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Post by steamer on Jan 25, 2019 10:08:25 GMT
I am also getting out.
I stopped reinvesting over a year ago. Maybe i have been unlucky but having made 5.75 to 7.5% every year including 2017/18 the numbers looked ominous in late 2017. My 13k is down to 9k invested
So far in 2018/19
Total Income 780 Bad debts 851 Recoveries 140 if it continues this way my return will be just below 0.8%
In past years the highest bad debt was 350 so if it follows the trend it will be X3 by end of year.
The only way my annualised return could be any where near the figure of 5.5% FC give is if they average out the entire life of my investment, which while true is a highly misleading figure.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 25, 2019 11:06:52 GMT
You need to allow AT LEAST 5 years for the dust to settle on recoveries before you will have any real feel for the actual rate of return .. historically FC have done pretty well on recoveries, 40%+ iirc, but it ain't a quick process.
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p2pmark
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Post by p2pmark on Jan 25, 2019 13:15:25 GMT
You need to allow AT LEAST 5 years for the dust to settle on recoveries before you will have any real feel for the actual rate of return .. historically FC have done pretty well on recoveries, 40%+ iirc, but it ain't a quick process. Would you expect this recovery rate to fall now they're no longer doing property development loans?
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 25, 2019 13:50:04 GMT
Nope, the 40%-ish was even before property loans.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Jan 25, 2019 17:12:14 GMT
You need to allow AT LEAST 5 years for the dust to settle on recoveries before you will have any real feel for the actual rate of return .. historically FC have done pretty well on recoveries, 40%+ iirc, but it ain't a quick process. About right. Looking through my defaults here are some real oldies 1546 1586 2056 2073 2360 all recovered in full (eventually).
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blender
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Post by blender on Jan 25, 2019 22:56:50 GMT
Past performance should not be taken as predictive of future performance. Recoveries depend on the quality of the loans made and the future effort they will put into chasing. I think you can whistle for 40% recoveries on the 2018 crop of loans. We have now cleared out the classic accounts, as much as possible, and only an ISA remains for the time being.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 26, 2019 16:00:43 GMT
I'd agree it's impossible to forecast accurately .. but I stick by the 'it will take at least 5 years to find out' comment. P2P (at least the FC sort) definitely not for people with short time horizons...
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coogaruk
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Post by coogaruk on Jan 27, 2019 12:21:00 GMT
Just as my total earnings (which I left invested) seem to have recovered to within a whisker of where they were prior to the changes introduced in September 2017, they suffer another setback, i.e. default. The latest of these occured last Friday.
Total earnngs on my account are now -1.6% on where they stood on 18th September 2017 and 3.6% below where they were on the 1st Anniversary of that date.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jan 27, 2019 14:59:19 GMT
I'd agree it's impossible to forecast accurately .. but I stick by the 'it will take at least 5 years to find out' comment. P2P (at least the FC sort) definitely not for people with short time horizons... What you say is true. But that five year horizon means returns delayed if you are lucky and cash at significant risk over a long period. The uncertainty and risk should mean higher potential rewards for those willing to take them, not make the difference between an unacceptable short term return and a possibly acceptable longer term return. When, after a year, you cannot take out what you put in - that's unacceptable imo.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Jan 27, 2019 19:16:50 GMT
Not sure where the disagreement is here? We all agree that since late 2017 FC returns have been non existent to minimal (mine are less than 1% on a well diversified loan book). All recovery will do is improve a bad situation slightly. Is the FC loan book a train crash waiting to happen? and will it all derail by 2020? Time will tell. About then a lot of punters will complain of miss selling having not red the FC very small print.
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on Jan 27, 2019 19:52:13 GMT
Not sure where the disagreement is here? We all agree that since late 2017 FC returns have been non existent to minimal (mine are less than 1% on a well diversified loan book). All recovery will do is improve a bad situation slightly. Is the FC loan book a train crash waiting to happen? and will it all derail by 2020? Time will tell. About then a lot of punters will complain of miss selling having not red the FC very small print.
Of course there are the small print and warnings as FC's intended get-out, but I wonder at what point do FC become culpable, given they are claiming a return of 6-7%, but delivering considerably less! I'm sure they could wiggle out of blame if returns ended up being 5% or 4%, but there must surely be a limit? If I've been sold something with an expected return of 6-7% and it actually gives me 0%, the phrase "mis-selling" would jump prominently into my mind.
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Post by captainconfident on Jan 28, 2019 12:40:54 GMT
I was half way through a diatribe about the bucket of s*** loans that the black box bought me at the beginning of the new era until I switched it off forever. But then I noticed apparent progress and promise of imminent full recover of Breath Of Foul Air (1935), a default which occurred in the Stone Age.
For me that is a sign the FC have doggedly stuck at it over the years. Geriatric forum members will have written tens of thousands of bitter words over the years about this March 2013 - default after one payment shocker.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jan 28, 2019 14:25:05 GMT
I was half way through a diatribe about the bucket of s*** loans that the black box bought me at the beginning of the new era until I switched it off forever. But then I noticed apparent progress and promise of imminent full recover of Breath Of Foul Air (1935), a default which occurred in the Stone Age. For me that is a sign the FC have doggedly stuck at it over the years. Geriatric forum members will have written tens of thousands of bitter words over the years about this March 2013 - default after one payment shocker. They never let go of the ones they have decided to chase. The question is, will they chase all the defaulting 2018 loans hard? My guess is no, because it costs them and the recoveries come to us, mostly.
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Post by hammertime on Jan 28, 2019 17:01:37 GMT
Oh my days im soooo happy i got out of F/C a year and a half ago they are so  now and i only have less than £200 defaulted with them. I am i in A/C now who were really great but not so much now so mooove on. |
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Jan 29, 2019 7:40:24 GMT
Oh my days im soooo happy i got out of F/C a year and a half ago they are so now and i only have less than £200 defaulted with them. I am i in A/C now who were really great but not so much now so mooove on. But where to, buddy? Very soon you’re so far down the p2p food chain that you’re in danger of platform collapse.
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now and i only have less than £200 defaulted with them. I am i in A/C now who were really great but not so much now so mooove on.