adrian77
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,920
Likes: 4,145
|
Post by adrian77 on Feb 18, 2019 18:36:38 GMT
exactly - some people talk about FS loans as if they are loans with guaranteed interest which sadly they aren't! As mentioned a lot of us think the failure rate is far too high and the recovery rate far too low...
|
|
bg
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,368
Likes: 1,929
|
Post by bg on Feb 18, 2019 19:00:13 GMT
Yes but to do that you need to know the buyers marginal tax rate. I disagaree that currently its impossible for tax payers to know the effective rate to maturity. You know what the inherited tax liability is so you can work it out (and the onus should always be on the investor to work out their tax situation). Of course you never know what the actual maturity date will be as typically the loans run late - while some may close early. Easily fixed with a toggle dropdown on the SM page to select 0%/20%/40%/45% and for the webpage to render the appropriate column of pre-calculated data. Its not a trivial calculation, and its impractical to do for each and every loan part that may be of interest on the SM, unless as you've posted on the AC board you dump out from the FS website the full SM list every 15 mins and do your own analysis on the data. Thats fine for those with the technical skils to do so, and the overall level of investment on FS to make the upfroont effort worthwhile. I suspect other sophisticated/HNW investors on FS do similiar, but I'm talking about making life easier for the majority of FS lenders who are small retail investors by displaying the effective gross rate at the point of purchase. I disagree, it is a trivial calculation. It's just your marginal tax rate times the accrued interest (which FS display). That is the tax due on purchase if you are buying outside an ISA. That doesn't require a high level of technical knowledge or programming skills. Analysing the full SM regularly has nothing to do with working out the AER's. I actually don't work out the AER for anything, I think it's misleading of FS to display such things, ie an AER of 21% when buying at a discount with 30 days left when minimum of 50% of loans run over term. That is what is misleading. Turning back to the issue in point, the key things for me are:- 1. A borrower asking for a redemption statement does not mean they are about to repay and they are not obliged to. Many borrowers regularly ask for redemption amounts just to check where they are. Countless loans have been suspended by FS because of this and redemption does not happen. 2. If I want to sell a loan at a discount and someone wants to buy it in their ISA (and I believe the majority of SM purchases are done by ISA accounts) with full knowledge that a redemption statement has been requested, then we should be allowed to trade.
|
|
|
Post by pigbreeder on Feb 18, 2019 22:40:40 GMT
Thanks for the reply and the advice.
They might be hidden but it is helpful to come across explanations and information that at least one of us (and I suspect many more) would not be aware of on our own. Perhaps the "useful"posts could be shown in one forum and the commentaries (while sometimes amusing) put up elsewhere.
|
|
Godanubis
Member of DD Central
Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
Posts: 2,011
Likes: 1,013
|
Post by Godanubis on Feb 18, 2019 22:48:15 GMT
exactly - some people talk about FS loans as if they are loans with guaranteed interest which sadly they aren't! As mentioned a lot of us think the failure rate is far too high and the recovery rate far too low... Twins @ it Again Welendus arguably one of the most promising P2P platforms has an expected default rate of 10% and nobody thinks this is unreasonable. FS currently 7.6% is below this. FC had loans with expected 18% default rate. So perhaps you should change your thinking to more accurately reflect the actual default rates now we have several years of data over numerous platforms. Perhaps a median default found rate over the sector would clarify the situation and allow for realistic expectations. I agree recoveries should be speedy and efficient.
|
|
song
Member of DD Central
Posts: 83
Likes: 115
|
Post by song on Feb 19, 2019 7:31:38 GMT
I agree recoveries should be speedy and efficient. Not words one is ever likely to associate with FS
|
|
trium
Member of DD Central
Posts: 384
Likes: 304
|
Post by trium on Feb 19, 2019 8:34:00 GMT
Tax is not an issue if you have all your funds in FISA So you keep saying but many lenders have more to invest than their ISA limits allow. Some people on here will put £20k into a single loan and will rely on selling before term to evade avoid tax, which therefore is an issue to those who can't or don't want to sell early. It's also an issue for those who are already subscribing to an IFISA elsewhere this year (mine is with AC) and are not legally eligible to have one here. Transferring old ISAs around is a pain in the bum - especially with IFs since you have to cash out before you can transfer - and most providers will expect to be your current year provider when you open the account. In practical terms I don't think you could have established IFISAs across more than three platforms so far, even if you have six figures available in old ISAs
|
|
ozboy
Member of DD Central
Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
Posts: 3,168
Likes: 4,859
|
Post by ozboy on Feb 19, 2019 9:52:50 GMT
exactly - some people talk about FS loans as if they are loans with guaranteed interest which sadly they aren't! As mentioned a lot of us think the failure rate is far too high and the recovery rate far too low... Twins @ it Again Welendus arguably one of the most promising P2P platforms has an expected default rate of 10% and nobody thinks this is unreasonable. FS currently 7.6% is below this. FC had loans with expected 18% default rate. So perhaps you should change your thinking to more accurately reflect the actual default rates now we have several years of data over numerous platforms. Perhaps a median default found rate over the sector would clarify the situation and allow for realistic expectations. I agree recoveries should be speedy and efficient. And if you apply the actual, "real" Default Rate?
|
|
adrian77
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,920
Likes: 4,145
|
Post by adrian77 on Feb 19, 2019 11:19:48 GMT
probably a tad higher - in fact I hate to think ..there are over £3m in loans that were activated in 2016 and not one defaulted. if we take the art loans alone that is another £2+ million which should be defaulted so that is £5m and there are many many others which are seriously late and not looking good e.g. land in Lytham St Annes so there is another quick £2.85m...so there is £8m without even looking!
To me a defaulted loan is one which is 1 month and and not 1 week off 3 years late as in Rishton!
Don't be concerned - there is nothing to worry about here - just diversify and flip on the SM and relax as 20%+ income comes flooding in...
|
|
SteveT
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,875
Likes: 7,924
|
Post by SteveT on Feb 19, 2019 11:30:54 GMT
Everything that can be sold is up for sale. OK so, of your total current FS loan holdings (as listed on the " Sell my investments" page), what percentage by value are " Not available for resale" (whatever the reason) ?
|
|
adrian77
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,920
Likes: 4,145
|
Post by adrian77 on Feb 19, 2019 20:54:44 GMT
to return to the thread subject
Are these 2 loans related - I think so but got so confused trying to do my own DD. When I am confused I am worried and believe me I am very confused.
well that is not how I would put it- more like ,as likely as Nigel Farage voting to remain in the EU!
I think the first repayment due was £400K (Lytham) which is now 9 months late and £2.85m is due within 6 weeks viz 28/03/2019
ditto Pagefield first repayment of £171K is over 4 months late and £1.5m due by 07.05.19
If these 2 are linked that that is £1.5M + £2.85m = £4.35m on 2 highly speculative if not problematic loans - please tell me I am wrong!
|
|
ozboy
Member of DD Central
Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
Posts: 3,168
Likes: 4,859
|
Post by ozboy on Feb 19, 2019 22:31:34 GMT
to return to the thread subject Are these 2 loans related - I think so but got so confused trying to do my own DD. When I am confused I am worried and believe me I am very confused. well that is not how I would put it- more like ,as likely as Nigel Farage voting to remain in the EU! I think the first repayment due was £400K (Lytham) which is now 9 months late and £2.85m is due within 6 weeks viz 28/03/2019 ditto Pagefield first repayment of £171K is over 4 months late and £1.5m due by 07.05.19 If these 2 are linked that that is £1.5M + £2.85m = £4.35m on 2 highly speculative if not problematic loans - please tell me I am wrong! Well, ask 'em? An honest, decent and reputable Platform will tell you all you need to know about any and all "connections", so that you're making an informed decision.
|
|
adrian77
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,920
Likes: 4,145
|
Post by adrian77 on Feb 20, 2019 9:27:41 GMT
will ask FS when I get a few more details - may get an answer - you never know!
I note that Pagefield is showing at CH as having 3 charges
Feb 18 - charge with FS Nov 18 - 2 charges with G* funding
So what's going on here ?
I think either CH is out of date or the borrower has taken a second charge on the mill - but hang on, if FS have the first charge they would have had to agree to this?
OK it does not affect their priority on the charge but it means the second charge holders can potentially call in the loan. Also there is the tincy-wincy question of how the borrower is going to fund both the FS and G* charges.
G* is a small credit house and yet to produce its first year profit and has charges against it - mainly in 2017 and 2018 so I wonder what sort of interest they are charging!
Well looks like Pagefield and Lytham are another interesting 2 loans here!
|
|
09dolphin
Member of DD Central
Posts: 638
Likes: 866
|
Post by 09dolphin on Feb 20, 2019 9:49:21 GMT
Does anyone know when these loan will be repaid. What, if anything, FS are doing to ensure any sort of payment will be made in the foreseeable future.
I do know that I no longer trust any assertations FS make and frankly unless you have money to burn I don't know why anyone would believe anything FS assert. I know I am waiting for numerous repayment and I'd guess that if I get my capital back I will be lucky and forget any interest payment.
I believe FS will be unable to cover the costs of prospective legal action. And I should say that I am more than happy to contribute to any "fighting fund"
|
|
Doc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 196
Likes: 211
|
Post by Doc on Feb 20, 2019 10:06:30 GMT
I know I am waiting for numerous repayment and I'd guess that if I get my capital back I will be lucky and forget any interest payment.
I thought you had nearly exited dolphin ? - I noticed you mentioned having less than £1000 capital + £300 interest remaining on FS.
|
|
adrian77
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,920
Likes: 4,145
|
Post by adrian77 on Jun 22, 2019 19:37:18 GMT
Just been tidying up my next update for my top 40 - I am sure I saw the figures for St annes somewhere but can't find them.
However this is looking horrendous to me - I think there is £2.95m owing as there was was a facility of £3.25m with £300K not drawn?
I just can't see 1.3 acres being worth this let alone the FS valuation and that is before the legal status of the security which may (I think it is) or may not be a snaggette
I am in the first facility (forget to undo the redeem renew switch) and I am not 100% certain I will get all my money back - as to those of you in the 5th charge - good luck!
Time for t'pub as al this FS nonsense is just plain depressing...
|
|