are willing to say one thing and basically do the exact opposite. So I guess I'll go with hugely disappointed rather than betrayed. (Btw I would be massively surprised though if Theresa May's deal passes tomorrow)
Not just from Brexit, but I won't be voting Tory any time in the foreseeable future.
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