IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Apr 2, 2019 21:04:39 GMT
I genuinely don't see any way forward.
The logical step is for a long delay to be requested & agreed next week, GE + Euro elections on 23rd May (Tory Manifesto on Brexit = May's Deal.), but that requires c. 1/3 of Tory's to vote for the disolution of parliament, more if TIG and a few labour MPs are worried about their seats and vote against. Otherwise it needs Corbyn to call a no-confidence vote.
For the reasons outlined in my previous post, I don't think its viable for the government to request an extension based on (say) CU+SM+PV being included in the political declaration, with minimal tory support for such a strategy, it would rupture the tory party (that said, the political declaration isn't binding)
I can't see MV4 getting us anywhere other than a 4th rejection, and revoke simply isn't tenable politically.
Which leaves "no deal", which some credible senior torys (Phil Hammond, Alister Burt) have said May will not allow to happen, and yet it remains the legal default ...
As I said quite some time ago, we aren't leaving with no deal. I think that's what May said tonight.
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Post by martin44 on Apr 2, 2019 21:05:12 GMT
I'm glad someone can still concoct a prediction, my brain is increasingly turning to mush when trying some logical reasoning ! I held off commenting on this post until today's efforts were known, but the point I'm about to make would have been as valid last week as it is today.
Forget the technical detail of what the 8 indicative vote motions last week were expressing or the 4 today, just sit back and look at the coloured charts of the labour vs tory splits on each vote (the BBC live page has one of todays votes timed at 22:30) - on each of the 12 motions the vast majority of the blue is on one side and the vast majority of the red is on other side. This doesn't strike me as a conventional "coalescing of opinion". Maybe after a few more rounds of this process there will be a majority for something similiar to one of the 12 options consdered recently. But that "something" will actually have been supported by a majority of opposition MP's and a relatively small number of Tory MP's.
Nick Boles has resigned the tory whip this evening, because his colleagues "will not compromise". But that misses the point, concocting a majority in HoC for "something" isn't sustainable if a majority of Tory MP's are fundamentally opposed to it conceptually. If the HoC tries to force the PM to implement the "something", then in effect we would be in the situation of the government implementing opposition policy not government policy given minimal tory support for the "something".
But remember no one 'won' the election and we have a hung parliament, so not a surprise if sometimes (especially with controversial policies) government can't get its way. In the old days government would resign in this situation, but fixed term parliamnet act (and modern politics) has changed things somewhat. I beg to differ, the Tory party won the election, albeit with a far smaller majority than they actually held prior to the 2017 GE, but nevertheless, they did win the GE with regards to "which party won most seats" , unfortunately they did not win a majority, which is different to "No one won".
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Apr 2, 2019 21:07:04 GMT
After tonight's proceedings we find ourselves in the exact same position as the last "The house takes control to find consensus" it is quite obvious to anyone with a "Leave" brain or a "Remain" brain, that consensus cannot and will not be achieved around any alternative proposal with an acceptable majority, Nick Boles has resigned, which was almost nailed on after his proposal was rejected, given the fact that he had lost support of his constituency party last week. I have been a long time (Soft) admirer of Mark Francois, his comments tonight were IMO exactly right, given the position we now find the UK in, "Our default position is to leave the EU on April 12th, we should just leave". I am certainly not any kind of parliamentary expert, indeed the opposite, but if nothing further is achieved on Wednesday, then i hope Teresa may (who i admire considerably) will put forward to parliament a simple vote as follows.. ON APRIL THE 12TH. A. We leave the EU with MY deal. B. We leave the EU with NO deal. No more extensions. I don't agree that is right. There would be a majority in the House for a soft Brexit plan of some sort (CU most likely, but could be CM 2.0) plus a confirmatory referendum.
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Apr 2, 2019 21:10:06 GMT
I genuinely don't see any way forward.
The logical step is for a long delay to be requested & agreed next week, GE + Euro elections on 23rd May (Tory Manifesto on Brexit = May's Deal.), but that requires c. 1/3 of Tory's to vote for the disolution of parliament, more if TIG and a few labour MPs are worried about their seats and vote against. Otherwise it needs Corbyn to call a no-confidence vote.
For the reasons outlined in my previous post, I don't think its viable for the government to request an extension based on (say) CU+SM+PV being included in the political declaration, with minimal tory support for such a strategy, it would rupture the tory party (that said, the political declaration isn't binding)
I can't see MV4 getting us anywhere other than a 4th rejection, and revoke simply isn't tenable politically.
Which leaves "no deal", which some credible senior torys (Phil Hammond, Alister Burt) have said May will not allow to happen, and yet it remains the legal default ...
As I said quite some time ago, we aren't leaving with no deal. I think that's what May said tonight. We are arguably only one 'grumpy EU leader' away from doing just that.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Apr 2, 2019 21:12:00 GMT
But remember no one 'won' the election and we have a hung parliament, so not a surprise if sometimes (especially with controversial policies) government can't get its way. In the old days government would resign in this situation, but fixed term parliamnet act (and modern politics) has changed things somewhat. I beg to differ, the Tory party won the election, albeit with a far smaller majority than they actually held prior to the 2017 GE, but nevertheless, they did win the GE with regards to "which party won most seats" , unfortunately they did not win a majority, which is different to "No one won". I don't see how losing your majority is winning an election. I also don't see how one is supposed to have a duty to implement the manifesto that you stood on in said election where you lost your majority and that was rejected by most of the electorate. May seems to be coming around to this somewhat belatedly.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Apr 2, 2019 21:12:33 GMT
As I said quite some time ago, we aren't leaving with no deal. I think that's what May said tonight. We are arguably only one 'grumpy EU leader' away from doing just that. I stand by my prediction - we aren't leaving with no deal.
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Post by martin44 on Apr 2, 2019 21:14:54 GMT
I genuinely don't see any way forward.
The logical step is for a long delay to be requested & agreed next week, GE + Euro elections on 23rd May (Tory Manifesto on Brexit = May's Deal.), but that requires c. 1/3 of Tory's to vote for the disolution of parliament, more if TIG and a few labour MPs are worried about their seats and vote against. Otherwise it needs Corbyn to call a no-confidence vote.
For the reasons outlined in my previous post, I don't think its viable for the government to request an extension based on (say) CU+SM+PV being included in the political declaration, with minimal tory support for such a strategy, it would rupture the tory party (that said, the political declaration isn't binding)
I can't see MV4 getting us anywhere other than a 4th rejection, and revoke simply isn't tenable politically.
Which leaves "no deal", which some credible senior torys (Phil Hammond, Alister Burt) have said May will not allow to happen, and yet it remains the legal default ...
As I said quite some time ago, we aren't leaving with no deal. I think that's what May said tonight. Agreed.. personally i'm very disappointed, i never viewed it as no deal, i viewed it as the world wide standard WTO deal, which is what TM has been offering for the last 2 years... "No deal is better than a bad deal" and "We are leaving the EU on march 29th" .. today is the day she lost her bottle, god help us if Corbyn gets control of proceedings here in.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Apr 2, 2019 21:23:02 GMT
Wrt to the need to compromise that people are always talking about (presumably because Leave won by only 52%-48%, albeit 1m+ difference) - I wonder what would have happened if Remain had won 52%-48%. Would they have said "we won, but 48% wanted to Leave so we do need to distance ourselves somewhat from the EU" or (more likely imo) would they have said "we won, get over it, no changes".
I'd like to see a GE a) for the fun of seeing parties trying to come up with a clear Brexit policy they could all stand behind and b) because I think a lot of them are overdue an appointment with the unemployment office (or whatever it's called these days)
It would have reinforced and validated the UK's position of the last 30 years of negotiating opt outs from many aspects of the EU that we did not like (Euro, Schengen etc) It was BECAUSE there was a sizeable Eurosceptic/Leave opinion that we had ALREADY distanced ourselves. We would have implemented Cameron's further opt outs including from "ever closer union". And we would likely have implemented some of the restrictions on residence etc available to us under FoM like the Belgians do. I very much doubt there would have been the same sort of "you lost get over it", "remoaner", "traitor", "saboteur", "citizen of nowhere" rhetoric that all remain voters have had to endure. Instead, I think there would have been a genuine shock and an attempt (or at least the appearance of an attempt) to address the underlying issues that had led to such a close vote.
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Post by martin44 on Apr 2, 2019 21:23:52 GMT
After tonight's proceedings we find ourselves in the exact same position as the last "The house takes control to find consensus" it is quite obvious to anyone with a "Leave" brain or a "Remain" brain, that consensus cannot and will not be achieved around any alternative proposal with an acceptable majority, Nick Boles has resigned, which was almost nailed on after his proposal was rejected, given the fact that he had lost support of his constituency party last week. I have been a long time (Soft) admirer of Mark Francois, his comments tonight were IMO exactly right, given the position we now find the UK in, "Our default position is to leave the EU on April 12th, we should just leave". I am certainly not any kind of parliamentary expert, indeed the opposite, but if nothing further is achieved on Wednesday, then i hope Teresa may (who i admire considerably) will put forward to parliament a simple vote as follows.. ON APRIL THE 12TH. A. We leave the EU with MY deal. B. We leave the EU with NO deal. No more extensions. I don't agree that is right. There would be a majority in the House for a soft Brexit plan of some sort (CU most likely, but could be CM 2.0) plus a confirmatory referendum. That appears now to be correct, it will certainly be interesting over the coming days to see whether corbyn and may can reach a concensus, i actually doubt that will be possible.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 2, 2019 21:25:37 GMT
If May adds (say) Customs Union to 'her' deal, it'll be in the Political Declaration not the Withdrawal Act (legally binding and unchangeable according to the EU). The former isn't legally binding and is simply the basis of future negotiations with the EU. As such it can be changed by the next PM and/or by the EU. Seems odd for MPs to get worked up about its current form.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Apr 2, 2019 21:27:32 GMT
I don't agree that is right. There would be a majority in the House for a soft Brexit plan of some sort (CU most likely, but could be CM 2.0) plus a confirmatory referendum. That appears now to be correct, it will certainly be interesting over the coming days to see whether corbyn and may can reach a concensus, i actually doubt that will be possible. Also agreed - Corbyn does not want to be seen as the leader who facilitated a "Tory Brexit" - but whatever May thinks, it is actually in Parliament's hands, if it can step up to the plate (to use an American metaphor to keep the hard Brexiteers happy).
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Apr 2, 2019 21:28:32 GMT
If May adds (say) Customs Union to 'her' deal, it'll be in the Political Declaration not the Withdrawal Act (legally binding and unchangeable according to the EU). The former isn't legally binding and is simply the basis of future negotiations with the EU. As such it can be changed by the next PM and/or by the EU. Seems odd for MPs to get worked up about its current form. They'll make it legally binding in the extra time of the extension. No one, not a single person, trusts this government's words anymore.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Apr 2, 2019 21:31:29 GMT
The coming Euro elections will be really fun - I'm rather looking forward to them.
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Post by martin44 on Apr 2, 2019 21:40:30 GMT
If May adds (say) Customs Union to 'her' deal, it'll be in the Political Declaration not the Withdrawal Act (legally binding and unchangeable according to the EU). The former isn't legally binding and is simply the basis of future negotiations with the EU. As such it can be changed by the next PM and/or by the EU. Seems odd for MPs to get worked up about its current form. The problem is "Customs Union" is so at odds with the leave majority's version of "Leave" that it is extremely difficult to accept, even though it may be negotiated differently in the later political declaration, true brexiteers will never accept a customs union, unfortunately, true brexiteers are, in parliament, the minority. Edit. Even though the tory and labour manifesto's agreed to honour the 2016 vote.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Apr 2, 2019 21:41:12 GMT
If May adds (say) Customs Union to 'her' deal, it'll be in the Political Declaration not the Withdrawal Act (legally binding and unchangeable according to the EU). The former isn't legally binding and is simply the basis of future negotiations with the EU. As such it can be changed by the next PM and/or by the EU. Seems odd for MPs to get worked up about its current form. They'll make it legally binding in the extra time of the extension. No one, not a single person, trusts this government's words anymore. Mixing a few metaphors.... It does feel a little bit like it's gone to extra time and we're now in a penalty knockout, only neither side can score, partly because they don't know where the goal is. The crowd is getting restless. Whereas normally they'd be whistling at the ref to call time, now they're whistling at the players. Because they are useless. It wouldn't be so bad if the respective teams were more intent on the game, but no, they prefer showing off in front of the crowd, goalies included. "It's behind you", shouts one part of the crowd. "Oh no it's not" shouts the other section. Cue a sort of slightly embarrassed "but I'm in it till we win it" aural Mexican wave. No wall either, because them players. Meanwhile some get bored and just go off looking for a pie and a pint. EDIT: I'd pay good money for Kenneth Wolstenholme to pipe up sharpish.
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