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Post by lotus_eater on Dec 9, 2018 10:19:30 GMT
I only started with them in July and I already have 8 loans either in default or arrears. With FC in the same time period, only 2 gone bad. I've been in communication with LC and they say it's "coincidence" that all these loans happen to be going bad at the same time, but what else would they say?
Just curious, anyone else noticing anything similar or is it indeed just my bad luck?
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IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
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Post by IFISAcava on Dec 9, 2018 11:09:35 GMT
I only started with them in July and I already have 8 loans either in default or arrears. With FC in the same time period, only 2 gone bad. I've been in communication with LC and they say it's "coincidence" that all these loans happen to be going bad at the same time, but what else would they say? Just curious, anyone else noticing anything similar or is it indeed just my bad luck? no, high default rate - my returns well below target (saved only by initial bonuses)
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pip
Posts: 542 
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Post by pip on Dec 9, 2018 11:14:42 GMT
Yes there have been a number of pretty new loans which the underlying company is going into administration:
B**** R*** E********* Ltd - Looks a bad one, the guy has terrible reviews online and most worrying has a HSE prohibition order against the business BEFORE the loan went live. Also the business took out another secured loan shortly after the LC one. Understand from sources that the company is filing for liquidation although LC have yet to confirm this yet. IMHO pretty much no chance of recovery. The guy has clearly ghosted them after the default.
W**** W**** Ltd - Well always looked a very high risk loan, lending to a retail company which is wanting to consolidate existing loans and has a terrible credit rating. It was never a good mix and hardly surprising after two repayments it stopped paying and is now filing for liquidation.
C***** M****** LIMITED - Again a very very high risk business. A business making easily replicated placemats and coasters with country scenes through websites. Did anybody look at the p&l, loss making for 2 out of the 3 years and a profit of £4k on sales close to a million in Feb 2017. Again has had a terrible credit rating for a long time.
I*C*****L LIMITED - Again look at the credit rating, it has fallen off a cliff in the last year. This tells you one thing, the company is not paying its bills and is under severe strain. And in the description they talk about going from an overdraft to an invoice discounting line. This tells you again they have no cash, their customers are taking ages or are not paying them and they are living hand to mouth.
I know retrospect is an easy way of appearing clever, but to me LC is still giving out loans to companies it shouldn't and due diligence doesn't seem great. The top loan being given to somebody with HSE prohibition notice is pretty embarrassing. Very similar to the case a few years ago of a loan being given to a restaurant with a notice from the council to shut down for a vermin infestation. If it wasn't my money I think it would be amusing! To me its simple, if a company has a bad credit rating its mainly for one reason they haven't paid their bills on time. So why would you then give them a loan for them to do exactly the same to you!
To be fair to LC it does appear a lot better run than a few years ago. Still not entirely convinced that long term the returns by being an investor are above the default rate. Need to take into account whether their very generous cashback offers make it worth it. For me I think it does just about but don't get in too deep, either with the entire platform or one individual loan. Can't really see why one would invest though without the cashback as for my completed investments my losses are above interest and I have a large number of defaults looking almost certain in my current loan book.
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Post by lotus_eater on Dec 9, 2018 11:22:39 GMT
Yes there have been a number of pretty new loans which the underlying company is going into administration: B**** R*** E********* Ltd - Looks a bad one, the guy has terrible reviews online and most worrying has a HSE prohibition order against the business BEFORE the loan went live. Also the business took out another secured loan shortly after the LC one. Understand from sources that the company is filing for liquidation although LC have yet to confirm this yet. IMHO pretty much no chance of recovery. The guy clearly is not the most legitimate of operators as can be seen by his decision to ghost them after the default. W**** W**** Ltd - Well always looked a very high risk loan, lending to a retail company which is wanting to consolidate existing loans and has a terrible credit rating. It was never a good mix and hardly surprising after two repayments it stopped paying and is now filing for liquidation. C***** M****** LIMITED - Again a very very high risk business. A business making easily replicated placemats and coasters with country scenes through websites. Did anybody look at the p&l, loss making for 2 out of the 3 years and a profit of £4k on sales close to a million in Feb 2017. Again has had a terrible credit rating for a long time. I*C*****L LIMITED - Again look at the credit rating, it has fallen off a cliff in the last year. This tells you one thing, the company is not paying its bills and is under severe strain. And in the description they talk about going from an overdraft to an invoice discounting line. This tells you again they have no cash, their customers are taking ages or are not paying them and they are living hand to mouth. I know retrospect is an easy way of appearing clever, but to me LC is still giving out loans to companies it shouldn't and due diligence doesn't seem great. The top loan being given to somebody with HSE prohibition notice is pretty embarrassing. Very similar to the case a few years ago of a loan being given to a restaurant with a notice from the council to shut down for a vermin infestation. If it wasn't my money I think it would be amusing! OI Yup, I think I'm in all of these plus more. I agree with you 100%. Looks like LC's loan qualification criteria leaves some to be desired. Perhaps time to start selling, I'll watch closely.
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
Posts: 2,806
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Post by jonno on Dec 9, 2018 11:40:17 GMT
I only started with them in July and I already have 8 loans either in default or arrears. With FC in the same time period, only 2 gone bad. I've been in communication with LC and they say it's "coincidence" that all these loans happen to be going bad at the same time, but what else would they say? Just curious, anyone else noticing anything similar or is it indeed just my bad luck? No, it is NOT a case of bad luck, it is very much par for the course. I started with LC about 18 months ago taking advantage of the bonus offered, but thank God I never put much in. Because of the constant stream of defaults my return (incl the bonus) is a meagre 2.5%, and that assumes no further defaults. I am now withdrawing my insignificant sum as quickly as I can.
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Post by lotus_eater on Dec 9, 2018 11:50:24 GMT
I only started with them in July and I already have 8 loans either in default or arrears. With FC in the same time period, only 2 gone bad. I've been in communication with LC and they say it's "coincidence" that all these loans happen to be going bad at the same time, but what else would they say? Just curious, anyone else noticing anything similar or is it indeed just my bad luck? No, it is NOT a case of bad luck, it is very much par for the course. I started with LC about 18 months ago taking advantage of the bonus offered, but thank God I never put much in. Because of the constant stream of defaults my return (incl the bonus) is a meagre 2.5%, and that assumes no further defaults. I am now withdrawing my insignificant sum as quickly as I can. Ugh! perhaps it is indeed time to start selling. I'm happy I didn't put too much in there as well, but it is still probably too much. A few beers could be had with it anyway 
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Post by captainconfident on Dec 9, 2018 13:00:50 GMT
I joined in July and whacked in 10k in a rush, just making quick yes/no decisions on the SM depending on the snapshot of the business as presented. Since then it's gone like a dream with just one late payment popping up from 4th December. The above posts come as a bit of a surprise. Of course I secretly think I must be some kind of naive genius but probably I'll go down the plug hole by the time the bonus matures
If this late payment on a C+ goes bad, it'll take out 3/5 of the bonus, but I'm well up on interest payments from the rest so well satisfied with LC so far & chucking in more.
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elliotn
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,064
Likes: 2,681
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Post by elliotn on Dec 9, 2018 15:51:21 GMT
Yes there have been a number of pretty new loans which the underlying company is going into administration: B**** R*** E********* Ltd - Looks a bad one, the guy has terrible reviews online and most worrying has a HSE prohibition order against the business BEFORE the loan went live. Also the business took out another secured loan shortly after the LC one. Understand from sources that the company is filing for liquidation although LC have yet to confirm this yet. IMHO pretty much no chance of recovery. The guy has clearly ghosted them after the default. W**** W**** Ltd - Well always looked a very high risk loan, lending to a retail company which is wanting to consolidate existing loans and has a terrible credit rating. It was never a good mix and hardly surprising after two repayments it stopped paying and is now filing for liquidation. C***** M****** LIMITED - Again a very very high risk business. A business making easily replicated placemats and coasters with country scenes through websites. Did anybody look at the p&l, loss making for 2 out of the 3 years and a profit of £4k on sales close to a million in Feb 2017. Again has had a terrible credit rating for a long time. I*C*****L LIMITED - Again look at the credit rating, it has fallen off a cliff in the last year. This tells you one thing, the company is not paying its bills and is under severe strain. And in the description they talk about going from an overdraft to an invoice discounting line. This tells you again they have no cash, their customers are taking ages or are not paying them and they are living hand to mouth. I know retrospect is an easy way of appearing clever, but to me LC is still giving out loans to companies it shouldn't and due diligence doesn't seem great. The top loan being given to somebody with HSE prohibition notice is pretty embarrassing. Very similar to the case a few years ago of a loan being given to a restaurant with a notice from the council to shut down for a vermin infestation. If it wasn't my money I think it would be amusing! To me its simple, if a company has a bad credit rating its mainly for one reason they haven't paid their bills on time. So why would you then give them a loan for them to do exactly the same to you! To be fair to LC it does appear a lot better run than a few years ago. Still not entirely convinced that long term the returns by being an investor are above the default rate. Need to take into account whether their very generous cashback offers make it worth it. For me I think it does just about but don't get in too deep, either with the entire platform or one individual loan. Can't really see why one would invest though without the cashback as for my completed investments my losses are above interest and I have a large number of defaults looking almost certain in my current loan book. I avoided these on initial review but I’m struggling with the 1st one, is that new, could you give one or two more letters please?  I think there’s enough profitable co’s on there, I invest in about a 1/3 which stills gives me plenty of diversification, about 100 loans.
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Post by albermarle on Dec 9, 2018 17:19:10 GMT
From 55 loans . I have had one loss and four in arrears and four newly paying late/in instalments .
As a guess, taking into account what might happen with the above , I think I may be ending up earning around 4 to 5% in the long run + 1.5% cashback. Even though the interest rate on most of the loans is >11% .
Most of my loans were bought on the PM by bidding at the top rate at the last minute . Since the top rates were reduced by 2% , I have stopped buying new loans as I think this reduced the risk reward ratio.
Probably buying loans on the SM at lower rates means you will have to be lucky to turn a profit .
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elliotn
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,064
Likes: 2,681
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Post by elliotn on Dec 10, 2018 1:50:28 GMT
From 55 loans . I have had one loss and four in arrears and four newly paying late/in instalments . As a guess, taking into account what might happen with the above , I think I may be ending up earning around 4 to 5% in the long run + 1.5% cashback. Even though the interest rate on most of the loans is >11% . Most of my loans were bought on the PM by bidding at the top rate at the last minute . Since the top rates were reduced by 2% , I have stopped buying new loans as I think this reduced the risk reward ratio. Probably buying loans on the SM at lower rates means you will have to be lucky to turn a profit . On SM you can check repayments and latest accounts which might help reduce the reliance on luck.
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Post by df on Dec 11, 2018 1:03:35 GMT
I only started with them in July and I already have 8 loans either in default or arrears. With FC in the same time period, only 2 gone bad. I've been in communication with LC and they say it's "coincidence" that all these loans happen to be going bad at the same time, but what else would they say? Just curious, anyone else noticing anything similar or is it indeed just my bad luck? I started on LC 22 months ago. Currently I have 338 loans, max exposure 0.4%, "actual rate return" 9.42%, 6 defaults (1 was fully repaid). I'm in most loans originated in last two years, no clever strategies. May be just a good luck? To compare with FC, @22 months my return was significantly lower.
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Post by df on Dec 11, 2018 1:21:40 GMT
From 55 loans . I have had one loss and four in arrears and four newly paying late/in instalments . As a guess, taking into account what might happen with the above , I think I may be ending up earning around 4 to 5% in the long run + 1.5% cashback. Even though the interest rate on most of the loans is >11% . Most of my loans were bought on the PM by bidding at the top rate at the last minute . Since the top rates were reduced by 2% , I have stopped buying new loans as I think this reduced the risk reward ratio. Probably buying loans on the SM at lower rates means you will have to be lucky to turn a profit . On SM you can check repayments and latest accounts which might help reduce the reliance on luck. I bought a handful on SM at the beginning to get it going (avoided those with late repayments and under 10%ers), but after that I didn't see any need to use SM, loan flow on LC is ok.
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Post by lotus_eater on Dec 16, 2018 10:57:26 GMT
I only started with them in July and I already have 8 loans either in default or arrears. With FC in the same time period, only 2 gone bad. I've been in communication with LC and they say it's "coincidence" that all these loans happen to be going bad at the same time, but what else would they say? Just curious, anyone else noticing anything similar or is it indeed just my bad luck? I started on LC 22 months ago. Currently I have 338 loans, max exposure 0.4%, "actual rate return" 9.42%, 6 defaults (1 was fully repaid). I'm in most loans originated in last two years, no clever strategies. May be just a good luck? To compare with FC, @22 months my return was significantly lower. Well, I think maybe I'm just unlucky then as I now have eleven loans (3 more than my last post in less than a week) in arrears and only been with the platform since July. When you say "actual return rate" are you talking about what LC calls "actual" or are you talking about XIRR that you calculated? LC says my "actual" is 9.12% but my XIRR is 5.49% and that's WITHOUT taking any bad debt in to consideration. Really starting to get very concerned about this company, and my money :-!
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r00lish67
Member of DD Central
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 16, 2018 11:31:10 GMT
I started on LC 22 months ago. Currently I have 338 loans, max exposure 0.4%, "actual rate return" 9.42%, 6 defaults (1 was fully repaid). I'm in most loans originated in last two years, no clever strategies. May be just a good luck? To compare with FC, @22 months my return was significantly lower. Well, I think maybe I'm just unlucky then as I now have eleven loans (3 more than my last post in less than a week) in arrears and only been with the platform since July. When you say "actual return rate" are you talking about what LC calls "actual" or are you talking about XIRR that you calculated? LC says my "actual" is 9.12% but my XIRR is 5.49% and that's WITHOUT taking any bad debt in to consideration. Really starting to get very concerned about this company, and my money :-! This sounds concerning, so I had a look at the loan book. Re: your new new ones, might these be two new loans? The two very newest loans #618 and #619 are marked as in arrears despite not having reached their first payment date yet. I suspect this is in error. Other than that, out of 548 loans in their total loanbook, just 30 have been put in arrears/default over a period of 4 years so I tend to agree with LC that you probably really have been unlucky here. That said, it's not all luck on LC if you're using self-select. One B+ loan is not necessarily anywhere near the same risk as another B+ loan if you're regularly reviewing the financials (?) Some have financials way out of date, some have negative total assets or negative current assets for example. Appreciate this is a lot of effort for £20 loan parts though!
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Post by df on Dec 17, 2018 19:07:19 GMT
I started on LC 22 months ago. Currently I have 338 loans, max exposure 0.4%, "actual rate return" 9.42%, 6 defaults (1 was fully repaid). I'm in most loans originated in last two years, no clever strategies. May be just a good luck? To compare with FC, @22 months my return was significantly lower. Well, I think maybe I'm just unlucky then as I now have eleven loans (3 more than my last post in less than a week) in arrears and only been with the platform since July. When you say "actual return rate" are you talking about what LC calls "actual" or are you talking about XIRR that you calculated? LC says my "actual" is 9.12% but my XIRR is 5.49% and that's WITHOUT taking any bad debt in to consideration. Really starting to get very concerned about this company, and my money :-! "Actual return rate" as displayed on my dashboard. I do expect it to go down because majority of my loans were bought before the rate drop and I'm not sure if recent increase in loan flow jeopardises quality. There are more and more of A's that look like B's. Many of those in arrears were eventually re-paying. Currently, out of 342 loans I have 7 in arrears.
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