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Post by Ace on Nov 16, 2023 22:39:35 GMT
ofit. I've assumed the repayment will be made to lenders tomorrow (they usually hit our accounts the day after the announcement, The update states payment on the 20th It actually says by the 20th. In my experience, the cash is usually in my AxiaFunder Wallet the day after the announcement, but they give themselves a bit of leeway just incase. I will update the figures if necessary to the actual dates when know to keep them as accurate as possible. Out of interest, I tried changing the repayment date to the 20th to see what effect it would have; it lowered the quoted XIRR figures by 0.01%. I'm very happy either way.
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Post by Ace on Nov 20, 2023 10:05:36 GMT
My mistake. The funds were paid today. I'll update the figures later.
EDIT: Done.
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Post by Ace on Nov 20, 2023 16:46:12 GMT
A 25th HDR tranche repayment has been announced today, the 3rd tranche for case #4052 with a 25.3% profit.
Payment will be received by Thursday 23rd. I'll update the XIRR figures once the actual repayment date is known. |
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Post by Ace on Nov 21, 2023 9:55:20 GMT
A 25th HDR tranche repayment has been announced today, the 3rd tranche for case #4052 with a 25.3% profit.
Payment will be received by Thursday 23rd. I'll update the XIRR figures once the actual repayment date is known. Payment received today 21/11/23. This takes the overall XIRR for my HDR case investments to 21.12%. Assuming an equal amount was invested in each of the 7 HDR cases that have received at least 1 tranche repayment so far, the XIRR is 20.89%. For each £1k equal investment (£7k across the 7 loans), £2,560 of capital and £533.34 profit (£3,093.34 total) would have been paid so far.
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firedog
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Post by firedog on Nov 23, 2023 12:51:05 GMT
A new opportunity (5182), with a new law firm, now available. I'll let you guess what the claim's about.
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firedog
Member of DD Central
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Post by firedog on Nov 23, 2023 13:05:57 GMT
(Another nice wee improvement on the bank transfer page: wee buttons that let you copy the various details (Bank transfer reference number etc) into the clipboard. Pretty handy if you're doing everything on an iPhone.)
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Post by Ace on Nov 23, 2023 21:03:09 GMT
Having previously reported on the combined return from my HDR cases, I wanted to see how the individual cases were performing, as I was wondering what the variation between the different cases was. The answer is that they are all performing very well. The variation seems to be mainly determined by the percentage of cases that have resolved, with the annualised return generally rising as more repayments are made, as was expected by the platform. Anyway, here's how my HDR cases are performing so far: Case = AxiaFunder's allocated case number. Date = The date my funds were allocated to the investment. % Repaid = The percentage of original capital that has been repaid so far (repayments occur in roughly 10% chunks as cases resolve). Profit/£1k = Total profit received so far for each £1k of initial investment. XIRR = The annualised return that has been earned on returned capital. | Case | Date | % Repaid | Profit/£1k | XIRR | | #3907 | 29 Apr 2022 | 62 | £168.84 | 23.16% | | #3936 | 20 May 2022
| 43 | £108.20 | 22.33% | | #3949 | 20 Jun 2022
| 48 | £110.42 | 20.64% | | #4006 | 18 Aug 2022
| 30 | £42.33 | 16.47% | | #3898 | 13 Oct 2022
| 20 | £25.76 | 17.25% | | #4052 | 11 Nov 2022
| 30 | £50.71 | 20.78% | | #4039 | 15 Dec 2022
| 23 | £27.08 | 16.52% |
As previously reported, the combined XIRR for all of the above is 20.89% (assuming an equal investment in each of the above cases). All of the above loans were to the original HDR law firm. Loans to the other law firms have not made any repayments yet, as they've been running for less time. I would expect the first loan to the second law firm to make its first repayment soon. It will be even more interesting to see how the returns vary across loans from the various (now 4) law firms when they do start to repay. Note that these figures are from my own personal investments. The % Repaid and Profit per £1k Invested should be the same for everyone (assuming I've calculated it correctly). I've chosen to use the date that my funds were committed to the investment as the Start Date (which could be different for others) so as to take account of the cash drag between that date and the date the funds were allocated to the borrower, as I consider this to be unavoidable. For this reason, my XIRR will differ slightly from those with different start dates. I've used the date that repayments hit my AxiaFunder account for the cashflow dates in my XIRR calculation. The XIRR calculated is strictly for the capital repaid so far. I'd expect the XIRRs to rise slightly as further repayments are made, but time will tell. |
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p2pfan
Member of DD Central
Full-Time Investor
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Post by p2pfan on Nov 23, 2023 21:37:19 GMT
Thank you for sharing those metrics. Fascinating.
I am pleased that you are earning a healthy return on your AxiaFunder investments! It is refreshing to see, when P2P and most other forms of investing have struggled to keep up with inflation in recent times.
As we currently have a brand new law firm raising money for its Housing Disrepair Cases rather than the same old firms, how do you - or anyone else - rate the offering and likelihood of providing good returns compared to previous law firms on AxiaFunder?
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Post by Ace on Nov 23, 2023 22:51:17 GMT
Thank you for sharing those metrics. Fascinating. I am pleased that you are earning a healthy return on your AxiaFunder investments! It is refreshing to see, when P2P and most other forms of investing have struggled to keep up with inflation in recent times. As we currently have a brand new law firm raising money for its Housing Disrepair Cases rather than the same old firms, how do you - or anyone else - rate the offering and likelihood of providing good returns compared to previous law firms on AxiaFunder? Thanks, great question. It seems to me that the returns on the loans to the initial law firm are heading towards the platform's forecast of somewhere near 25% XIRR. It's really difficult to determine a level of confidence in that at this point since none of the loans have completed yet. The first loan is currently 62% complete. For instance, there might be some problems for cases that have not settled that we are not yet aware of (I'm not expecting them, but we just can't know until a loan finally completes). To counter that, the longer cases take to resolve the more the law firm can claim for their work and the higher the compensation for the client and us. So far, the returns are pretty much in line with those that were modeled by AxiaFunder, so I'm inclined to believe that the final outcome will be in line with their forecast of an annualised return of around 25%. They do seem to have underestimated the number of cases that need to be replaced, but this hasn't adversely effected the returns so far. I note that they have increased the forecast proportion of replacement loans in more recent cases. As for whether we can apply those economics to the other law firms is even more difficult to determine, given that we have very little evidence to date. We do have some evidence from the progress reports from the second law firm that the initial cases are progressing in a similar way to the first, but lenders haven't received any payments yet. If anything, the initial cases to resolve look to have a slightly better return. Some of the very early cases to the initial firm resulted in small losses to lenders (which were more than made up for by the later cases), but this does not seem to be the case for the second law firm due to better agreed loan mechanics. Then we have to take into account that the returns for the later law firms have lower average forecast returns of around 20% XIRR. I also note that there are a few cases from the second law firm that are in the "going to trial" category. I don't recall seeing any from the first entering this state. So that's a bit of an unknown that could go either way. Today's new law firm does seem to have a remarkably good reputation. Better so than the other firms. So I'm happy to take my usual slice. On balance, it seems like AxiaFunder have got their forecasts about right so far, so I'm expecting the returns to be somewhere in line with their forecasts. More because I don't see any evidence to the contrary, rather than having much positive evidence. I think that it's fair that those who invested in the first loans get a higher return for diving in to a completely untested arrangement. If we end up with anywhere near 20% returns for these later law firms I'll be very happy indeed, and will continue to invest. Then again, I was once happy to invest in ABLrate!
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Post by overthehill on Nov 29, 2023 11:29:27 GMT
Barring pure coincidence it's obvious that Axiafunder follow this forum. They've read Ace 's posts and thought this is actually a great marketing opportunity so we'll create an email using easily assembled stats. I can attach it if anyone is interested |
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 29, 2023 12:02:34 GMT
What is the current thinking that you may be exposed to more than you invested via Axia Funder? I remember that this was raised initially as an unlikely but possible risk of getting involved in litigation funding (and the spectre of the UB case raises its ugly head here).
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firedog
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Post by firedog on Nov 29, 2023 12:32:51 GMT
Barring pure coincidence it's obvious that Axiafunder follow this forum. They've read Ace 's posts and thought this is actually a great marketing opportunity so we'll create an email using easily assembled stats. I can attach it if anyone is interested Funny how you never see Ace and AxiaFunder in the same room. Just saying.
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Post by frank121 on Nov 29, 2023 14:00:28 GMT
Here is the graph from the email.
I think AF may have made a mistake with the SPV numbering i.e SPV2 should infact be SPV1. However the dates and data appear to be correct and show that the first tranche of returns are paid 6-7 months after funding. (at 10% tranche intervals so 10 tranches per SPV)
Here is the orignial commentary from the email:
The net investor returns for the first 7 SPVs are shown below. The dots show the investor net gains by tranche and time of the tranche payment. So, for example, looking at SPV1 funded in May 2022, the first 10%-tranche had an investor return of 4.7% in December 2022 7 months after the Offer launch, followed by returns of 17.3% and 25.2% in March and May 2023 from the second and third tranches respectively.
In total 25 10%-tranches have been repaid, together comprising 220 resolved claims (out of 604 claims funded by these 7 SPVs). The average gain to investors across the settled claims is 20.8%. Contractually, claims that settle after a longer period tend to generate a higher return, e.g. the 5th and 6th tranches of SPV2 and SPV1 have generated returns of 39.2% and 43.3% respectively.
Figure 2: Investor Return on Investment (ROI) for Sequential 10%-tranches, for SPVs with Repayments
Attachments:
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Post by Ace on Nov 29, 2023 15:31:50 GMT
What is the current thinking that you may be exposed to more than you invested via Axia Funder? I remember that this was raised initially as an unlikely but possible risk of getting involved in litigation funding (and the spectre of the UB case raises its ugly head here). As I understand it, that risk still exists, even for the portfolio loans. There's a fairly detailed description of the unlikely series of events that would need to happen for that to occur in each offer document, which I'd recommend reading. I recall reading somewhere that in the unlikely case that a judge did award costs against us lenders personally, that it would highly likely (but not absolutely guaranteed) be limited to the amount we funded plus the same amount again. The current portfolio loan is looking to fund 150 individual cases. So, for each £1k that I lend, I will only be funding £6.67 per case (assuming the loan fills). There might be other funds in the partnership account that could also be purloined, such as funds that hadn't been deployed yet, or repayments that hadn't been distributed to lenders yet... So, that could lead to an effective liability of more than twice the £6.67 per £1k lent. Also, only around £2k is given to the law firm per case to cover: sourcing the case, dealing with it, and their costs to take it to trial if necessary. It seems to me that the cost of the defense is unlikely to be massive. Of the 255 cases settled so far, none have needed to go to trial, so no risk arose on any of those. And that's just the first of many stages that would need to go wrong before there was an award against the partners personally. All of that is just the musings of a fellow investor with absolutely no legal training and should not be considered as advice. I've found AxiaFunder to be very approachable. I'd recommend contacting them if you'd like to discuss the topic with the experts. The way I look at it is, investing in multiple portfolio loans is already generating healthy annualised returns of around 20%. In the unlikely event that I do get stung by adverse costs I should be well covered by existing profits.
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Post by Ace on Nov 29, 2023 15:38:44 GMT
Barring pure coincidence it's obvious that Axiafunder follow this forum. They've read Ace 's posts and thought this is actually a great marketing opportunity so we'll create an email using easily assembled stats. I can attach it if anyone is interested Funny how you never see Ace and AxiaFunder in the same room. Just saying. 🤔 As you can see from my signature, I do have an equity investment in AF (and many other P2P firms), and I'm obviously a very keen investor on their platform, but there's no other connection. My opinions given are just that, so they could be wrong.
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