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Post by mrclondon on Apr 5, 2019 0:36:32 GMT
Newport West Byelection - Lab hold but its a 2.4% swing to the conservatives, v. poor result for them.
www.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1113961549662760961Main parties share of the vote: LAB 39.6 (-12.7)
CON 31.3 (-8.0)
UKIP 8.6 (+6.1)
PC 5.0 (+2.5)
LD 4.6 (+2.4)
GRN 3.9 (+2.9)
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james100
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Post by james100 on Apr 5, 2019 8:01:17 GMT
You missed JC .. i could post many, but i'll resist the temptation. JC = Mr Daydream ( credit) "The story tells of a little boy named Jack. Now Jack was a very good little boy. He always ate up his lunch. He always went to bed when he was told. He always said "Please" and "Thank you." But, Jack was a daydreamer! Whenever he was supposed to be thinking about something, he found himself thinking about something else. Daydreaming! He is at school when his teacher is talking about history. He looks out the window and meets Mr. Daydream, who invites Jack to come on an adventure with him. They get on the back of a huge bird, and the bird flies them from place to place Venezuela. In the jungle, a crocodile Theresa May tricks them into using his back as a bridge, and tries to toss them into his mouth, reminiscent of what the fox did to The Gingerbread Man. The bird second referendum rescues them and takes Jack and Mr. Daydream to other places, such as the North Pole, and finally to the Wild West, where Mr. Daydream puts on a hat Prime Ministerial job title too big for him, and cannot see. He calls Jack's name from under the hat, and Jack realizes that it wasn't Mr. Daydream calling Jack's name, but his teacher. When the teacher says Jack has been daydreaming, the reader realizes daydreaming is more fun than history!" Disclosure: my love for JC is no greater than my love for TM.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 5, 2019 8:01:44 GMT
Newport West Byelection - Lab hold but its a 2.4% swing to the conservatives, v. poor result for them.
www.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1113961549662760961Main parties share of the vote: LAB 39.6 (-12.7)
CON 31.3 (-8.0)
UKIP 8.6 (+6.1)
PC 5.0 (+2.5)
LD 4.6 (+2.4)
GRN 3.9 (+2.9)
Looks more like a swing to UKIP to me.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 8:07:15 GMT
Turnout dropped to 37.1%.
So a thumping victory with 62.9% of the vote for the '<removed by mod> all politicians' party
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 5, 2019 8:12:11 GMT
Newport West Byelection - Lab hold but its a 2.4% swing to the conservatives, v. poor result for them.
www.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1113961549662760961Main parties share of the vote: LAB 39.6 (-12.7)
CON 31.3 (-8.0)
UKIP 8.6 (+6.1)
PC 5.0 (+2.5)
LD 4.6 (+2.4)
GRN 3.9 (+2.9)
Looks more like a swing to UKIP to me. 2019 - UKIP 8.6% (3rd) 2017 - UKIP 2.5% (3rd) 2015 - UKIP 15.2% (3rd) 2010 - UKIP 2.9% (5th), BNP 3.0% (4th) So no real difference - 2017 was the low-lying number among those, which fit the national picture, since UKIP collapsed in the aftermath of the referendum while Brexit was perceived to be "going well". Still a damn near 50% reduction in UKIP voters since the high of 2015.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Apr 5, 2019 8:31:10 GMT
Even if I thought UKIP were the country's saviour there's no way I would ever vote for Neil Hamilton.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 5, 2019 8:54:18 GMT
Even if I thought UKIP were the country's saviour there's no way I would ever vote for Neil Hamilton. Neil Hamilton and Tummy Rubbinson. It's not an inspiring pairing, is it?
But the question has to be where was St Nige's Brexit Party? Why did they choose not to stand? They certainly had time to prepare a candidate before the deadline on 8th March, albeit still under Blaiklock's nominal leadership.
The European Elections are going to be interesting - now that May's officially asked the EU for an extension to the end of June.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 5, 2019 14:37:22 GMT
Bit of an old article (9 Mar 2019, here) but sums it up quite well "Two thirds of people (68%) say there is not a political party that speaks for them, up from 61% last July.". Interesting article in another way - co-author Jon Cruddas MP - states, when referring to a second referendum "Keeping no deal off the ballot would disenfranchise 30%-40% of the population and lead to understandable claims that the vote was being rigged."
If the Tories think voters of the centre-right/right will vote for them simply because they're to the right of Labour, they're going to get a big shock come the next GE.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Apr 5, 2019 15:07:24 GMT
Bit of an old article (9 Mar 2019, here) but sums it up quite well "Two thirds of people (68%) say there is not a political party that speaks for them, up from 61% last July.". Interesting article in another way - co-author Jon Cruddas MP - states, when referring to a second referendum "Keeping no deal off the ballot would disenfranchise 30%-40% of the population and lead to understandable claims that the vote was being rigged."
If the Tories think voters of the centre-right/right will vote for them simply because they're to the right of Labour, they're going to get a big shock come the next GE.
The maths are a bit dodgy - 60-70% are against no deal in that case. But I have always said an Alternative Vote referendum with May's deal, no deal and Revoke is fine. We will then know definitively what people are actually voting for. The Brexit secretary's risible suggestion of a referendum between leave options only would of course disenfrachise many more. I think we can also read between the lines that the papers presented to government on the impact of a no deal Brexit on 12 April were so awful that they couldn't support it. Not just that it would likely lead to the break up of the UK (what a legacy for Theresa May, last leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party) but it wouldn't take too many people dying because their medicine couldn't be imported before there would be outrage at the government. Remember the saga of Jennifer's ear? Will seem like nothing in comparison. What might be dismissed as "Project Fear" by those who don't have to take responsibility for it is rather different when the buck for taking that risk stops squarely with you.
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Post by martin44 on Apr 5, 2019 23:51:14 GMT
Bit of an old article (9 Mar 2019, here) but sums it up quite well "Two thirds of people (68%) say there is not a political party that speaks for them, up from 61% last July.". Interesting article in another way - co-author Jon Cruddas MP - states, when referring to a second referendum "Keeping no deal off the ballot would disenfranchise 30%-40% of the population and lead to understandable claims that the vote was being rigged."
If the Tories think voters of the centre-right/right will vote for them simply because they're to the right of Labour, they're going to get a big shock come the next GE.
I agree, i'm remaining fluffy minded at the moment and hoping for the best, Teresa May has quoted so many times that "No deal is better than a bad deal" that is is now implanted into common expectation, the french, since napoleon, have loved nothing better than kicking the brits in the nuptuals , but a Macron/french extension veto may be the best thing France has done for the UK since that victorious day. ..
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 6, 2019 11:45:04 GMT
Bit of an old article (9 Mar 2019, here) but sums it up quite well "Two thirds of people (68%) say there is not a political party that speaks for them, up from 61% last July.". Interesting article in another way - co-author Jon Cruddas MP - states, when referring to a second referendum "Keeping no deal off the ballot would disenfranchise 30%-40% of the population and lead to understandable claims that the vote was being rigged."
If the Tories think voters of the centre-right/right will vote for them simply because they're to the right of Labour, they're going to get a big shock come the next GE.
I agree, i'm remaining fluffy minded at the moment and hoping for the best, Teresa May has quoted so many times that "No deal is better than a bad deal" that is is now implanted into common expectation, the french, since napoleon, have loved nothing better than kicking the brits in the nuptuals , but a Macron/french extension veto may be the best thing France has done for the UK since that victorious day. .. I agree with the French. Stop the can kicking. Just forget all your Customs unioncommonmarketNorwayplusMalthouseMaltloafMarmitebo**ocks. Are you in or are you out and decide it now or you are actually out. This would save us from years of faffing about.It's genius.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 6, 2019 13:41:20 GMT
Read an interesting article in business section of The Times today (print edition, so no link), remarking how much is written about economic contrast of Leave vs Remain but the negative effect of Brexit, even with a no-deal, is dwarfed by the drop-off in productivity. It mentioned the ONS and I've found ( here) "Productivity in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2018, as measured by output per hour, was 17.5% below its pre-downturn trend – or, equivalently, productivity would have been 21.2% higher had it followed this pre-downturn trend"
Seems another case of people paying more attention to the thing they believe they understand (Brexit) rather than the one they don't (productivity, or lack thereof).
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rscal
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Post by rscal on Apr 6, 2019 15:30:21 GMT
Read an interesting article in business section of The Times today (print edition, so no link), remarking how much is written about economic contrast of Leave vs Remain but the negative effect of Brexit, even with a no-deal, is dwarfed by the drop-off in productivity. It mentioned the ONS and I've found ( here) "Productivity in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2018, as measured by output per hour, was 17.5% below its pre-downturn trend – or, equivalently, productivity would have been 21.2% higher had it followed this pre-downturn trend"
Seems another case of people paying more attention to the thing they believe they understand (Brexit) rather than the one they don't (productivity, or lack thereof).
That news item caught my attention. Taken with this morning's news that Persimmon has been caught out by shoddy work and my own observations of how slow and lacking in initiative service workers seem to have become, paints a picture for me which I dub "MASSIVE INEFFICIENCY" (or 'ineffectiveness') of modern Britain.
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Post by samford71 on Apr 6, 2019 16:03:53 GMT
rscal . It's not inefficiency. It's more the fact that our workforce has a relatively low skillset vs. the rest of the developed world (or the G7 countries) and also that skillset doesn't not improve with age. We have a very bifurcated economy. If you look at the UK's productivity distribution, you' find it has both a bigger left tail (very poor productivity) and bigger right tail (much higher productivity) when compared to other countries. We sort of lack the "better than average" productivity companies.
It's also the case that in the UK we have a small segment of very high value work being done in areas such as finance, IT/telecoms, professsional services and pharmaceuticals, typically concentrated in a few parts of the country, and then a much larger proportion of low-value work being done across the bulk of the UK. Other countries (such as France, Germany, the US etc) have been much better than us at exporting the low-value work out to EM countries whilst retaining the high value work for themselves. Instead, the UK has found itself bidding for that low-value work. Effectively, a large part of the UK s now more like a "high-end EM" economy than a developed economy.
Since the 2008 crisis, global productivity has dropped substantially, especially in developed countries. The reasons for that are not clear but aging demographics and risk aversion (leading to lower investment and training) are often cited as issues. The UK's productivity has dropped much more because the areas where we were strong were more badly impacted by 2008. Finance, in particular, has strongly contracted in productivity terms. Finance, IT, telecoms and pharmaceuticals account for almost 60% of our productivity drop.
Edit: if there is one part of our economy that is cited as being fundamentally less efficient than in some countries it would be construction; we have not really embraced technology or new techniques in house construction for example.
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Post by captainconfident on Apr 6, 2019 16:31:39 GMT
rscal . It's not inefficiency. It's more the fact that our workforce has a relatively low skillset vs. the rest of the developed world (or the G7 countries) and also that skillset doesn't not improve with age. We have a very bifurcated economy. If you look at the UK's productivity distribution, you' find it has both a bigger left tail (very poor productivity) and bigger right tail (much higher productivity) when compared to other countries. We sort of lack the "better than average" productivity companies.
It's also the case that in the UK we have a small segment of very high value work being done in areas such as finance, IT/telecoms, professsional services and pharmaceuticals, typically concentrated in a few parts of the country, and then a much larger proportion of low-value work being done across the bulk of the UK. Other countries (such as France, Germany, the US etc) have been much better than us at exporting the low-value work out to EM countries whilst retaining the high value work for themselves. Instead, the UK has found itself bidding for that low-value work. Effectively, a large part of the UK s now more like a "high-end EM" economy than a developed economy.
Since the 2008 crisis, global productivity has dropped substantially, especially in developed countries. The reasons for that are not clear but aging demographics and risk aversion (leading to lower investment and training) are often cited as issues. The UK's productivity has dropped much more because the areas where we were strong were more badly impacted by 2008. Finance, in particular, has strongly contracted in productivity terms. Finance, IT, telecoms and pharmaceuticals account for almost 60% of our productivity drop.
Edit: if there is one part of our economy that is cited as being fundamentally less efficient than in some countries it would be construction; we have not really embraced technology or new techniques in house construction for example.
What's this piece of high class economic analysis doing in this thread? We have spent a full 99 pages building up a fundamental analysis of Brexit in which we have concluded that Yes! Freedom at last, naah! It would be suicide. Kindly get back to basics, declare which side you're on and get on with pouring scorn on the others. Bloody intellectuals! Now, back to my productive Saturday. I'm building a papier mache chicken!
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