firedog
Member of DD Central
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Post by firedog on Jul 10, 2024 14:09:01 GMT
I notice that the case win rate and Investor IRR stats – perhaps inevitably - no longer appear on the home page
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Post by frank121 on Jul 10, 2024 14:50:51 GMT
Very interesting Indeed Ace; Many thanks for sharing as otherwise I may not have seen it. Lots of details and it answers many questions that I had. It's good to understand the key differences about the 1st company and the others which have followed. I am much more hopeful that Axia Funder will be preparing a detailed statement to all investors about this event.
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Post by Ace on Jul 16, 2024 9:39:06 GMT
The 52nd HDR loan tranche repayment has been made today. It is from the second law firm.
It was the 3rd tranche repayment for #4947. This tranche had a profit of 27.59%. The average profit for repaid cases in this loan is 19.6% (20.90% XIRR ).
CAVEAT: the following info relating to the HDR cases in general does not yet take account of the fact that all profits from the first law firm will be nullified by its administration. AF have undertaken to repay the capital from those loans. The exact effect it will have on the overall HDR XIRRs won't be known until the capital repayment dates are determined, but it will obviously lower them significantly. 35 of the 52 profit tranches paid so far have been for the failed law firm, so my very unscientific guess is that it would reduce the following XIRR figures by roughly two-thirds. The XIRRs will then climb again as tranches from other law firms repay.
The overall XIRR for the repaid portions of my HDR case investments is now 22.57%.
Assuming an equal amount was invested in each of the 14 HDR cases that have received at least 1 tranche repayment so far, the XIRR is 22.56%. For each £1k equal investment (£14k across the 14 loans), £5,587.50 of capital and £1,300.78 profit (£6,888.28 total) would have been paid so far. |
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billt
Posts: 105 
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Post by billt on Jul 16, 2024 11:56:46 GMT
Ace, Thanks, without your detailed analysis I wouldn’t have a clue as to the profit or loss ( I have 38 loans of 1k each )
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Post by steveng on Jul 23, 2024 12:42:54 GMT
Ace, Thanks, without your detailed analysis I wouldn’t have a clue as to the profit or loss ( I have 38 loans of 1k each ) I second that. Thanks Ace! I keep logs of money in and money out but it doesn't add up to the total on the platform. I'm sure I'll work it out eventually. It's been a busy day 4554 4764
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firedog
Member of DD Central
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Post by firedog on Jul 23, 2024 13:21:21 GMT
Ace, Thanks, without your detailed analysis I wouldn’t have a clue as to the profit or loss ( I have 38 loans of 1k each ) I second that. Thanks Ace! It's been a busy day 4554 4764 Suspect Ace will be kept busy with today's goings-on! As well as the two you mention we had updates on 3936, 4006 and 4052 Might be stating the obvious, but you'll get a raw profit figure for each tranche if you go to Main Account/Historic, then drill down to each investment, where you'll see the profit line for each tranche. Obviously you'll need to do more work to calculate XIRR, but thanks to Ace we don't need to 
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Post by Ace on Jul 23, 2024 20:20:29 GMT
Thanks all, sorry I'm a bit tardy with the updates. I'm dealing with a difficult personal situation at the moment, so don't have as much time to spend on P2P as I once did. I'll give the simple HDR repayment update today as that's relatively simple.
The 53rd HDR loan tranche repayment has been made today. It is from the second law firm.
It was the 2nd tranche repayment for #4764. This tranche had a profit of 23.55%. The average profit for repaid cases in this loan is 19.3% (21.69% XIRR ).
I won't quote the overall HDR figures for now, as the old calculations will no longer be valid because all of the profit payments from the first law firm need to be converted to capital repayments. I've done some preliminary work on this, but I now need to incorporate the 7 payments made today; 1 for each loan to the first law firm. I intend to calculate overall profit figures for all HDR claims, which will be severely reduced to start with due to the removal of profits from the first law firms loans, and to quote a seperate figure for all HDR claims except for those to the first law firm. The second set of figures should give us a better idea of how the loans are performing going forward, since there will be no further loans to the first law firm, but, presumably, there will be further loans to the other law firms, and perhaps some new ones.
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Post by Ace on Jul 23, 2024 23:08:05 GMT
I received the final payments for 3565 and 3950 today. The initial expected returns were stated here ( p2pindependentforum.com/post/486208/thread). The payments were made a bit earlier than expected, so the platform calculated XIRRs have increased. I.e.: #3565 returned a final profit of 131.1% (46.6% XIRR according to platform calculations). #3950 will return a total profit of 99.7% (54.6% XIRR according to platform calculations).
The final payments for #3784 will be made later.
I'm not in #4554.
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billt
Posts: 105
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Post by billt on Jul 24, 2024 9:39:46 GMT
I second that. Thanks Ace! It's been a busy day 4554 4764 Suspect Ace will be kept busy with today's goings-on! As well as the two you mention we had updates on 3936, 4006 and 4052 Might be stating the obvious, but you'll get a raw profit figure for each tranche if you go to Main Account/Historic, then drill down to each investment, where you'll see the profit line for each tranche. Obviously you'll need to do more work to calculate XIRR, but thanks to Ace we don't need to Never assume you are stating the obvious, I appreciate the feedback and learn something new every day.
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Post by steveng on Jul 24, 2024 9:54:08 GMT
Suspect Ace will be kept busy with today's goings-on! As well as the two you mention we had updates on 3936, 4006 and 4052 Might be stating the obvious, but you'll get a raw profit figure for each tranche if you go to Main Account/Historic, then drill down to each investment, where you'll see the profit line for each tranche. Obviously you'll need to do more work to calculate XIRR, but thanks to Ace we don't need to Never assume you are stating the obvious, I appreciate the feedback and learn something new every day. So true. Although I did previously find the section you mentioned firedog, the last time I looked I hadn't got enough data in it to add to my spreadsheet. This message prompted me to get back in there and change the data from returns to profit figures. Low and behold my account now adds up and should do going forward.
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Post by Ace on Jul 24, 2024 15:20:27 GMT
Thanks all, sorry I'm a bit tardy with the updates. I'm dealing with a difficult personal situation at the moment, so don't have as much time to spend on P2P as I once did. I'll give the simple HDR repayment update today as that's relatively simple. The 53rd HDR loan tranche repayment has been made today. It is from the second law firm. It was the 2nd tranche repayment for #4764. This tranche had a profit of 23.55%. The average profit for repaid cases in this loan is 19.3% (21.69% XIRR ). I won't quote the overall HDR figures for now, as the old calculations will no longer be valid because all of the profit payments from the first law firm need to be converted to capital repayments. I've done some preliminary work on this, but I now need to incorporate the 7 payments made today; 1 for each loan to the first law firm. I intend to calculate overall profit figures for all HDR claims, which will be severely reduced to start with due to the removal of profits from the first law firms loans, and to quote a seperate figure for all HDR claims except for those to the first law firm. The second set of figures should give us a better idea of how the loans are performing going forward, since there will be no further loans to the first law firm, but, presumably, there will be further loans to the other law firms, and perhaps some new ones. I've now had chance to crunch the numbers. I've converted all of the profit payments from the first law firm to capital repayments, including the 7 payments from yesterday (only relevant to the first set of results): Returns so far from all HDR loans (all 4 law firms, including the one in administration)The overall XIRR for the repaid portions of my HDR case investments is now 3.76%. (This should steadily rise as repayments from the loans in good standing are received, baring any further "issues"). Assuming an equal amount was invested in each of the 14 HDR loans that have received at least 1 tranche repayment so far, the XIRR is 4.09%. For each £1k equal investment (£14k across the 14 loans), £7,117.41 of capital and £342.02 profit (£7,459.43 total) would have been paid so far. Returns so far from all HDR loans in good standing(I.e. excluding those from the law firm in administration)The overall XIRR for the repaid portions of my HDR case investments is now 21.42%. Assuming an equal amount was invested in each of the 7 HDR loans that have received at least 1 tranche repayment so far, the XIRR is 21.35%. For each £1k equal investment (£7k across the 7 loans), £1,847.50 of capital and £342.02 profit (£2,189.52 total) would have been paid so far. Note that the total profit is the same for both cases above because there will be no profit or loss from the loans to the first law firm, as AxiaFunder have undertaken to cover those losses. EDIT: I've corrected the XIRR figures in the "all 4 law firms" section above. I'd made an error in an effort to simplify/rush the calculation that didn't correctly take account of the cash drag effect for the funds that have been converted from profit to capital.
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firedog
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Post by firedog on Jul 25, 2024 17:01:50 GMT
New offer now available (another diesel emissions group litigation case).
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dave4
Member of DD Central
Cynical is a hobby not a lifestyle
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Post by dave4 on Jul 25, 2024 17:04:59 GMT
New offer now available (another diesel emissions group litigation case). #5459
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Post by kazamx on Jul 25, 2024 19:39:31 GMT
This one seems to be against two manufacturers rather than one. So a tiny bit of diversification.
Saying that, if one side fails both probably will so its a total wipe anyway.
Will be interesting to see how quickly it fills. This is the first test after the issues with the first law firm
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jul 26, 2024 7:04:02 GMT
This one seems to be against two manufacturers rather than one. So a tiny bit of diversification. Saying that, if one side fails both probably will so its a total wipe anyway. Will be interesting to see how quickly it fills. This is the first test after the issues with the first law firm Are we all investing as usual? I am going to.
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