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Post by df on Apr 13, 2019 16:28:44 GMT
FC is one out of nine P2P platforms I invest in, But they are the only one I cannot see how my investments stand. Before you hit the sell button it shows how much out your total portfolio is available. All our 4 accounts show about 90% to 95% available,. What you don't know is what proportion of the unavailable 5% to 10% is dodgy. For that reason I am running my accounts down. In fairness, they did start off showing 11%. You are advised there is a 1% fee & you expect 3% to 4% defaults. Our 4 accounts show between 5% & 7.6% earnings. That is fair enough, but what about the 5% to 10% you can't get at !!!!!! They also state 40% default recovery, which can take many years. I am currently showing 1% recovery, but it is early days. All in all, they may not be that bad, but because of the unknowns I am not prepared to take the chance. Could do with others keep posting sell waiting times, so we can get a better idea of what is happening. I've sold out some time ago. Have 55 loans - 52 bad debt and 3 late. The oldest defaults are about 2 years old, the newest Oct 2018 - 4.58% recovered so far. So yes, as you said, it can take many years to get a projected 40% recovery. I consider myself lucky to have no capital loss on FC. My current portfolio of defaults is half the amount of what I've earned. In my two and half years with FC I have 2.1% annualised return, so in worst case scenario it will be at around 1% profit. Could've chuck this money in one of instant access bank accounts and have better return without any risk and headache.
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criston
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Post by criston on Apr 13, 2019 16:35:21 GMT
I know what you mean. I am currently 30% sold out. Within in a month or so I will be 70% sold out if selling times do not increase too much.
We will never know how the missing interest payments would have covered the unknown defaults amongst the loan parts sold.
I am resigned to having extra defaults by the time I am completely sold out, which hopefully will be well covered by interest payments on new loans on other platforms.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 13, 2019 16:48:06 GMT
They really don't make it easy to figure out what the recoveries are from your defaults - you need to trawl through the transactions, and knock up a spreadsheet of what loan part numbers are which loan. But once you've done that... they actually seem competent at recovering the amounts. I'm currently on about 45% of defaulted amount still outstanding - first default late 2015. Two of the seven defaults are 100% repaid, one with all interest.
Oh, yes. That's if you ignore the Short Term London Loan... We'll gloss over that.
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criston
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Post by criston on Apr 13, 2019 16:56:15 GMT
adrianc. Are you saying you have 55% default recoveries?
Just edited. I see it was based on just 7 defaults. I have many more.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 13, 2019 17:22:12 GMT
adrianc. Are you saying you have 55% default recoveries? Yes.
£160 original exposure to 8 parts in 7 loans £136.51 outstanding at default £60.61 outstanding now, plus 79p written off on one loan (sorry, "2x100%" was a slight exaggeration) £78.93 paid to date in recoveries, inc £3.82 interest paid above defaulted amount on one loan. So work it on the simple £60.61 outstanding, it's 55.6% recovery. Include the write-off and interest, leaving a £57.58 shortfall, and it's 57.8% recovery. FC's loan origination and current model might be pants, but their recovery is better than I was expecting.
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Post by df on Apr 13, 2019 17:28:45 GMT
I know what you mean. I am currently 30% sold out. Within in a month or so I will be 70% sold out if selling times do not increase too much. We will never know how the missing interest payments would have covered the unknown defaults amongst the loan parts sold. I am resigned to having extra defaults by the time I am completely sold out, which hopefully will be well covered by interest payments on new loans on other platforms. Yes, it's very likely that your bad debt part of portfolio will increase. Most of "late" and "risk band removed" end up with "bad debt" badge. When I sold my last portion it took several days and I thought it was too long, used to be a couple of minutes. Since then the queue was getting longer and longer. Hopefully other platforms will compensate for your FC loss in a long run. Good luck!!!
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Apr 13, 2019 18:30:07 GMT
Don't overestimate your return. Try a test sell to see how much is late and then assume that 60%+ of these will default.
For information I have had 299 defaults since 2012, 28 so far in 2019 and my recovery stands at 31.87% as of toady. I do think 40% recovery (eventually) is realistic.
Been running down my FC since Sept 2017 and now down to less than 700 loans.
IMO FC has had its day for decent returns and come the next recession capital losses will be so high it will be another miss selling scandal (other than it will not as the T&C do spell out the risk).
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Post by df on Apr 13, 2019 18:30:48 GMT
They really don't make it easy to figure out what the recoveries are from your defaults - you need to trawl through the transactions, and knock up a spreadsheet of what loan part numbers are which loan. But once you've done that... they actually seem competent at recovering the amounts. I'm currently on about 45% of defaulted amount still outstanding - first default late 2015. Two of the seven defaults are 100% repaid, one with all interest. Oh, yes. That's if you ignore the Short Term London Loan... We'll gloss over that. Is it the famous "forever late" one? I avoided FC property loans because of low rates and no amortisation (SS offers for property looked much more attractive  But when new auto-bid regime was introduced it gave me A+ North Devon 22, 14 months late now - got this present few days before the borrower failed to repay the capital (no interest received for this one). Last month update - "We are currently still in the process of confirming the agreement required for settlement, and the legal documentation is still being negotiated.....". It looks from updates that the outcome is still miles away and I'll be lucky to get a small proportion of my capital back if it ever happens.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 14, 2019 7:35:13 GMT
Oh, yes. That's if you ignore the Short Term London Loan... We'll gloss over that. Is it the famous "forever late" one? Yes. The one that I totally ignored my personal loan cap for, for some bizarre reason. <slaps self, repeatedly> I sold everything viable and got out before Autobodgery became compulsory.
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criston
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Post by criston on Apr 14, 2019 13:45:54 GMT
I have started a separate thread called 'Selling Loans - Time frame' to try & consolidate information from here.
One thing struck me earlier on in this thread was someone saying all the loans in their sell order were delisted.
FC terms say 'If a monthly repayment is made on a loan before it is sold, the loan will be delisted. You may then need to start the selling process again if you were unable to sell the value you wanted'
Surely on that basis if the queue is over 31 days, interest/capital would be paid back on a majority of the loans being sold & no one would sell anything. What am I missing?
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Apr 14, 2019 15:16:01 GMT
I have started a separate thread called 'Selliing Loan Time Frame' to try & consolidate information from here. One thing struck me earlier on in this thread was someone saying all the loans in their sell order were delisted. FC terms say 'If a monthly repayment is made on a loan before it is sold, the loan will be delisted. You may then need to start the selling process again if you were unable to sell the value you wanted' Surely on that basis if the queue is over 31 days, interest/capital would be paid back on a majority of the loans being sold & no one would sell anything. What am I missing? Loans seem to remain for sale as long as the repayment is 'clean'. Any variation late etc removes the loan from the sale queue, you are effectively then in a position where to sell that loan part/parts you need to relist when the other sale completes. Not ideal and no real problem in the past, if the sales queue remains long then it will create interesting scenarios.
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Post by df on Apr 15, 2019 1:47:18 GMT
I have started a separate thread called 'Selliing Loan Time Frame' to try & consolidate information from here. One thing struck me earlier on in this thread was someone saying all the loans in their sell order were delisted. FC terms say 'If a monthly repayment is made on a loan before it is sold, the loan will be delisted. You may then need to start the selling process again if you were unable to sell the value you wanted' Surely on that basis if the queue is over 31 days, interest/capital would be paid back on a majority of the loans being sold & no one would sell anything. What am I missing? Loans seem to remain for sale as long as the repayment is 'clean'. Any variation late etc removes the loan from the sale queue, you are effectively then in a position where to sell that loan part/parts you need to relist when the other sale completes. Not ideal and no real problem in the past, if the sales queue remains long then it will create interesting scenarios. It does look like the chances of queue getting shorter are very slim, unless FS offers a wider range of incentives. By now all who wanted to risk their cash for iPad or shopping vouchers should be already in.... More likely FC's SM will join Ly in "Royston Vasey" club. Investors will have to accept the fate and hope for best possible outcome. Can't help not to compare. On LW and WLU boards the dominating issue is investment queue.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Apr 15, 2019 14:54:51 GMT
With no variable pricing tbere can only ever be a glut or a famine. And switching between the two can be very very fast.
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But when new auto-bid regime was introduced it gave me A+ North Devon 22, 14 months late now - got this present few days before the borrower failed to repay the capital (no interest received for this one). Last month update - "We are currently still in the process of confirming the agreement required for settlement, and the legal documentation is still being negotiated.....". It looks from updates that the outcome is still miles away and I'll be lucky to get a small proportion of my capital back if it ever happens.
