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Post by gravitykillz on Dec 4, 2018 12:00:11 GMT
I have been doing very well for the last year and a half at A/C thank you very much. when the interest rates drop i will move on to pastures new. Much better than F/C and i have had no defaults yet .Maybe you have just been unlucky?. You have been lucky then. Feel sorry for Lendy investors. Was just reading about the huge losses they incurred.
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Post by hammertime on Dec 4, 2018 13:05:35 GMT
You have made the right decision good luck .Maybe have a look at A/C. How are your new P2P investments going.
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Post by gravitykillz on Dec 4, 2018 16:14:29 GMT
Seems ok. Only 2 months in. Just worried about brexit now and the impact it will have on the economy and thus my p2p investments. Got about 8k invested and dont want to lose it. However these are trying times....
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Post by brightspark on Dec 4, 2018 17:12:32 GMT
I have been doing very well for the last year and a half at A/C thank you very much. when the interest rates drop i will move on to pastures new. Much better than F/C and i have had no defaults yet .Maybe you have just been unlucky?. You may have been doing well at AC but some investors are doing badly. They have their share of defaults. I would cite in particular 4 wind farm loans, a scottish castle loan and a loan supported by insurance backed debentures. These amount to several million pounds with investors not anticipating anything like a full recovery perhaps because of investor impropriety. The wind farm borrower seems to have earlier this year pulled a similar trick at FC - after 3 interest repayments on a hundreds of thousands loan nothing more forthcoming.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Dec 4, 2018 20:27:12 GMT
I'm getting 11% A/C. Glad i got out of F/C when i did. Your posts on AC threads don't seem so positive... about 4% default with 11% on 2/3 investment 5% on 1/3. I haven't looked back to read the post exactly but as I remember...
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michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Dec 4, 2018 23:50:56 GMT
On the otherhand I pulled out of FC whilst the product was rigged in favour of flippers, and re-entered earlier this year gradually feeding funds into an ISA during February and March.
For each platform I record cashflows into /out of the account so I can calculate the XIRR (AER equivalent).
As of 30th Nov my ISA account is showing a XIRR of 6.02% pa over the 10 months. Few if any of the (yes, sizable number of) defaults have as yet made much progress on recovery front, so I'm very happy with performance thus far, especially as there was some cash drag whilst I was feeding the funds in. (In detail the account has 550 loans; of which 10 bad debt, 13 late and 51 repaid. Of the 10 bad debt 3 were SM purchases, of the 13 late 4 were SM purchases. Of the 550 loans 96 were SM purchases.)
My non-ISA FC account with loans from 2010-2013 has 1 active loan with its last payment this week, and over the 8 years the account has been open the XIRR is 7.4%. Recoveries on defaulted loans have been much higher than I was expecting, but it takes years for this to become apparent.
FC is not a savings account, it is an investment which has to be evaluated over a 10 year horizon. I have a terrible time calculating that even though it is seemingly so simple to do so. As I understand it, unless and until you completely cash out of a platform, how do you calculate it? Assuming you can see payments going in on certain dates and payments going out on certain dates. Is that enough information?
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Post by mrclondon on Dec 5, 2018 0:09:47 GMT
michaelc - the trick is you specify your current p2p balance as if it is a withdrawal today.
So ... two columns in Excel, Col A £££ Col B Dates
List each transfer from your current account POSITIVE £££ for deposits to p2p platform NEGATIVE £££ for withdrawals from the p2p platform against the dates on your current account.
Add a final row of NEGATIVE the current p2p platform balance against today's date
Then the formula is
=XIRR(A1:A100, B1:B100, 0.1)
(On some versions of Excel you may need to enable the Analysis ToolPak add-in to access the financial analysis functions such as XIRR)
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Stonk
Stonking
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Post by Stonk on Dec 5, 2018 10:40:04 GMT
michaelc - the trick is you specify your current p2p balance as if it is a withdrawal today.
So ... two columns in Excel, Col A £££ Col B Dates
List each transfer from your current account POSITIVE £££ for deposits to p2p platform NEGATIVE £££ for withdrawals from the p2p platform against the dates on your current account.
Add a final row of NEGATIVE the current p2p platform balance against today's date
Then the formula is
=XIRR(A1:A100, B1:B100, 0.1)
(On some versions of Excel you may need to enable the Analysis ToolPak add-in to access the financial analysis functions such as XIRR)
Superb advice! I also have a spreadsheet that shows my IRR day by day. It calculates it slightly differently because of the way I've laid things out, but it is equivalent. Hopefully your post will inspire people to calculate their real IRR from FC!
What such calculations show clearly is that FC's idea of returns are overstated. This is mainly because they don't count uninvested cash, whereas almost everyone would want and/or expect it that be included. After all, if you put £10K in an account that pays 5% on the first £5K and 0% on the rest, do you think you are earning 5% interest?
Also, FC includes sign-up bonuses in your return. This is debatable. I do not like it because most people will receive just one bonus when they start on FC -- i.e., it's one-off and not representative of the future -- so it inflates the figure for ever and even if the performance of your portfolio stays perfectly static, ongoing you will earn less than that.
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Post by hammertime on Dec 5, 2018 13:19:39 GMT
I'm getting 11% A/C. Glad i got out of F/C when i did. Your posts on AC threads don't seem so positive... about 4% default with 11% on 2/3 investment 5% on 1/3. I haven't looked back to read the post exactly but as I remember...
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Post by hammertime on Dec 5, 2018 13:22:15 GMT
Yes but 4% default is better than the average at F/C which is 7%. And two of mine are about to repay which should bring it down to 2%.
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Dec 5, 2018 14:06:59 GMT
Am now 60% in RS and 40% in lending works. Which i believe are safer products. Did you see the experts’ forecasts for job losses with the possibility of no deal?
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michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Dec 5, 2018 16:39:54 GMT
michaelc - the trick is you specify your current p2p balance as if it is a withdrawal today.
So ... two columns in Excel, Col A £££ Col B Dates
List each transfer from your current account POSITIVE £££ for deposits to p2p platform NEGATIVE £££ for withdrawals from the p2p platform against the dates on your current account.
Add a final row of NEGATIVE the current p2p platform balance against today's date
Then the formula is
=XIRR(A1:A100, B1:B100, 0.1)
(On some versions of Excel you may need to enable the Analysis ToolPak add-in to access the financial analysis functions such as XIRR)
Superb advice! I also have a spreadsheet that shows my IRR day by day. It calculates it slightly differently because of the way I've laid things out, but it is equivalent. Hopefully your post will inspire people to calculate their real IRR from FC!
Yes it is. For a non-financially trained guy like me that is incredibly useful. Many thanks. Should be a sticky somewhere - maybe even p2p wide?
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benaj
Member of DD Central
N/A
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Post by benaj on Dec 5, 2018 18:16:16 GMT
I pulled out the new funds for a different reason, not enough PM loans matched even there are so many out there. :-( Matched 10 PM loans on first day and that's about it and only one on the next day.
Until there are new evidences PM loans get matched easily, FC will have others to join funding with the government for the SMEs.
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Post by spareapennyor2 on Dec 6, 2018 8:35:27 GMT
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zlb
Member of DD Central
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Post by zlb on Jan 5, 2019 8:45:10 GMT
Am now 60% in RS and 40% in lending works. Which i believe are safer products. Did you see the experts’ forecasts for job losses with the possibility of no deal? Are you referring to respective provision funds not being enough to cover? LW specifically calls theirs insurance...?
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