Effect of Whole Loans on Partial

Yes that is a very revealing graph. Firstly it would be better as a histogram because those sloping lines are misleading. Second it would be better to have another month to complete the cycle, because the seasonal effects are clearly important - a weekly histogram through December and January would show up the effects of holidays, and the variable behaviour of the institutional investors ( who surely must have some volume arrangement with FC over the break).
It is also important to appreciate that the top line is driven only by the supply of loans (nothing to do with the demand and mix of lender types) and that the dip through December and Jan is expected - we need to see Feb 15 when it comes.
Having noted all that, agreed there does seem to be a stabilising in the lending of individuals. I think that part of the problem (apart from the fact that the engines canna take much more cap'n) is that there has been a monthly ceiling at £18M twice in the year which seems to correspond with high rates and cashbacks - and this seems to be a cap on individual lender demand, not elastic because the market is limited and they will not advertise to potential lenders. Overall the individual demand does look to be growing slowly and it will be interesting to see if we hit high rates and caps in March - or whether FC can divert sufficient supply of loans to the institutional lenders to stabilise rates and avoid cashbacks.
Looking at the individual lender demand more closely, we should think of its split between repayments/interest and new money, and the effect on loan book growth. At a rough guess that individual lender demand must be about 50/50 repayments/interest and new money, with the consequent loan book still growing and therefore the proportion of repayment growing throughout the year. (£16M a month balances repayments of a loan book of around £600M). So we could say about £8M a month of new money from individuals and pretty flat.

Conclusion must be that the growth in the 'sales' and in the loanbook in 2014 has been very much due to the institutional lenders - and going forward FC cannot afford to lose their continued lending.

Edit: Agree with GSV's adjustment for property below. Say £20m of interest only loans which could have generated over £1M of principal repayments in the part-year if they were business loans, 36 month average amortised. (We received the interest and mostly 2% cash back but not the principal which is the smaller part of the early repayments under normal amortisation).

The flip side of this will be the huge walls of money hitting the markets when the massive multi-tranche property development loans get repaid...

Whether that will lead to lower rates, or to enabling FC to facilitate an increased deal flow remains to be seen.

That is true but the scale will be about £2M or more a month, in tranches. I do not see where FC are going with property loans, it all seems a bit tentative at the moment with few new large interest-only property loans, and a dabble with bridging. But maybe it is too early in the year.