firedog
Member of DD Central
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Post by firedog on Jul 26, 2024 7:20:36 GMT
Are we all investing as usual? I am going to. I've invested the minimum, which is the same approach I've taken with all the other diesel litigation claims.
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Post by Ace on Jul 26, 2024 7:58:48 GMT
Are we all investing as usual? I am going to. I've invested the minimum, which is the same approach I've taken with all the other diesel litigation claims. I'm taking my usual slice.
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Post by Ace on Jul 26, 2024 16:41:17 GMT
Another HDR loan tranche repayment has been made today. It is the first repayment from the 3rd law firm.
It was the 1st tranche repayment for #4237. This tranche had a profit of 25.02%. The average profit for repaid cases in this loan is 25.02% (26.56% XIRR ).
Incidentally, that's the highest return from a first tranche repayment from any HDR loan so far.
Over the past 3 days there was also a repayment for each of the 7 HDR loans to the law firm in administration. These payments were the first tranche of repayments of capital by AF towards making all lenders on these loans whole.
Returns so far from all HDR loans (all 4 law firms, including the one in administration)
The overall XIRR for the repaid portions of my HDR case investments is now 3.48%. (This should steadily rise as repayments from the loans in good standing are received, baring any further "issues").
Assuming an equal amount was invested in each of the 15 HDR loans that have received at least 1 tranche repayment so far, the XIRR is 3.79%. For each £1k equal investment (£15k across the 15 loans), £7,867.61 of capital and £366.11 profit (£8,233.72 total) would have been paid so far.
Eagle eyed readers will have noticed that the XIRRs above have decreased this time. This is because the increase due to the new profit payment was more than outweighed by cash drag from the return of capital on the loans to the law firm in administration which have earned zero profit since being invested 19 to 27 months ago. Future tranche repayments from loans in good standing should cause the XIRRs to rise when not accompanied by further profitless returns of capital.
Returns so far from all HDR loans in good standing(I.e. excluding those from the law firm in administration)
The overall XIRR for the repaid portions of my HDR case investments is now 21.69%.
Assuming an equal amount was invested in each of the 8 HDR loans that have received at least 1 tranche repayment so far, the XIRR is 21.61%. For each £1k equal investment (£8k across the 8 loans), £1,943.80 of capital and £366.11 profit (£2,309.91 total) would have been paid so far.
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firedog
Member of DD Central
Posts: 367
Likes: 462
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Post by firedog on Jul 26, 2024 17:25:46 GMT
Another HDR loan tranche repayment has been made today. It is the first repayment from the 3rd law firm.
It was the 1st tranche repayment for #4237. This tranche had a profit of 25.02%. That's an extremely impressive initial return.
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Post by Ace on Jul 26, 2024 17:58:30 GMT
Another HDR loan tranche repayment has been made today. It is the first repayment from the 3rd law firm.
It was the 1st tranche repayment for #4237. This tranche had a profit of 25.02%. That's an extremely impressive initial return. I agree, it's the best return we've had so far as a first tranche profit from any of the HDR loans. As it was the first repayment from the 3rd law firm, I'm hoping that it's indicative of future tranches and loans to that law firm. Looking at the details of the profits from each case in this tranche shows a different pattern to that from other law firms. The profits from others have shown a strong correlation between Days-To-Settle and Profit. These cases show a much weaker correlation in that regard. I wonder if our profits from these cases are more closely tied to being a percentage of the damages received, as opposed to time lent, than for loans to other law firms. Of course, it could be that profits from longer cases don't rise as much as those to the other law firms, so the XIRRs might still end up roughly equivalent, or even less! I don't recall reading about any difference in the offer document, but it could be that I didn't study it in sufficient detail given that I'd already invested in lots of other HDR loans by the time this one came around. One other thought is that, if the profits are more tightly related to the damages, it might make it less risky as it might make it less likely that the law firm would suffer losses on cases, and thus they would be less likely to run into trouble. I realise that there are way too many ifs, butt's and mights there. I'll drop Cormac a line to see if he can enlighten me.
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Greenwood2
Member of DD Central
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jul 27, 2024 6:38:34 GMT
The longest to first repayment for me though, and slightly less sold than usual to test my arithmetic!
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Post by kazamx on Jul 27, 2024 6:44:22 GMT
Seems everyone bought as usual as it all vanished fairly quickly.
Cormacs damage control may well have paid off :-)
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Greenwood2
Member of DD Central
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jul 27, 2024 8:55:38 GMT
Seems everyone bought as usual as it all vanished fairly quickly. Cormacs damage control may well have paid off :-) Of course it wasn't an HDR loan, although the company going down, isn't necessarily related to the type of loan. Nice to see the horses haven't all been spooked, just hope that is the right decision.
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Post by redpete on Jul 27, 2024 13:43:42 GMT
Seems everyone bought as usual as it all vanished fairly quickly. Cormacs damage control may well have paid off :-) Email notifying opportunity received 10:06 26th July. Registered interest just after midnight. Confirmation that I was allowed to look at it 05:29 this morning. Logged on 14:35 today, signed NDA and it was already fully subscribed. Is it always like this?
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Post by Ace on Jul 27, 2024 15:00:55 GMT
Seems everyone bought as usual as it all vanished fairly quickly. Cormacs damage control may well have paid off :-) Email notifying opportunity received 10:06 26th July. Registered interest just after midnight. Confirmation that I was allowed to look at it 05:29 this morning. Logged on 14:35 today, signed NDA and it was already fully subscribed. Is it always like this? Loans do often fill quickly, but can depend on many variable factors such as: general sentiment, size of raise, proximity (time wise) to other raises, cash available from recent paybacks, etc. Some of the raise will have been reserved by regular investors. Some reservations won't be taken up by those investors. As those reservations are cancelled they will be made available to others. So, it's worth keeping an eye out to see if new availability appears.
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Post by Ace on Jul 27, 2024 15:14:32 GMT
That's an extremely impressive initial return. I agree, it's the best return we've had so far as a first tranche profit from any of the HDR loans. As it was the first repayment from the 3rd law firm, I'm hoping that it's indicative of future tranches and loans to that law firm. Looking at the details of the profits from each case in this tranche shows a different pattern to that from other law firms. The profits from others have shown a strong correlation between Days-To-Settle and Profit. These cases show a much weaker correlation in that regard. I wonder if our profits from these cases are more closely tied to being a percentage of the damages received, as opposed to time lent, than for loans to other law firms. Of course, it could be that profits from longer cases don't rise as much as those to the other law firms, so the XIRRs might still end up roughly equivalent, or even less! I don't recall reading about any difference in the offer document, but it could be that I didn't study it in sufficient detail given that I'd already invested in lots of other HDR loans by the time this one came around. One other thought is that, if the profits are more tightly related to the damages, it might make it less risky as it might make it less likely that the law firm would suffer losses on cases, and thus they would be less likely to run into trouble. I realise that there are way too many ifs, butt's and mights there. I'll drop Cormac a line to see if he can enlighten me. I received a reply to my query very quickly, but forgot to post it due to other distractions. Yes this first offer via the third law firm is an outlier - at the outset with this law firm, we negotiated that we got principal back plus 25% of its revenues. That with the benefit of hindsight was probably a good deal (for those older claims at least - we took on some of their older claims that already had billable hours on the clock). But, to improve visibility and predictability for investors, for all subsequent offers via this law firm, the SPV gets a flat 56% per annum return calculated on an actual/365 basis, with the clock restarting at zero from the date cases need to be replaced.
Time will tell if this offer outperforms.I've modified the reply so as to avoid identifying the borrower, as that would be against the forum rules.
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Post by Ace on Jul 30, 2024 19:12:33 GMT
The AxiaFunder track record page has just been updated. See here: www.axiafunder.com/track-record. The commercial cases are showing an exceptional average IRR of 35%. An amazing return for anyone who invested an equal amount in all loans. Unfortunately for me, my largest loan by a considerable margin (#1866) including paying a premium for some of it on the SM, is showing a loss of 96% 😢. Another harsh lesson for me to maintain diversification within the platform. This was an ISA eligible loan where I stupidly/greedily decided to use up my remaining ISA allowance back in the day when ISAs were less flexible. Diversify, diversify, diversify. |
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billt
Posts: 105 
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Post by billt on Jul 31, 2024 9:53:23 GMT
Excellent advise, learned my lesson the hard way and ironically mainly due to Ace.
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Post by redpete on Aug 1, 2024 17:37:49 GMT
Diversify, diversify, diversify. My preference would be to split my initial £1k over at least 4 loans, maybe increasing when I get a better feel for the deals. Then I find out today that £1k is the minimum investment per loan.
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Post by Ace on Aug 1, 2024 17:53:56 GMT
Diversify, diversify, diversify. My preference would be to split my initial £1k over at least 4 loans, maybe increasing when I get a better feel for the deals. Then I find out today that £1k is the minimum investment per loan. The minimum used to be £500 per loan. There was a discussion about the increase in this thread, starting around here: p2pindependentforum.com/post/442724/thread.
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