Post by Godanubis on Jan 5, 2019 22:15:11 GMT
Nice work 10% annulised is still 50% above current annuity rates and you stilll have access to all you funds even if they are not as much.
Will leave as much as I can in Stock market and wait it out. Will live on current 15% P2P Tax free returns and may even get RIO interest only lifetime mortgage and enjoy the cash, Sod the Beneficiaries
And even higher again if you didn't have £26k locked up in Collateral. (0.0% p.a)
And even if we exclude those, your Welendus returns of "No loss 12% return APR" need some dragging up to hit the magic 15% overall.
Your 5% FC return certainly doesn't help, either.
So I suppose that leaves FS doing the heavy lifting for you? Here apparently you're earning 15-18% overall gains despite "some overall loss in a few loans". Even fully accepting that you do earn such a return, I still don't see how that takes you to an overall 15% return in your portfolio - unless you have 95% of your money in FS, or unless you are assuming a full return of capital and interest in your Lendy/Collateral investments?
Re: those juicy FS returns, you tell us that your strategy is to diversify and buy loans at 1% discount on the SM, trade, rinse and repeat etc. Whilst certainly possible in some cases at small volumes, my problem with this concept is that I know from experience that it does not scale. Yes you can buy £500 of a decent loan at a good discount and sell it on the same day now and again, but £5-10k consistently day-in day-out whilst being heavily diversified? No way, jose. Even if you could always buy at such volumes, only good fortune will allow you to sell out again if already trading at max discount, again especially if trying this on with £5k-£10k lumps. You're going to end up with an awful lot of 'interest accruing' in that game.
I suspect (one of) the inherent flaws in your strategy revolves around your stated assumption: "all on track to be resolved within the 24 month limit that I give every loan". That is a very generous assumption. Whilst some may be 'resolved', some also won't, and those that are 'resolved' may be returned to you with a slither of your original capital, and zero of the accrued interest. The supposed "20%" return you earn from buying a loan with 35 days remaining at -1% quickly dips as months roll by, and in many cases with FS, eventually turns negative upon conclusion.
TLDR; I just don't believe in you, Godanubis
Edit: FWIW, I would find a more believable way to earn 17% p.a. to be a BH investing £100k a pop highly selectively in certain loans on the PM with the generous bonus rates, and not experiencing a single failed loan. A strategy I'm sure a few have employed, requiring of course deep pockets and the abandonment of the red lines of diversification. And a damn good chunk of luck.
There is no actual evidence that will be the case .
My default position is 10% tax free return whic I currently exceed. FS is the only platform where you can remove all tax liabilities. I never risk more than 1% in any loan of those I have kept only 5 have had a a capital loss . FS losses are .45% of money lent. As previously stated to be successful using my strategy you either need <£1000 or several hundreds of thousands.
Nobody has yet shown me an overall loss. I’d be interested if you could show how with available statistics from.sites and not just predictions that don’t reflect proven returns you can show an overall loss when invested with <1% in any loan.
The 24 months is when I count loans as 100% loss. >90% have been resolved by then and losses may be under recovery for years.
Of my current Lendy loans only 3 anywhere near reaching that point. Ie max 3% of portfolio minus interest already paid. As I recently got 2.9% bonus on loan that has already been covered
